Top Tier
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – It’s hard for me to pay up for the Rams this week on DraftKings. They’re $5,000 which is too steep for a D/ST despite the matchup against Detroit. For that reason, I’ll look at the Bucs who are $1,000 cheaper and have just as good of a matchup against the Bears. From Weeks 1-3 the Bucs allowed on average 29.3 points per game and 402 total yards per game, with just three sacks and four turnovers. Over their last three games they’ve allowed 18.6 points per game and 269.3 total yards per game with nine sacks and five turnovers. Sure, there’s a huge gap in quality of opponents between the two samples, but they’re playing the Bears this week and despite Tampa’s issues in the secondary this is a matchup worth targeting if you’re looking to save salary and not play the Rams. The over/under is around 47 points (bet down from 49) and the Bucs are currently favored by 12.5 points.
New England Patriots – The Patriots were a fade last week and they returned just three points, but they’re back in our good graces this week. On DraftKings, the Patriots have returned more than five points just once this season and it came against the Jets back in Week 2. New England’s defense hasn’t looked at its best in their last three games as they’ve allowed 436 total yards per game in that span. But this is still the Jets and Zach Wilson has nine interceptions and two fumbles (zero lost) in just five games. The only concern I have is that the Jets are coming off their bye week, but the Patriots will be hosting this matchup. The Jets average the fewest points per game (13.4) and the second-fewest total yards per game (267).
Mid-Tier
Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are the most expensive D/ST on FanDuel but they’re only $3,100 on DraftKings. I don’t know what they were thinking when they set this price tag, but this is the obvious D/ST to target in Cash games this week on DK. The betting line opened at ARI (-14.5) and the Cardinals are now favored by 17.5 points and the over/under has been bet down from 49.5 to 47.5 which means the Texans have a scoring expectancy around 14-15 points. The Cardinals have allowed a total of 24 points and 628 total yards of offense over the last two weeks to better offenses than the Texans. Moreover, the Cardinals can put plenty of pressure on the quarterback and force turnovers. Arizona is eligible in all formats this weekend.
Baltimore Ravens – We looked at the Ravens last week as an absolute punt in GPP’s and we should still like them once again in Week 7. They’ve allowed a total of 55 points in their last four games while allowing just 315 total yards of offense in that span. Now this isn’t the same dominant Ravens defense we’ve seen in recent years, but they’ve bounced back after a sluggish start in their first two games. They host the Bengals this week and while the Bengals have weapons on offense, they still rank in the bottom half of the league in pass protection according to Pro Football Focus. Could this game get out of hand with scoring on both sides? Sure, and that’s why the Ravens are just a GPP play this week.
Value Tier
New York Jets – We say it all the time, but this is a position of high variance and any team can return value in this range. If you love the rest of your build and are forced to come down to the Jets, then I don’t hate that in any contest format. Sure, the Jets are underdogs by a touchdown but the over/under is fairly low at 42.5 points. Mac Jones is being sacked 2.2 times per game and the Patriots average about two turnovers per game as well. And overall, the Jets have been somewhat consistent in terms of their DFS production. They’ve returned at least three points in each of their first five games and again, they’re coming off their bye week. If you’re paying down this is probably the group I’d target.
Washington Football Team – I don’t want to come down this far on DraftKings, and I wouldn’t play Washington on FanDuel. I prefer going with the Jets in either format if you need to punt the position. But WFT hit the variance lottery last week. They managed to force four turnovers and three sacks against Kansas City and they actually hit 4X value on DraftKings despite surrendering 31 points and almost 500 yards of total offense. Here is where I’m a little concerned; this team has been pretty awful on away from Landover, Maryland:
- Home: Four games, 11 sacks, seven turnovers, 28.3 PPG allowed
- Away: Two games, one sack, zero turnovers, 36.5 PPG allowed
Now the sample sizes are small, but this isn’t a great matchup traveling to Green Bay. But I’m a little hesitant to fully commit to them as a punt. If you can’t afford the Jets on DraftKings, I prefer Washington over the likes of the Texans, Lions, and Titans.
Fade
Miami Dolphins – On a slate with only 20 D/ST’s it was actually somewhat difficult to find a true fade on this slate. While I don’t like paying $5,000 for a D/ST I won’t talk anyone off the Rams, who are in a great spot. And I could’ve easily gone with the Titans, Lions, or Texans but that’s not really me doing my job well. But if there’s one team that jumps off the page as a fade, it’s Miami. They’re coming off an embarrassing loss to Jacksonville in London and they’re facing the Falcons, who are coming off their Bye week. The Falcons were actually looking much better prior to their Bye week and they got a breakout game from Kyle Pitts. It also sounds like Calvin Ridley will be re-joining the team so I just don’t think this is a great spot to pay a mid-tier price tag on the Fins. It makes too much more sense to look at Arizona or Baltimore in this range.