NASCAR DFS Playbook: Sports Clips 200

As the Truck and Cup series are now in the playoffs, believe it or not the Xfinity series still has three races left in the regular season with Darlington, Richmond, and Bristol closing out the year before they begin the playoffs with 12 drivers. So we get the rare instance of having the Xfinity drivers race before the Trucks this weekend and we have one hell of a DFS slate on our hands. Denny Hamlin is embroiled in some personal issues at the moment but he’s stepping into the 54-car and he’s severely underpriced (more on that shortly).

But we get an exciting weekend for DFS at the Lady in Black, the Egg, the Track Too Tough to Tame, etc. There are plenty of nicknames here and we’re in for some solid racing. Darlington is 1.33 miles in length, so the laps tick off quickly and it usually leads to some phenomenal racing. Check out this finish from the Spring 2020 race…

This is one of the most exciting tracks for DFS and it’s a week I think I’m going to go pretty heavy since it’s the last NASCAR week without NFL. Once we calculate for caution laps we’re looking at just under 100 dominator points on the table for this race. And we have a ton of PD to look at from the likes of Austin Cindric, Denny Hamlin, Austin Dillon, and Tyler Reddick. We will have a competition caution following lap 20 and the stages are broken into 45-45-57 segments. So let’s dive into this week’s driver pool…

Driver Pool 

Austin Cindric ($11,300; Starting P24) DraftKings screwed up on a ton of pricing this week, but Cindric’s price seems about right. A top five will get him 5X value but he’s one of the two favorites to take home the championship in Phoenix so he’s certainly capable of getting up front and leading some laps. Historically, this isn’t one of his better tracks. However, he did lead 34 laps and win the first stage in the Spring race prior to wrecking out and he did grab a top five here in 2020. 

Austin Dillon ($10,800; Starting P35) I understand it’s probably not the best equipment (he’s in the 31-car), but this is still a Cup series driver starting outside the top 30. In the Cup series, Dillon has an average finish of 12.40 in ten races at Darlington, including a runner-up finish at the Southern 500 last year. Dillon’s viable in all formats for this race.

Brandon Jones ($10,600; Starting P25) I really wanted to leave Jones out of the Playbook. And it’s not that he’s a fade but I just didn’t want to write up every single expensive play this week. Alas, that’s going to happen anyway. Jones has returned negative DFS points in four of his last six races but he usually performs better when he’s offering PD and he did win this race a year ago in addition to finishing third here in the Spring after starting P22. He’s rarely Cash game eligible so I’d stick with just GPP’s this week and given the drivers priced around him, he could be a low-owned play as well.

Denny Hamlin ($10,400; Starting P14) This is where DraftKings absolutely screwed up. This is where we look and say we might have the best value play on the slate. Which is crazy considering this is a $10K play. But Denny Hamlin priced this low is just stupid. He offers PD, is in the best car, he’s a Cup series driver, and he led about 30 laps in this race a year ago before finishing fifth. I just don’t get this. He hits 5X value just by finishing third and we know he’ll likely have no problems getting to the front and collecting dominator points. He is Cash and GPP eligible this week.

Noah Gragson ($9,900; Starting P8) The price tag is high, but I think he’s a contrarian candidate to lead some laps on Saturday. Darlington is a track he’s actually tamed pretty well, despite not having a win. He’s never finished worse than eighth here and he’s led 40+ laps in two of his last three races here. Not to mention, I have tried to stress how much he’s turned his season around after the dreadful beginning to 2021 and it was announced that he’ll be back in the 9-car with JR Motorsports next year. I’m only doing 20 builds on Saturday but I think I want Gragson in three of them.

Harrison Burton ($9,400; Starting P6) I it was a tossup between Justin Allgaier ($9,700) and Burton. And I’m going the contrarian route with Burton. I’ll squeeze Allgaier into some builds because he did win here earlier in the year so I can’t fade him completely. But I’ve been sleeping on Burton too long and will try to get him into a couple GPP builds. In three races here he’s finished 11th, 6th, and 9th and he did run up front here in the Spring with an average running position of sixth. He’s finished in the top five in five of his last nine races and even at Pocono, where he wrecked, he led 21 laps. This $9K range is presenting us with some contrarian options. If you hit on the right driver(s) that can finish well and collect some dominator points, you’ll be in great shape in GPP’s.

A.J. Allmendinger ($9,000; Starting P2) Perhaps there is no hotter driver in Xfinity right now than Allmendinger. In his last four races he’s won and finished as the runner-up three times, but granted two of those races were road courses. He also won the Cup series race at Indianapolis’ Road Course. He’s on a heater. He’s priced down this week and he’s on the front row. He finished 13th here back in May but he did have an average running position in the top five for most of the race. If you want to get a little more contrarian, I will have some shares of Daniel Hemric ($9,200), who is starting on the pole, but I won’t go crazy given that Hamlin will likely find his way to the front.

Michael Annett ($8,100; Starting P19) If you’ve read my pieces on Michael Annett in the past, you’ll know this is right about we want to target him. He’s normally more expensive when he’s starting higher so this is a good spot to get exposure. And the best part is that if the field is trying to cram in those $10K drivers, they may not be able to fit Annett in. In his last two races here he’s finished seventh and eighth. That is vintage Michael Annett. He’s typically a good bet to finish just inside the top ten. My big concern is the leg injury he suffered many weeks back. It’s kept him out of the 1-car for a couple races but if he’s back to his old self, he’s a nice play in this spot. If he can somehow finish in seventh then he’s returning 6X value. But even a top ten returns 5X.

Brandon Brown ($7,600; Starting P23) I understand the appeal in going to Brown this week. It looks like he has some PD on his side, but he has severely cooled off from the great start he got off to this season. I think I prefer him more in Cash games because he might be a fade for me in GPP’s. Truthfully, I hope he wrecks. But if you don’t share that sentiment with me then so be it, I’ll write him up further. In six races here he has four top 20’s. But he does need a top 15 to return 5X value. A lot of players will target the PD here, but in GPP’s I think I like this next driver a little bit more.

Ryan Sieg ($7,500; Starting P12) With so much chalk on this slate, you have to differentiate somehow. This might be a week when I’m heavier on Sieg than the field. Sieg has actually thrived at this track without practice and qualifying. It’s very odd, but in the three races here since NASCAR returned from its COVID-19 hiatus, Sieg has three top tens including a third-place finish at this very race a year ago. Now could this be a trap? Sure. But there aren’t a ton of drivers in this range that I have a ton of confidence in. So as strange as it is, this is one of Sieg’s best tracks and he’s in play as a low-owned GPP option.

Colin Garrett ($6,500; Starting P31) Garrett is a driver with Top 15-20 upside so he’s going to be everyone’s favorite value play. He had a mechanical issue during the Spring 2020 race, but he’s still a nice value option here if he runs a clean race. He hits value if he basically just moves up ten spots and he crushes value with anything more than that. Hard to call him a slate breaker when he’ll likely carry a good amount of ownership, but he is in play for both Cash and GPP contests.

Kyle Weatherman ($6,000; Starting P37) Historically speaking, Weatherman doesn’t have great luck here. But to diversify your lineups so you aren’t super heavy on Garrett I do like pivoting to Weatherman. Prior to last week’s race at Daytona, he grabbed top 20’s at New Hampshire and Michigan and he finished in the top 25 at IRC. That’s basically all we need from him this week; a top 25 finish gets us 29 points. I’d even be content if he finished 27th. I’d take that 4X value and run with it.

Josh Williams ($5,300; Starting P16) I don’t love Williams this week but the rest of the field may look at this starting spot and think he’s starting too high. And they aren’t wrong. I’ve been waiting for Williams to cool off and it just hasn’t happened. Could it happen here? Yes, the Lady in Black can be very unforgiving. He had a suspension issue here earlier in the season but in the two Darlington races a year ago he finished 15th and 16th. He’s live for another top 15, but if you want some PD in this range then look to the next driver.

Timmy Hill ($5,200; Starting P29) I wish he was starting just a little further back, but we can still make lemonade here. Timmy Hill has run eight races at Darlington in the Xfinity series and in three of those races he finished outside the top 30 but two of those instances were either due to a vibration or an accident. Now the other five races, he actually did pretty well by Timmy Hill’s standards. The other five finishes are in the top 23 including a couple in the top 20. In the truck series he’s surprisingly recorded a pair of top tens at Darlington so it’s bizarre because we think of Hill as a superspeedway punt or a Bristol target. He’s actually not awful at Darlington as long as he runs clean. Now you’re not in the clear with this race until he crosses the finish line. Don’t get cocky if he’s running in the top 20 in stage 2 or even in stage 3 with 20-25 laps left. He needs to run a complete race for us. But I do like this play in GPP’s if pivoting off Garrett. My lone concern with him is that he’s in the 66-car this week. I’d much prefer him in the 61-car so the equipment is the only thing keeping me from a little more exposure.

Jade Buford ($4,600; Starting P20) Buford is about as cheap as I want to go this week. Prior to Daytona he showed that he is a top 20 driver in this field. He finished 35th here earlier in the year, but in his last 13 races he has nine finishes in the top 20 including another race where he finished 21st. DK priced him perfectly because if he holds his spot, he’s returning 5X value so that’s what we should hope for in GPP’s. If he can somehow move up and finish 17th he’ll get 6X value. But remember, this track is brutal on drivers without much experience here as we saw in Buford’s first race here.

Core Drivers