NASCAR DFS Playbook: Lucas Oil 150

Well we’ve made it to the conclusion of another year of NASCAR DFS. It’s always bittersweet but I’m not one bit upset about getting a couple months off. But we still have an exciting weekend as the Truck, Xfinity, and Cup series will be crowning champions in the desert. Here is how the schedule breaks down for The Truck Series on Friday:

• 11:05am ET – Practice
• 5:05pm ET – Qualifying
• 8:00pm ET – Lucas Oil 150 Championship Race

Tech inspections will run at some point on Friday, I just don’t know when as of right now. So as it stands right now we only have the prices on DraftKings, we do not yet have the starting order and won’t know that officially until roughly 6:00pm ET, just two hours before the race. So get your reservations set ahead of time so when we do know the order we can just start cranking out lineups. The contests aren’t great, but with qualifying it is a good week to play Cash games. The only GPP’s I’m entering for Truck and XFIN will be the Happy Hour contests since the payouts and structure of the other contests aren’t great.

Friday night’s race is scheduled for 150 laps around Phoenix’s unique one-mile track. This is a very flat track, but not necessarily a short track by any means. Since we have practice and qualifying this weekend, there will be no competition caution so while that doesn’t kill guys starting in the back, the mid-stage restart does hurt their ability to move up early on. Again, it’s far from a deal breaker though. Stage segments will be broken up 45-45-60.

Practice Results

The Championship Four

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,800) It wasn’t pretty, but John Hunter Nemechek snuck into the playoffs believe it or not. He was wrecked out of Martinsville after contact with Austin Wayne Self and had to sweat out the remaining laps, but he got in as the fourth driver. He’s been the best driver in the field all year, but he has had his struggles in the playoffs. He hasn’t won since Pocono and that was at the end of June. But he does have four finishes in the top four in his last eight races. Now his last two races in 2018 and 2019 at Phoenix ended poorly. He was caught up in a wreck and had suspension issues in separate races. He also ran in worse equipment at that time, but he’s been the best driver in the field and has a few top five finishes here as well. It’s awfully hard to fade him right now despite the misfortunes of late. Be sure to fit him into some of your builds. It does help JHN’s chances (and the other three for that matter) that Sheldon Creed didn’t qualify for the championship so the odds of JHN winning are much more likely. The championship is his to lose.

Zane Smith ($10,400) It’s a blessing Zane Smith won last week’s race to qualify for Phoenix because he doesn’t have a job for next year, but he also had a fantastic run at this track a year ago. He started and finished second but led 48 laps as well. He doesn’t need to win the race to be champion, but he does need to find a way to finish ahead of JHN if he wants to be champion.

Ben Rhodes ($10,200) Rhodes has been a bit of a wallflower for most of the year. Following his back-to-back wins at Daytona to start the season, he hasn’t done much since then. He has just five top five finishes in his last 19 races, but he does have some top tens in there as well. But his lack of recent success plays a role in why this group of four is a little underwhelming. He does have a pair of top five’s at Phoenix and he led 47 laps at this race two years ago. We can’t simply sleep on him because of the lack of wins lately. Get a little exposure but at this price tag he will need to lead laps to be optimal unless he starts very far back.

Matt Crafton ($10,000) Speaking of a lack of wins, Crafton has zero wins on the season and just one win in the last four years. He’s only led 20 laps all season. He can run well, but do we have much faith in him winning? The good news is that he’s raced here 20 times. However, in those 20 races he has only 16 laps led and just six top five finishes. That’s a 30% top five rate here. Obviously we expect better from him in a championship race, but now you hopefully see what I mean when I say the championship is JHN’s to lose…

Remaining Driver Pool

Sheldon Creed ($10,600) It absolutely sucks he didn’t qualify for the championship to rightfully defend his title, but he’s on to bigger and better things next year as he moves up to the Xfinity series. With that said, he wants to go out in style and it wouldn’t surprise me if he won tonight’s race. Creed’s led 43 laps combined across the last two races at Phoenix including last year’s win. If you’re not looking to stack two championship drivers, then Creed/JHN stacks will be very popular and he would love to win his last race as a full-time Truck series driver.

Todd Gilliland ($9,800) Gilliland has a pair of top tens at Phoenix, and that’s about all we can say about him. But I do like the fact that he’s coming off a very impressive run at Martinsville which is a flat track, despite a drastic difference in length to Phoenix. Plus, he has momentum heading into this race as he’s led 268 laps over the last three races. We’d love to see him offer some PD based on qualifying, but if he starts in the top 12, ownership could be light if the field assumes he doesn’t finish well, but ownership on Gilliland is never outrageously high anyway.

Chandler Smith ($9,600) Smith may not be running for the championship, but he’s looked very strong here in two races. I’d like him to come with a little bit of PD but not a ton because the farther back he starts, the more chalky he’ll be. Ideally I want him starting right inside the top ten. But Smith has back-to-back third place finishes here so no matter where he starts he’s a threat for a top five.

Stewart Friesen ($9,500) This is an awfully tough price tag for Friesen but he does have a win here and historically he finishes very well at Phoenix. In his last four races here he’s finished sixth, first, fifth, and sixth. He was running great prior to the last two races so hopefully he can find that mojo again and finish the season off strong. His starting spot will determine how much exposure we want.

Johnny Sauter ($9,300) I’ll keep this one brief, but Sauter’s run a dozen races here and he has nine top ten finishes including a win here as well. Practice and qualifying should help Sauter today so he can truly dial up the truck to his happiness/specifications. Keep an eye on him during practice because if he’s showing speed then it’ll be a good spot to get exposure.

Tyler Ankrum ($8,700) Here’s a price tag I actually like believe it or not. Ankrum typically doesn’t start all that high. Coincidentally enough, he doesn’t finish all that high either. So with that said if he’s starting outside the top 15 we’re getting him at a bargain. He’s normally about $500-$1,000 more when he starts in that range and moreover, he actually has a decent track history here in a small sample size. He does have a pair of top tens in the desert in three races. I don’t think ownership will be extremely high unless he’s starting outside the top 20 so this is a guy I like for Cash and GPP contests.

Ty Dillon ($8,100) The price tag is too sweet for Dillon for Friday night’s race and the starting spot will dictate just how chalky he is. In ten Cup series races at Phoenix, Dillon has an average starting spot of 25.0 and an average finishing position of 18.9 so in terms of experience he certainly has it. He’ll step into the 32-truck for Bret Holmes Racing which isn’t great equipment by any means. But at this price tag, he’ll be worth it assuming he can get a top ten with some PD on his side.

Drew Dollar ($7,700) I normally don’t have much interest in Drew Dollar because he has a tendency to wreck this truck. Dollar has literally wrecked in three of his last six races. I’m surprised Kyle Busch keeps lending him this ride if I’m being honest. But without practice and qualifying, this truck is routinely starting in the top 20 and he’s finishing outside the top 20. But if he qualifies poorly, we know this equipment is good enough to win… Dollar isn’t. If Dollar can offer some PD just hope that he stays clean and somehow gets a top 15. It really does depend where he qualifies though.

The Brothers Gray (Tanner: $7,500; Taylor: $7,300) Why not just group these guys together, hmm? Tanner and Taylor separately have decent resumes here. The elder brother, Tanner, has two races under his belt here and he’s finished 15th and 17th. 16-year-old Taylor (yes he’s truly that young) has run four Truck series races in 2021 and he’s grabbed two top 12 finishes (Gateway and Martinsville), but he finished outside the top 25 at Watkins Glen and Bristol. It is good to see that he’s run well on the shorter, more flat tracks. In the ARCA series he has a pair of top ten finishes here as well. Keep an eye on where they start but they could be a pair of solid value plays.

Chase Purdy ($6,600) This is a pretty nice value play with Purdy if he’s offering PD. I’ll never understand why Jack Wood is more expensive than him when Purdy’s clearly been the better driver of late. Either way, we’ll take this value on a GMS ride. Purdy’s lone truck race at Phoenix was three years ago but he did finish 13th. Purdy had some mechanical issues last week at Martinsville, but he did turn a corner halfway through the season and he started to pull off some top 20 runs. I like him as a bit of a contrarian value play because I think most DFS players have a difficult time trusting him.

Tyler Hill ($5,300) I love getting some exposure to Tyler Hill. The is a family-owned ride but it’s had some solid finishes this year. Hell, Hill was the runner-up at Talladega about a month ago. He has some experience at Phoenix from the Xfinity series and the Truck series as well. The results weren’t great but if he qualifies poorly, then we’re presented with a nice value play.

Dean Thompson ($5,000) Thompson and Lawless Alan ($6,500) will be driving the Niece Motorsports rides this week. It’s always risky playing Alan. He’s really only in play if he starts outside the top 30. But Thompson is worth getting exposure to because the equipment is too good to pass up at this price tag. He has raced at Phoenix in the ARCA series so he has some experience to work with as well.

Core Drivers

Join me in the NASCAR DFS Discord for any questions leading up to lineup lock!

Qualifying Order