Welcome to the DFS Playbook for NFL Week 13!
This is fixin' to be quite the week in NFL DFS. If you've gone through the coaches an the Watch List, then you already know what we're looking at this week. Something pretty tasty, but also, likely one of the biggest Choose Your Own Adventure stories with regard to lineup construction. Both the quarterback and wide receiver position have their usual array of players at varying pricing tiers. We like a couple at the top and we have a few who can save us some salary. The tight end position is roughly the same. But this week, the running back position is going to present us with a lot of options…and a lot of problems.
Lineup construction is crucial to your success. For the most part, you want to float with the herd in cash games on some plays, but to win a GPP, you need to find those low-owned options. But with the way the running back position is laid out this week, it's going to be extremely difficult to differentiate between the two. Just a quick glance at the DFS Draft Percentage Forecaster, you'll see 10 guys across varying pricing tiers with a projection of 10-percent or greater. That's a lot. Usually you see three or four each week. But this week, everyone from the highest-priced back Jonathan Taylor to the super bargain-priced Antonio Gibson have stellar match-ups and are worth using in both your cash games and GPP tournaments.
Usually we say you can either pay up or pay down and sometimes we'll say you can do one of each. This week, you can do it all and that is going to make a big difference when building your lineups. Keep an eye on the DFS Draft Percentage Forecaster. There will be an update tonight, another early tomorrow morning and then one more about an hour before lineup lock. Use is as a guideline, not the gospel. Even if you're like me and you're just a one or two lineup player, build several just to see what looks the most promising. It's going to take you some extra time, so be sure to give yourself enough….not too much that you're overthinking it, but enough to build multiple and see which looks best for you.
Before we get to the Playbook players, allow me to remind you what you should be doing leading up this step in your research.
Step 1: Check out the DFS Position Coaches
QB Coach – Jon Impemba (@jimpemba777)
RB Coach -- Justin Vreeland (@JustinVreeland)
WR Coach -- Colby Conway (@colbyrconway)
TE Coach -- Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco)
D/ST Coach -- Dan Malin (@RealDANlanta)
Step 2: Check out the rest of the relevant DFS content
In addition to the positional coaching pieces, you also have things like the DFS Watch List, where I provide you with a list of players I am looking at throughout the week. We have the NFL DFS Podcast with me and Jon Impemba, who also does the Contrarian Corner video and check out the DFS Bargains from our newest #FAmily member Tera Roberts (@ItsTeraTime).
Also, our Master of Tools, Matt Selz (@theselzman), supplies you data junkies with the Weekly Match-Up Report and everyone should also be checking out the WR/CB Match-Up Report from Ryan Hallam (@fightingchance).
Step 3: Make your own list of players
It's real easy to just sit and wait for the Playbook, but as you are doing your research throughout the week, it is important to make notes and list the players who interest you the most. Maybe they end up in the Playbook and maybe they don't. If they're there, then great, it should mean we are honing in on the same things that make him a strong play. If not, maybe you're onto something else that someone overlooked. We aren't perfect and if you uncover something different, maybe you're right. I would be careful of routine groupthink and hype from beat writers, but often times someone will tell me something they saw about their local team that I missed and I am always looking to investigate more if its there. If you do, then say something in our Fantasy Alarm Discord Chat,. Talk it out and see what the rest of the #FAmily thinks. That's why the chat is there, isn't it?
With those three steps complete and discussions are in progress, you are ready to look at the Playbook players, make comparisons and finalize your list for lineups, so let's get to it.
How about one final step before we actually begin?
CHECK FOR LATE CHANGES TO THE PLAYBOOK
Every now and again, we throw in a late add to the Playbook. More often than not, a late add is done for cash game play as we are seeing higher-than-expected ownership on a bargain player. These can, often times, become a “free square." If the ownership is high, it won't matter if the players succeeds or not. It's about keeping pace with the masses and watching out for lineup trains. We won't recommend if we don't believe in the player, so if you see one, understand the major reasoning behind it.
Stacks
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