Vegas Baby, Vegas! NASCAR swings back to Sin City this weekend and the Xfinity series FINALLY kicks off their playoff schedule. For reference, here’s a look at the playoff field…

A lot of credit has to go to Jeremy Clements, who snuck into the playoffs on a bad team. Now as far as Saturday night’s race goes, I will not be in the Discord leading up to the race. This weekend I’m probably just doing three lineups for each series since I’m on vacation this week. But Vegas is set for 201 total laps broken into 45-45-110 lap segments. So that means we have about 140 dominator points to work with. As of this writing (Thursday morning) we can assume there will be a competition caution probably somewhere around lap 25. Vegas is a pretty standard run of the mill 1.5-mile intermediate track. Fortunately for us we have plenty of tracks we can draw comparisons to this season so I won’t waste too much. Here’s the driver pool this week.

Driver Pool 

Ty Gibbs ($11,000; Starting P6) I whiffed with Ty Gibbs last week, I own that one. I was surprised how incapable he was getting to the front. And truthfully, I don’t know how to treat him in a playoff race. Obviously this race means more to his teammates (Daniel Hemric, Harrison Burton, and Brandon Jones) since they’re playoff drivers. Gibbs has proven he’s better than 90% of the field at the ripe age of 18. I’m keeping exposure to just GPP’s this week since the results lately haven’t been great with zero top five finishes in his last four races. But maybe a 1.5-mile track is just what the doctor ordered and he can right the ship.

Noah Gragson ($10,700; Starting P9) Gragson is interesting this week. He’s offering a little PD and this is a track he’s never finished worse than sixth at. He hasn’t won, but he’s done well here. However, at this price tag you’d like to get some dominator points out of him and in five races here he has just two laps led. But he’s peaking right now as he’s started to get to the front of the field more. I think he’s fine for all formats this week… And keep in mind this is technically his home track. 

Austin Cindric ($10,200; Starting P1) There’s a debate over who is “Mr. Mile-And-A-Half” at the Xfinity level between Cindric and Allmendinger. This year, it’s probably been Cindric. He doesn’t have a win, but he finished fourth at Vegas (with 43 laps led), second at Charlotte, and third at Texas. Last year he absolutely crushed it on the 1.5-mile tracks and he’s likely bitter over how last week’s race at Bristol ended. Cindric doesn’t have a win since Indy Road Course, but with the playoffs now under way he’s looking to get back into victory lane.

Justin Allgaier ($10,000; Starting P3) Want to talk about consistency? In 14 races here, Allgaier has one finish outside the top 15 and that was due to an engine issue. Now at this price tag, and with him starting P3 you’ll need him to finish well with dominator points. He has 11 top ten finishes at Vegas and six top five’s. He has led laps here previously, although not in dominating fashion by any means. But he’s looked very strong on intermediate tracks this year including a win at Atlanta and he’s rolling into Vegas with five straight finishes in the top six.

A.J. Allmendinger ($9,800; Starting P2) Dinger’s coming off a dramatic win at last week’s race in Bristol and so we have to like the momentum. Additionally, he won this race back in the Spring. Dinger started tenth and led 44 laps with 32 fastest laps. Historically he’s been great on 1.5-mile tracks, but aside from Vegas this year, the results have been okay by Dinger’s standards. You still can’t discount what he can do here and that he could dominate this race Saturday night.

Daniel Hemric ($9,600; Starting P7) I don’t have much faith in him winning, but he’s trending up. He can go out and collect plenty of dominator points. However, he can’t do much past that. Crossing the finish line first seems to be his achilles heel. He’s collected respectable dominator points in the last few races and can post 50+ points on DraftKings if he runs a clean race. In the Spring race here he actually led the most laps out of anybody in the field with 74 and then had 37 fastest laps. And who could forget when he was on his way to winning Atlanta before Kyle Busch wrecked him? In his last two races here he’s finished in the top three. But we know the car is fast and it’s the best equipment he’s ever been in. He’s a viable option in GPP’s and single-entry contests.

Ty Dillon ($8,600; Starting P28) Dillon has had such a bizarre year driving part-time in Xfinity. In four races in the JGR 54-car he finished outside the top 30 including the Spring race at Vegas. In five races with Our Motorsports (good equipment, but not up to par with JGR) he finished in the top 15 in all five races, including top tens at Charlotte and Atlanta. This week, Dillon is in the 31-car for Jordan Anderson Racing, which has been occupied by numerous drivers this season including Erik Jones, Josh Berry, Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick, etc. Now Dillon will offer PD from P28 and could be chalky as a mid-range play at a reasonable price tag. He only needs to finish 14th to return 5X value. Dillon could be the chalk option in this range, but truthfully I like the next guy a little more for GPP’s.

Brett Moffitt ($8,400; Starting P27) Starting right next to Dillon for $200 less in Brett Moffitt. He offers PD and we know he can get this car inside the top 10-to-15. But it’s worth mentioning he had a sluggish start at 1.5-mile tracks this year with wrecks at Vegas-1, Atlanta-1, and then he finished 25th at Charlotte. However, at Texas and Atlanta-2 he finished in the top ten. I do wish that he was starting a little higher but I expect him to finish pretty well if he runs clean and while ownership could still be high on Moffitt, he does have a stigma and variance perfect for GPP builds.

Riley Herbst ($7,900; Starting P10) Playoff driver, starting in the top ten, under $8,000, AT HIS HOME TRACK?! Sign me up! Herbst has run here four times and has three finishes in the top 12 including a pair of top tens. In his debut with SHR in the Spring he wrecked and finished 40th. That was in that stretch of the season when everyone was laughing at SHR for signing Herbst. But he has been running better. He finished in the top five at Bristol and Richmond and while those are different tracks, I like the momentum he has coming into the playoffs with the very first race being in Vegas. If he can move up and finish seventh he’s hitting value. However, I think a top five is reasonable because this team is in the bottom four of the playoff field that likely needs a win to move on to the next round. SHR knows how to win here. Chase Briscoe drove this car to wins at both Vegas races in 2020. Herbst isn’t the driver that Briscoe is, but the teams knows how to nail the setup here. He’s a great, low-owned GPP option this week.

Ryan Sieg ($7,700; Starting P20) Sieg gets a price bump because he’s starting P20, but we know this is a top 15 car, and on a good night it’s a top ten car. As we all know Sieg is not prone to wrecks, plus he’s one to take unnecessary gambled on old tires and put himself and the field at risk on restarts. Now in both races at Vegas in 2020, Sieg finished in the top five. However, earlier this year he wrecked and finished 38th. That’s basically the risk you take with Sieg every week and why despite the PD advantage, he’s probably better suited for GPP’s.

JJ Yeley ($7,600; Starting P33) I’ll never get why Yeley is continuously priced in this range when he’s shown he can move up 10-to-15 spots each race. My concern is that Yeley hasn’t run a single 1.5-mile track this year and his career history at Vegas is just so so. If he finishes 19th, he’ll hit value. We’ve even seen him reach the top 15 so there’s a little upside, but not much. I may prefer him more for Cash games than GPP’s this week.

Bayley Currey ($6,100; Starting P36) By playing Currey, I’m probably asking to get hurt. And if you’re sick of playing Currey, feel free to keep on reading. In four races at Vegas he has three finishes in the top 25, including a 22nd-place finish in this year’s spring race. What I am liking this week is that he’ll be in the 15-car for JD Motorsports. Now he ran this ride at Richmond and didn’t do well. But he’s starting 36th and still needs to finish about 23rd or 24th for value. He’s better suited for GPP’s because we know we could be 30 laps into this race and kicking ourselves if Currey has to take the car behind the wall. But I’m convincing myself to buy into the equipment and respectable track history.

Dylan Lupton ($5,800; Starting P25) Lupton will make his 2021 Xfinity series debut this weekend. In his lone Xfinity race at Vegas he wrecked and finished 40th. So we’re not off to a great start with this section. Truthfully, it’s the equipment that I like as the 26-car for Sam Hunt Racing has had decent runs. Lupton is also familiar with Vegas. In 2019 and 2020 he grabbed a pair of top 15 finishes in the Truck Series and he has a decent resume on 1.5-mile tracks in Xfinity previously. With so many unknowns and unlikable options in this range, Lupton’s in play for a couple GPP builds.

Jade Buford ($5,600; Starting P23) Buford’s had somewhat of a weird trajectory this season. He started off a bit sluggish, then was churning out top 20 finishes and then over the last four races, he either went backward or didn’t finish in the top 20. I think he can buck that trend at Vegas on Saturday. Once he hit his stride in the summer, Buford managed finishes of 17th, 16th, and 17th at Charlotte, Texas, and Atlanta-2. This week he’s offering a little PD and while he won’t blow you out of the water, but if he moves up four spots and finishes 19th then he’s hitting value. If he sneaks closer to the top 15 then he’s hitting 6X value, but keep expectations in check and just hope for a top 20.

Alex Labbe ($5,500; Starting P17) So this is where I’m torn. I really want to go to Labbe’s teammate, Josh Williams, but he’s $6,800. DraftKings finally caught on to Williams’ track record of late and has started to juice up his price tag. And if you look at Williams’ resume on 1.5-milers this year he’s been pretty solid at this kind of track: 16th at Vegas-1, 16th at Atlanta-1, 21st at Charlotte, 17th at Texas, 18th at Atlanta-2. But for Williams he does need to move up a few spots to give your lineup some juice. I still like him but think there’s better value with Labbe who is starting right next to him for $1,300 less. Labbe has a similar resume to Williams this year at these intermediate tracks. He got off to a crap start at Vegas-1 where he finished 35th, but he bounced back later on: 17th at Atlanta-1, 14th at Charlotte, 18th at Texas, 15th at Atlanta-2. It’s a slightly similar resume and he has more of a luxury of returning value simply by holding his position and he opens up salary up to for you to pay for more PD or a dominator.

Ryan Vargas ($5,300; Starting P31) I prefer Vargas more in Cash this week than GPP’s. I think a lot of people will turn to Vargas as a cheap source of PD and his resume on intermediate tracks this year has been solid. Vargas is arguably in a top 25 car and he’s starting outside the top 30. He finished 23rd at Vegas earlier this year after starting P35. He also finished 16th at Charlotte and 14th at Atlanta-2. So in Cash games I’m more comfortable taking Vargas. But in GPP’s I may try to go with Labbe who will have less ownership since he’ll have less PD to offer. And Vargas is just staring at us as such a safe and obvious play this week that it wouldn’t surprise me if he somehow wrecked because that’s just how NASCAR DFS goes.

Core Drivers

Top TierMid-TierValue Tier
A.J. AllmendingerTy DillonAlex Labbe (GPP’s)
Daniel Hemric (GPP’s)Brett MoffittRyan Vargas (Cash)

The Top Tier “Core Drivers” are hard to identify because it all comes down to nailing the right dominators and it could arguably boil down to anyone priced over $9,000. So I really like Hemric in GPP’s and single-entry contests and simply went with Dinger based on the Spring race.