NASCAR DFS Playbook: Xfinity 500

It’s been a rough weekend for NASCAR. Fortunately, I only played the Happy Hour contests for both the Truck and Xfinity Series and going light was probably my best read. We saw an abundance of cautions on Saturday. The Xfinity race had 13 cautions for 75 laps, while the Truck series saw 14 for 89 laps. We can probably expect double-digit cautions in the Cup series race, but most would probably come later on as drivers make their move to win and advance if they’re eligible.

Tech will occur later this morning and we’ll have updates in the NASCAR DFS Discord channel with any updates. As far as the race goes, it’s the final race before the Championship in Phoenix next week so drivers that need a win to advance will certainly look to do so. We have a whopping 500 laps on the docket Sunday. They’ll be broken into 125-125-250 lap segments with a competition caution following lap 60. Here’s a look at the playoff picture…

The Remaining Playoff Drivers

Kyle Larson ($11,800; Starting P1) – Historically, this isn’t Larson’s best track. In 13 races here he has an average starting spot of 13.2 and an average finish of 21.08 but keep in mind most of those races were in CGR equipment. In his first run in the 5-car in the Spring he started 19th and finished 5th and while he didn’t lead any laps, he logged 21 fastest laps to go with his PD. I’m mostly curious as to where his ownership lands. He’s won the last three races coming into Martinsville. He’s already locked up his spot in the championship race next week in Phoenix. I think casual players lock and load him since he’s on the pole and has won the last three races. I think more savy players and touts could be light on him this week because the race means nothing to him and I’m sure he could easily help Elliott get the win so Hendrick Motorsports can get two cars into the next round. It’ll be wise to get some exposure for the potential dominator points he could collect either way.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,400; Starting P4) – It has certainly been an interesting season for MTJ. He’s won three of the last four races at Martinsville including 745 laps led over that four-race span. I like the fact that he performs well on short tracks and road courses. Certainly, Martinsville and road courses are completely different but the flat, tight turns can draw some comparisons and once again, JGR runs best in this package. It sounds like he’ll line up in the second row next to teammate Denny Hamlin. Once again, dominator points will be available, but I feel like he’ll be very popular in two-dominator builds.

Denny Hamlin ($10,700; Starting P3) – Hamlin might be my favorite play this week and I’m trying to gauge where ownership will fall. He was a leverage play for me in the Spring race where I hit big and finished second in the $24 single-entry on DraftKings. He led over 200 laps and was consistently up front all day. He’s won at Martinsville five times, but the last one came back in 2015. You  don’t even need him to win this weekend. Just knowing he could go out and collect a bunch of dominator points is enough for me. This is the package JGR has run best in this year and since the playoffs started, Hamlin has two wins and hasn’t finished worse than 11th while leading over 130 laps in three races. What do you think he can do with 500 laps at his disposal? - UPDATE: Hamlin failed pre-race tech twice and will now drop to the rear but will be scored from P3. If he fails a third time he'll have a pass through penalty.

Kyle Busch ($10,400; Starting P7) – We’ll be hitting on JGR cars all week and Busch is certainly in play. Shocking, right? JGR runs well in this package and Busch has a couple wins here. He’s also led over 100 laps here on seven different occasions so take that for what it’s worth. Busch is flirting with the playoff line so he is in a bit of a pinch and needs to finish well. I don’t think he wins on Sunday, but he should finish up front and could collect dominator points.

Chase Elliott ($10,400; Starting P2) – Elliott won this race a year ago in impressive fashion while leading 236 laps. It’s his lone win here but he does have a pair of runner-up finishes as well including this past Spring. I don’t think he gets to the lead early on, but I could be wrong. In an ideal world, MTJ would nudge him to the lead and maybe Larson lays back a bit and just does laps all day and stays out of the way. Elliott, like any of the eight championship drivers should be on your radar especially with having the advantage of starting on the front row.

Ryan Blaney ($9,700; Starting P8) – Blaney has led 227 laps over his last three Martinsville races and he currently sits just one point out of the playoff picture. He had a fantastic run here in the Spring before finishing just outside the top ten. It looks like he’ll start around P8 so he offers some PD as well as a dominator upside. He’s great for GPP’s this week.

Joey Logano ($9,500; Starting P5) – It’s been a weird season for Logano. He only has one win this year and it came on Bristol Dirt. But he had solid runs including an impressive performance at Phoenix where he led over 100 laps and finished second. He won this race three years ago and led over 300 laps. He also has two other performances leading over 200 laps as well. He’s in dead last of the remaining playoff drivers and likely needs a win to move on to Phoenix so I expect him to be aggressive and do what it takes to qualify.

Brad Keselowski ($9,300; Starting P6) – Kes is currently outside the final four picture, but only by six points so anything can still happen for him. Historically he’s run very well at Martinsville including a dominating win in the Spring of 2019 with over 440 laps led. He’s led over 100 laps here on four different occasions and if you take away this year’s race in the Spring where he wrecked, he had ten straight top ten’s here including nine top five’s and two wins. He has five consecutive top five finishes in the playoff race here.

Remaining Driver Pool

Christopher Bell ($8,400; Starting P12) – One key to Martinsville is making sure you have guys that can stay on the lead lap long enough to ensure a good position after 500 laps. Bell got off to a very strong start this season and then cooled off. But he’s been running much better of late with four straight finishes in the top eight, but those tracks were nothing like Martinsville. But that’s not a concern for me. We’ve touched on the importance of equipment and Bell is in the 20-car for JGR that runs well in this package. Bell grabbed a top 15 a year ago in this race and he finished seventh here in the Spring. The starting spot could keep ownership off him, but I think he can finish in the top ten.

Tyler Reddick ($8,200; Starting P18) – Tyler Reddick makes for an interesting play this week. The price is pretty friendly and makes it easy for him to hit value if he finishes in the top ten. He did finish eighth here in the Spring, but it’s worth mentioning he had an average running position of 15th. He did finish 24th a year ago and 16th in the Summer of 2020. This is a PD-friendly play that has shown really solid speed the last few races, but don’t go too heavy in case he runs just inside the top 15 because we certainly need a top ten finish to hit value.

Aric Almirola ($8,000; Starting P23) – It certainly seems a little odd that Almirola is the only SHR driver to score a win this season, but that has been the case unfortunately. But we love to target Almirola in races where we get the 750HP package as well as short, flat tracks. Most people are going to target him next week for Phoenix since he’s historically run well there, but I will gamble a week early for Martinsville as well. He’s not a “sure thing” as Martinsville can be unforgiving if you fall a couple laps down and can’t move up from there. But in this package and at this style of track we need to have him on our radar.

Kurt Busch ($7,900; Starting P10) – Martinsville isn’t a great track for the elder Busch brother by any means, but he does have two wins here although one of them came two decades ago. However, since joining Chip Ganassi Racing he’s never gone backward here (which could change this week) and he has four finishes in the top 12 including three in the top ten. He’ll most likely be a GPP play this week as he’s starting pretty high but with the suppressed his price tag, I like the potential here. He grabbed a top five here in last year’s playoff race.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700; starting P21) – Anytime we play Matty D he’s always a risk. Truthfully it seems like any time I play him, I do so on the wrong weeks. But he’s run well here as long as he’s been in good equipment. Since 2019 with Leavine Family Racing and Wood Brothers Racing, he has five straight top 20 finishes here including three straight top 12 finishes with WBR. He’ll likely be starting outside the top 20 which gives him PD. This race also means a lot to this team as Wood Brothers Racing is not far from Martinsville and this is Matty D’s second-to-last race in the 21-car so he wants to give them a solid performance.

Bubba Wallace ($7,600; Starting P17) – The best part about Wallace this week is that ownership will be fairly low, which is great because he’s actually run pretty well at Martinsville. Over his last five races at the Paperclip he has an average starting spot of 26.4 and an average finishing position of 15.6 and he even led some laps here in the Spring. The starting spot will lower ownership, but that makes him a great leverage play in GPP’s. He’s basically in JGR equipment and we know those cars run great in this package and at this track.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,200; Starting P25) – Stenhouse has surprisingly been very good at Martinsville. He finished 15th here in the Spring, but he also started 6th so he technically went backwards. But still, he scored a pair of top tens here in 2017, and over his last four races he’s finished 21st or better. A 16th-place finish will hit value but if there’s chaos and he can run clean then we’ll get some great value here.

Ryan Newman ($7,100; Starting P27) – Newman is about as far back as I want to go in order to target PD. For what it’s worth, I don’t love how he’s looked lately. With news that he’ll be replaced by Brad Keselowski next year, he seems to have mailed this season in. The results lately have been crap, but if there’s a track he can excel at, it would be Martinsville. He has four straight top 20 finishes at Martinsville and this is a track where you need to be a bit of a bully in order to either gain or hold your spot. Newman fits that mold of a guy that isn’t afraid to rub against another driver to get track position. Again, it depends which Newman we get this week but he provides PD from his starting spot and has top 15-20 upside. It is interesting to note, that under the “show up and race” circumstances NASCAR adapted over the past 18 months, Newman has an average running position inside the top 15 for each Martinsville race. So while the results haven’t consistently been there, he has run well here in the past three races.

Cole Custer ($6,600; Starting P24) – Matt and I discussed on the podcast whether we want to target Chase Briscoe or Custer in this range. Matt made a solid argument for Custer and while Briscoe is excluded from the Playbook, we don’t need to exclude him from our lineups necessarily. I’ve written up about half the field, so some people can’t make the cut. He finished 13th a year ago in this race after starting 15th and earlier this year he finished 18th after starting 26th.

Daniel Suarez ($6,500; Starting P20) – At a track like Martinsville, it’s important to really spread your exposure around. I’ve written up a ton of drivers but I think it’s necessary simply because anything could happen here. Both the Truck and Xfinity races saw at least 13 cautions. A lot of folks will look at Suarez’s run in the Spring and write him off. But he was supposed to start P11, had to drop back to the rear for an added ballast. Then in the first 80 or so laps he worked his way up from outside the top 30 to inside the top 20 before he fell two laps down due to a green flag pit stop with about 50 laps to go in the first stage. Then he’d later on get caught up in a wreck. But the setup for the car was there and I’m optimistic this Trackhouse team can show up today and run well. In good equipment, he has a couple top tens here. The 99-car isn’t what he raced with JGR or SHR, but this team has shown they can surprise some people.  

Corey Lajoie ($6,000; Starting P29) – I don’t really want to dip further than Lajoie in terms of pricing. Despite being caught up in a wreck in the Spring, he’s looked good here over the last couple seasons. He scored a couple top 20’s in arguably worse equipment and given that the team has invested in better gear of late, there’s a chance he could contend for a top 15. I’m hesitant to use him in Cash games, but he’s starting far enough back where I think he can work in that format.

The Backmarkers – None of these guys will finish on the lead lap. Truthfully, they probably finish five or six laps down. Look at this year’s Spring race. James Davison started P37 and finished 22nd. He finished six laps down, but with +15 PD spots. Josh Bilicki started P33 and finished 23rd, seven laps down. Anthony Alfredo finished 26th eight laps down. What helps these drivers out so much is when the field wrecks in front of them. At Martinsville it doesn’t take much to end a car’s day. Even the slightest damage renders the car a two-ton paperweight. And that’s how these drivers move up. Personally, I won’t be punting down here too much, but you can take some chances on these guys and hope they run a clean race and avoid the carnage. Over the last three Martinsville races we’ve seen 15 cautions (for 102 laps), ten cautions (83 laps), and seven cautions (52 laps). It’s not the sexiest way to find value, but there could be value with one or two drivers in this range if they move up by the higher-priced chalk wrecking out.

Core Drivers