NASCAR DFS Playbook: UNOH 200

So this Playbook is starting to be written on Tuesday night for a couple reasons. It’s a very busy week for NASCAR. We don’t get racing on Sunday with the NFL until next week and rather than have a doubleheader, each series will be featured under the lights at Bristol. So we get racing Thursday, Friday, and Saturday night this week. This track creates some of the most exciting racing we’ll see this year. Unfortunately, the DraftKings contests are lacking this week. So this slate lacks some appeal in terms of what we’ll get exposure to. We might be better suited for Cash games this week for the Truck series, but I’ll still deliver my favorite plays and strategies below. 

Also, we need to remember this is the final playoff race in the round of ten. Carson Hocevar, Austin Hill, Zane Smith, and Chandler Smith are the bottom four drivers at the moment and two will move on. Arguably all playoff drivers are in play because we’ll see more strategy and aggressive moves from them to make it to the round of eight. Here’s a breakdown of the playoff standings.

We’ve got 200 laps with this race starting shortly after 9:00pm ET Thursday night so be sure you get your nap in ahead of time. 200 laps mean roughly 140 dominator points so we can possibly look for two-dominator builds for Thursday’s race. I don’t know how they’re divided just yet but I imagine they will be run in 50-50-100 or 60-60-80 lap segments (SPOILER ALERT: Pockrass tweeted it'll be 55-55-90) with NO competition caution mixed in. Now for what it’s worth, Bristol for me is much more enjoyable to watch than it is for DFS. I may go with just three lineups since the contests aren’t that appealing. It’s a short, half-mile track, where you can fall multiple laps down quickly and a wreck into the wall may not look like much damage but it could severely alter the setup for the trucks and even the smallest run into the wall could result in a DNF.

Driver Pool 

Sam Mayer ($11,900; Starting P39) The difference between Sam Mayer in the 32-truck and Bret Holmes is night and day. In three races this year, Mayer has three top tens. In four finishes, Holmes has just one finish in the top 30. Mayer offers a TON of PD for this race and he prefers short track racing. How do we know this? Well, he almost won at Gateway in this series last year but followed that up with a win at this very track a year ago. Now he will be chalk. PD is hard to identify at short tracks because if a driver falls a lap or two down, it can be difficult to make those laps up. I prefer him more in Cash than GPP’s.

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,000; Starting P2) I’m hearing rumblings on social media that JHN and the 4-truck have been “off” the last handful of races. Following the Olympic hiatus he has two runner-up finishes in three races and he’s still capable of collecting dominator points. In five of six races here he’s finished in the top eight including three races here where he finished third, and he led over 100 laps here in 2018. Creed is hogging the playoff wins at the moment, but look for JHN to contend Thursday night. He’ll start on the front row next to Sheldon Creed.

Sheldon Creed ($10,600; Starting P1) Creed is on an absolute tear. He won the last two races at Darlington and Gateway while leading over 100 laps in both races. Another 100-lap dominating performance is on tap this week. Additionally, there’s some narrative street with Creed this week. It was announced early on Tuesday that he would be joining Richard Childress Racing in the Xfinity series next season and it’s very well deserved. But he wants to close out this season with another championship win and he could head to victory lane for the third straight race. Also, his price has dropped a bit over the last two races and he keeps winning. Historically, he’s just been so-so at Bristol, but he has a lot of momentum right now.

Zane Smith ($9,700; Starting P9) One of these days, Zane Smith will break the slate. He always has speed, but the finishes just aren’t there for him. He’s under $10K so I really like him and he will offers a little PD as well. He collects a handful of dominator points every race as well so I may aim to be heavier than the field in GPP’s. In his lone race at Bristol last September he finished 17th but had an average running position inside the top five for a vast majority of the race. Do not sleep on Zane for Thursday’s race.

Grant Enfinger ($9,400; Starting P6) I usually whiff on Enfinger and if being honest, I prefer Zane over him. However, Grant has a great resume at Bristol. Enfinger has four top tens here with an average finish of 6.25 and he led over 50 laps here back in 2019. Also, Enfinger has finished in the top six in each of his last five races in the 98-truck heading into this race. He makes for a nice leverage GPP play that could collect some dominator points and a strong finish.

Tyler Ankrum ($9,000; Starting P18) Ankrum is still tough to trust this week. He has looked better of late, but he still has a little bit of bad luck that strikes him at the worst times. He had a phenomenal run here last year. He finished seventh overall, but led over 50 laps and even finished top two in the first two stages. I still prefer him more in GPP’s, but he will have some PD on his side on Thursday that’ll raise some intrigue for Cash contests. He will likely return value if he finishes in the top ten.

Josh Berry ($8,700; Starting P17) Josh Berry LOVES short track racing. He won the Xfinity race at Martinsville and while these are two completely different half-mile tracks, Berry prefers this style of racing. My only concern is that he’s back in the 25-truck and while he’s had decent performances in this truck, a top 12 may be his ceiling. I still think he’s an intriguing play in Cash games but not one you necessarily need to jam into your lineups. Tyler Ankrum probably has more upside, but also a lower floor.

Johnny Sauter ($8,400; Starting P13) Yep… Another week where I like Johnny Sauter for GPP’s. Might as well burn my money now. I do like that since the playoffs started (for which he’s not eligible) he does have a couple top ten finishes at Gateway and Darlington. And historically he’s run well at Bristol, but we should know that track history hasn’t really mattered with Sauter over the past 16 months. But since I mentioned it, he hasn’t finished worse than 11th in his last 11 races here. He won this race in 2018 and has plenty of top fives at this track. If he can steal another top five, he’ll exceed 5X value. And if he wrecks then at least his radio communication will be worth listening to.

Taylor Gray ($8,100; Starting P35) This is the kind of track where, 1. Gray will be chalky because of his starting spot, and 2. He might piss off some drivers. Our biggest complaint about the Truck and Xfinity series are that these folks don’t really know how to drive. Taylor Gray has showcased that in ARCA before and he is a little wreckless at times. This isn’t a track where that works in his favor. Given the PD and the variance with him, I prefer him more for GPP’s. I don’t have enough faith in him for Cash games.

Chandler Smith ($8,000; Starting P7) My apologies on missing on Smith initially. Simply glossed over him, but he's firmly in play as a driver who could finish in the top five. How do we know this? In two races here he's finished fifth and second and he comes with a little PD if he stays up front all night. He will need a top five to hit 5X value, but we're looking at a potential dark horse to go out and win this race and since he's currently on the outside of the top eight, we have to think he has a strong race if he stays clean.

Derek Kraus ($7,800; Starting P15) I don’t love Kraus this week but I think he’s worth a dash of exposure in GPP’s. In last year’s race he finished 16th (although somebody got DQ’d so he’s in the books as finishing 15th) but he had an average running position inside the top ten. And he only has one race here so the sample size is small but he’s no stranger to finding his way into the carnage and Matt does compare Bristol to like a mini-Talladega in terms of wrecks that can ruin your DFS night. Just keep exposure on Kraus to GPP’s but this is even a driver I’ll be light on.

Carson Hocevar ($7,600; Starting P8) I typically don’t play Hocevar too much. He has a nice floor, but he doesn’t quite have a great ceiling. He’s only raced here once and finished 17th but he’s starting in the top ten and after all this is a cutoff race for the playoffs and he’s currently ahead of the playoff cut line by about eight points. So he needs a solid run here and he does have a top 5-10 in him. He could be quite popular in GPP’s as a driver in this price range that could finish well and return value that way. If you want to get a little more contrarian in this range, you can look at Drew Dollar. He's been pretty tough to watch, but he's still in Kyle Busch's 51-truck so the setup should be there and he's getting practice in the ARCA race earlier Thursday night.

Timmy Hill ($7,300; Starting P32) This is a high price tag for Timmy Hill. However, Hill really likes Bristol. In two Truck races here he’s finished 17th and 20th. This week he starts outside the top 30 so a top 20 arguably gets him to 5X value and everything after that is gravy. He is not a value play you want to be overly heavy on. Spread exposure around, but Hill is in play for Cash and GPP lineups.

Doug Coby ($6,900; Starting P30) Stepping into the 24-truck as the “nice” play of the night on Thursday will be Milford, Connecticut’s Doug Coby. This will be Coby’s truck series debut, but not his Bristol debut. He’s in GMS equipment and he’s offering PD. He’s an experienced modified driver and a nice GPP play. He’s one that could have a decent amount of ownership, but worth a look if trying to diversify your value plays.

Hailie Deegan ($6,600; Starting P23) I don’t have too much rhyme or reason for playing Deegan this week. I typically have avoided her the last couple weeks simply because she was starting a little too high. This week she’s starting P23 which is lower than normal and we know she can get a top 15 out of this truck. Bristol is a little unpredictable, but if she can somehow run a clean race we can get value out of her. She’s not a Cash play, but maybe worth 15-17% exposure in GPP’s because ownership could be very light.

Chase Purdy ($5,900; Starting P19) Purdy actually grabbed himself a top 20 at Bristol in the Spring but that race was run on dirt so it doesn’t really apply here. Similar to Coby, we’re getting a driver in GMS equipment for cheap. Purdy struggled earlier in the year, but he’s found his groove over his last six races. He finished in the top 17 at Texas, Nashville, Pocono, Gateway, and Darlington including top 15’s at the last four races. His one poor race since June was at Knoxville and that was a dirt race that was an absolute mess. Purdy probably starts just inside the top 20 and needs to gain a few spots, but he has been running much better with the more experience he’s gained.

Austin Wayne Self ($5,700; Starting P16) Feels like it’s the first time in a while we’ve targeted AWS and per usual, it’s only in GPP’s. It sounds like he’ll start in the top 20 and he has a pair of top 15’s here. He’s a play that you only need to hold serve and finish around where he started. Coming into Bristol he’s finished 14th, 9th, and 16th so he’s got momentum. But any given week he can go out and wreck so proceed with caution.

I don’t want to target too many punts for this race because I’m not going to build too many lineups. If I feel so inclined I may add a couple punt targets on Thursday, but I’m going conservative on Thursday since the contests are pretty unplayable.

Core Drivers