As usual, week 1 for NFL DFS was fairly unpredictable.  We did hit on tight ends #1 (Travis Kelce), #3 (Juwan Johnson!!!), and #7 (George Kittle) from the main slate but also had some duds like Zach Ertz (hamstring) and a couple deep dart throws who didn’t have a prominent role (Jordan Akins and Kylen Granson).  At least we avoided Mike Gesicki (0 points) and Pat Freiermuth (3.4 points) with our fades. 

As a reminder, here is how we separate the groups here.  We do it this way so that you have an option no matter how much (or how little) money you have available to spend on tight end.

Top Tier:  the safest and most expensive guys available if you want to pay up

Mid Tier: affordable players that offer the best bang for your buck

Value Tier: the bargain bin players that are risky by nature but can have the huge upside in terms of value created

Fades: The guys we feel are the worst value proposition that you should actively avoid

For Week 2 we now have actual statistical information from the first week to analyze so this is where the real money is made.

 

Top Tier

Darren Waller - Darren Waller got 19 targets last week and Jon Gruden, who coached the legendary Buccaneers defense to a Super Bowl, said he was the “best player he’s ever coached and that he’ll keep going to him”.  The Bills hardly even use a tight end with Dawson Knox playing less than 50% of the snaps yet Knox was still able to catch four passes vs. this defense.  If you have the money to spend up, Waller is about as safe as it gets and he’s not even as expensive as Kelce was last week on the main slate. Pro Tio: Waller is a much better value on Yahoo DFS as he accounts for 15.2% of your budget on DraftKings but only 11% of your budget on Yahoo.  So if you want to use him, you should make that lineup on Yahoo, not DK. 

Kyle Pitts - Fantasy football is a funny game.  I was actually lower than most people on Kyle Pitts coming into the season.  Yet now people are down on him after 1 week while I was actually very encouraged by his usage week 1.  He lined up at wide receiver for 37 snaps - only Travis Kelce (38) and TJ Hockenson (45) played more WR snaps and neither are available for the main slate.  Between Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin, the Buccaneers allowed 9 receptions to tight ends.  And Trevon Diggs should be occupied with Calvin Ridley meaning Matt Ryan will have to look for better matchups.  This is probably the last time Pitts will be this cheap.  Kyle Pitts is a fairly even value on both DraftKings and Yahoo.

Mid Tier

Dallas Goedert - Ertz playing the slot role and pushing Goedert into the in-line role is a thorn in his side but, not only did Goedert score anyway, but Ertz hurt his hamstring and might be limited this week.  The 49ers last week let TJ Hockenson run wild on them as Jacquisky Tartt isn’t quite the tight end killer he once was, allowing Hockenson to catch 4 of his 8 passes directly against him.  I think at this price point Goedert is going to be one of the safer plays this week.  Dallas Goedert is more valuable on Yahoo DFS than DraftKings based on the percentages.  

Noah Fant - The reason that I was fading Noah Fant at his ADP was because he didn’t have a clear path to being a top two target on his team with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy there.  Well, Sutton had a rough time last week with only one catch and now Jerry Jeudy is out with a high ankle sprain.  The Jaguars and safety Andrew Wingard have never been great vs. the tight end and last week they let the likes of Pharaoh Brown gash them for 67 yards.  If no-name players like Pharaoh Brown on a terrible team like the Texans can abuse this defense then Fant should have no problem getting it done this Sunday. Fant is a much better value on DraftKings than he is on Yahoo based on the numbers.

Value Tier

Jared Cook - Cook’s usage was great last week as he played the pass catching snaps while Donald Parham was relegated to the blocking work.  The production for the whole Chargers offense last week might have been inflated by the high snap count with 83 offensive snaps but guess what? The Chargers get the Dallas Cowboys this week which should be another shootout with high snap counts.  The game has the highest over/under of 55 points and we just watched Rob Gronkowski dunk on this team on Thursday night.  Cook at his price point is a pretty decent bet for some productivity - offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi brought him over from New Orleans for a reason. Jared Cook is a slightly better value on Yahoo DFS than DraftKings. 

Cole Kmet -  We liked Cole Kmet but even his usage was a  bit surprising - he played 51 snaps compared to only 14 for Jimmy Graham.  Even better, Kmet played 22 snaps at WR which is essentially the “Travis Kelce role” in the offense that Matt Nagy designed back in Kansas City.  The Bears came out as favorites vs. the Bengals who are your classic good offense/bad defense team which leads to a lot of scoring for both teams.  Kmet is a sneaky pick here and he's similarly valued on both Yahoo and DraftKings, whichever you prefer.

BONUS Dart Throw - James O'Shaughnessy - I’m not quite sure what Urban Meyer is doing.  But he strangely gave James O’Shaughnessy essentially IDEAL deployment in week 1.  O'Shaughnessy lined up at WR 32 times which was top five for tight ends and tied with Logan Thomas.  He didn’t pass block one time.  And he got six targets.  Whether that holds, I don’t know.  But I do know he’s pretty much free on both Yahoo and DraftKings if you just need a bottom tier priced guy to throw in there to make the lineup work. 

Fades

Rob Gronkowski -  I know that people are fired up about the Tom Brady to Rob Gronkowski old time connection.  And he did look good Week 1.  But now he’s priced much higher - especially on Yahoo where he is the most expensive tight end for the main slate.  There is a good chance the Buccaneers cruise to an easy victory and that’s actually not good for a team with as many weapons as they have with a tight end that blocks quite a bit.  Look at George Kittle last week vs. the Lions.  The game was in hand so they didn’t need to force the issue and the receiving numbers for Kittle were small.  That could easily happen this week with the spread being double digits on this game so I’m not paying up for the big fella here.

Tyler Higbee - Tyler Higbee had pretty good deployment last week and he caught a couple passees.  But I’m still not convinced that a guy who blocked on 21% of pass plays last year is all of a sudden going to be a focal point of this offense.  I’m also not convinced that Higbee is going to be getting more targets than Robert Woods like he did last week.  If Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are still the focal points of this offense, Higbee’s ceiling is capped to a certain degree and he’s really not worth paying for.  I’d like to see him do it twice in a row before we start relying on a player who runs a 4.8 forty.