Top Tier

Zack Wheeler vs. NYM

The ex-Met has been dominant this year and his last two starts have been no different. He’s allowed one earned run over his last two starts while striking out 17 batters across 12.2 IP. To say the Mets offense hasn’t been better in September would be doing it wrong, so I definitely will acknowledge that fact. Wheeler’s faced the Mets four times already this season and has pitched to a 2.15 ERA and has averaged 27.3 DKP/game. Wheeler is the top priced arm on this slate for a reason.

Logan Webb vs. ATL

Good luck beating Webb in San Fran. He hasn’t lost this year at home and has a sparkling 1.66 ERA to go along with it. It’s crazy to see the difference in some splits from his home starts to his road ones. He has a 30% K-rate at home and a 23% mark on the road. He’s allowed 10 ER and has stranded 89% of base runners pitching on his home mound. He’s already shut Atlanta down once this year and number two is coming tonight.

Mid Tier

Dylan Cease vs. TEX

It’s hard to ignore this tasty match-up for Cease even if he’s coming off arguably his worst start of the year. Texas’ offense has been improved over the last month (19th in OPS), but they’re still dead last in that category since the All-Star break. Cease’s problem is he’s susceptible to the long ball, but Texas really doesn’t hit for much power. They’ve only hit 48 since the break, which is tied for the second fewest in baseball. Cease is viable in all formats on Friday.

Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. MIN

Your guess is as good as mine when we’ll get a good version of Ryu, but this feels like a spot we will get just that. Since the start of September, Minnesota is 24th in OPS and 25th in wOBA. They also happen to be striking out over 24% of the time and have shuffled through a lot of moving parts in their lineup seemingly each and every day. Minnesota lifts the ball and Ryu gets ground balls at a 50% clip. They’re going to have a hard time lifting it against him, playing right into Ryu’s hands. 

Value Tier

Elieser Hernandez vs. PIT

I suspect a lot of ownership heads Hernandez’s way and I can’t say I’d blame anyone for it. The Pirates have a .721 OPS as a team over the last 30 days and are 28th in OPS since the All-Star break. The only thing that they don’t do is strike out a lot. They only have struck out 22% of the time since the break, but Hernandez has generated strikeouts at a 23.4% clip. Hernandez has faced Pittsburgh once already this season and allowed just one run over five innings while striking out six.

Cole Irvin vs. LAA

The Angels offense has been in a tailspin lately and we’ve attacked them with pitchers throughout the month of September and we’re not stopping now. They’re 28th in OPS and wOBA in September and have a strikeout rate of 26.7%. Irvin’s coming off a great start, twirling seven innings of two run ball while striking out eight. The eight strikeouts are a bit of an anomaly, but the match-up is a plus one for Irvin.