Top Tier

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I like both the floor and the ceiling for the Buccaneers this weekend. For starters, they’re playing much better despite the injuries they’ve had to deal with. They haven’t played the greatest offenses over their last four games but regardless in that span they’ve allowed just 279.75 yards per game and 14.75 points per game. They’ve also been getting pressure on the opposing team’s quarterback with 13 sacks and ten turnovers over this stretch as well. This is a revenge game for Jameis Winston and it’s a road trip for the Bucs as well, but either way, this defense knows the tendencies of Winston. I prefer them more in GPP’s this week because you can pay down for better value in Cash games. Ultimately you’re getting a great team in a good matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals – They’re playing the Jets. I wish I could end the analysis there, but I suppose I’ll throw more facts your way. The Jets will be starting either Mike White or Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback. Does either player instill fear in you? Didn’t think so. The Bengals defense is pretty respectable as well. They’ve allowed 339 yards per game (10th-fewest) and just 18.3 points per game (fifth-fewest). The over/under is around 42.5 points and the Queen City Kitties are ten-point favorites. They’re probably a better lineup for Cash games. I’d prefer to pay down in GPP’s.

Mid-Tier

Buffalo Bills – The Bills are the fourth-most expensive team on FanDuel, but the seventh-most expensive on DraftKings. The $3,300 price tag on DK seems like a solid mid-tier price to target this week. This is a home game for the Bills and it’s a divisional matchup against the Miami Dolphins. The over/under is high at 49.5 points but the Bills are favored by almost two touchdowns and I’m still not completely sold on Tua Tagovailoa. He’s looked good in his return from injury but his last two performances came against the Falcons and Jaguars and with the Dolphins sitting at 1-6 the organization is still in the mix on the Deshaun Watson trade rumors. So even the Dolphins aren’t fully bought in on Tua. The Bills are surrendering the fewest yards per game (270.2) and the second-fewest points per game (16.3) through seven weeks. Keep in mind, the Bills were the exact same price on DraftKings in Week 2 in Miami and they posted 22 points. I’m not saying we’ll get the same performance from them, but they did collect six sacks and force three turnovers in that contest.

Seattle Seahawks – Not since the Legion of Boom have I felt this good about Seattle. They’re only favored by a field goal but this could be a disgustingly low scoring affair as the Jags have a long trip across the country this week. Not to mention, this stadium will be loud. This is the epitome of a play where you’re happy with just seven-to-eight DFS points. However, we know Trevor Lawrence has a tendency to turn the ball over with 11 giveaways in his first six games. It’ll be his first true test on the road out West, so give some consideration to Seattle in GPP’s as a low-owned play with a nice ceiling if they make Lawrence uncomfortable.

Value Tier 

Philadelphia Eagles – I’d consider the Eagles more of a GPP play this week although you may hear differently from other people. What has me worried is that the Lions aren’t as bad as their winless record. They’ve lost two games to heartbreaking field goals and they were somewhat competitive against the Rams last week. The Eagles run defense is awful and D’Andre Swift is arguably matchup proof. But Philadelphia can get pressure on Jared Goff and maybe this is a week the Birds can get some sacks. The over/under is pretty high and the Eagles are only favored by a field goal. If you’re playing them it’s a solid leverage play in GPP’s, but you really need Detroit to put up a dud.

Washington Football Team – Given that this is a position of high variance, the Football Team is once again in play at the minimum price. And we should actually start feeling better about their performance. I’m actually buying into the Football Team starting to turn their defense around. Over their last three games against the Saints, Chiefs, and Packers the Football Team has forced six turnovers and recorded eight sacks. Over that span they’ve been priced under $2,500 every week on DraftKings and they’ve retuned seven, eight, and five points. It’s not great but there’s value there. The over/under is relatively low at 43 points and the Broncos are only favored by three points. Are there concerns about playing in Denver? Sure, but the Broncos aren’t world beaters on offense. They’re averaging under 350 yards per game and only 20 points per game as well. Denver’s offensive line can likely surrender three sacks here and Washington can force some turnovers. This is the team to punt to this week if you’re spending money elsewhere.

Fade

Los Angeles Rams – I don’t like to fade good defenses, but I can confidently say I’m not playing the Rams this week. The pricing has become a little absurd. They’re more expensive than Mike Gesicki, Noah Fant, and Rob Gronkowski. Those are all tight ends I’m considering this week in my builds. I will say I’m definitely fading the Rams if TyRod Taylor suits up to play. The Texans offense looked pretty good with Taylor under center and as of right now he’s questionable. If he’s not a go, then there’s more of an understanding to play the Rams since the Texans have scored about five touchdowns in as many games with Davis Mills. In six quarters of football, the Texans scored about six times with Taylor running the offense. But it all comes down to the price tag. You save $1,500 by going to the Bengals who play the Jets, you save $1,800 by going with the Bills who host the Dolphins, and you save $3,000 if you’re punting to Washington. It’s getting a little out of hand how expensive the Rams are and you really need them to explode and not allow garbage time production for them to really be productive for your lineups.