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PrizePicks Prop Selection
Travis Kelce Over 0.5 Touchdowns – The Giants have contained tight ends pretty well over the past couple games but have still given up four touchdowns to opposing tight ends over the course of the season. If there’s a player that could be due for a touchdown, it’s Kelce. He’s scored only once in his last five games and the Chiefs are still pissed off about last week’s embarrassing loss. He’s arguably Patrick Mahomes’ best weapon inside the red zone and it’s a matchup where he could, and should, find the end zone to break out of his rut.
Daniel Jones Over 20.5 Rushing Yards – If the Giants are going to be competitive, I do anticipate Jones being active with his legs. He’s rushed for at least 25 yards in five of seven games this year and one of the games he didn’t hit that mark he was injured and left the game. The Giants offensive line is pretty beat up and Jones could be running for his life and possibly scamper into the end zone for a score as well. But for the purposes of this Playbook, 21+ rushing yards are within reason.
Daniel Jones Over 21.5 Pass Completions – I was initially hesitant about this prop but there are two things that swayed me to taking the over here. For starters, Jones has completed at least 22 completions in six of his seven starts this season. The lone game he was unable to hit that mark was against the Cowboys where he got hurt, as mentioned above. So when he’s played a full game this season he’s hitting this mark. Additionally, if the Giants are trailing they’ll look to throw the ball more late in the game. The extra passing volume alone should get him to this mark. In my NFL DFS Showdown Playbook I did mention I think it’s possible he throws it 35-40 times tonight. He’s completed 63.5% of his pass attempts this season and if he has similar success tonight and throws 35 pass attempts, then he’ll eclipse the 21.5 mark set by PrizePicks.
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Touchdowns – Mahomes has just four touchdown passes in his last three games, including zero last week. The Chiefs offense hasn’t looked right the last couple weeks, but this is still a team with one of the best quarterbacks in the league with phenomenal weapons. I’m guessing he’s going to play with the mindset of shutting up the naysayers (including myself) and put up at least three passing touchdowns. He kicked the season off with four straight games with three or more touchdowns. The Chiefs also have a 31-point implied total according to Vegas and if the sportsbooks are implying the Chiefs are capable of at least four touchdowns, you have to assume Mahomes accounts for most of them.
If You Want To Spice Things Up
By no means do you need to get exposure to these props, but if you aren’t sold on any of the props provided above, you could look at these as well to possibly increase your payout, but use your best judgment.
Mecole Hardman Under 3.5 Receptions – On paper, this seems like a stupid prop suggestion on my part. Hardman has 17 receptions the last three weeks, including three straight games with at least four receptions. So why would I be looking at the under on a night when I think Mahomes go off? Unfortunately, Hardman has lost a fumble in back-to-back games. If it happened once, so be it. But it’s happened twice now in two games and the coaching staff may look to limit him tonight. The Chiefs already have Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce hogging most of the targets and they have other weapons on the bench like Byron Pringle, Demarcus Robinson, and even Josh Gordon. I may be reading into it a little too much, but this prop feels like a trap for the over, so I’m going to lean towards the under.
Tyreek Hill Over 1.5 Rushing Yards – This one isn’t a slam dunk either, but when the Chiefs do give Tyreek Hill a rushing attempt, he goes over two yards with it. The downside is that he may only see one rushing attempt the whole game, so he has to make it count for us. He’s rushed for more than two yards in five of seven games this season. The two games he didn’t hit that mark were games where he didn’t receive a carry. That’s the risk we take here because it’s not a guarantee he gets one. But if he is given the ball on a sneaky end-around or a reverse then he can take it for a handful of yards.