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Quarterback

Taylor Heinicke vs. ATL ($26)

It’s never a great sign seeing a game total on the decline but 47.5 is still very solid and a game we want exposure too. Both of these defenses had struggled mightily this year and the Falcons rank 26th in pass DVOA this season. The Falcons two starting corners in Fabian Moreau and AJ Terrell rank 80 and 49 out of 100 qualified corners this year, so they have a massive advantage on the outside this week. Curtis Samuel could be back and Antonio Gibson is questionable, which could potentially force the Football Team to approach this game with a pass-heavy approach. Heinicke has contributed in the running game as well, scoring a touchdown on the ground in Week 3 while attempting eight rushes. We’ve seen a 20 FP floor the last two weeks and if he limits the turnovers, there’s untapped upside as well.

Running Back

Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. PHI ($18)

I don’t love the fact that he lost a fumble for a second consecutive week, but he didn’t lose one his entire rookie campaign, so this isn’t something we should be concerned about long term. I don’t love that his snap count has gone down each week, but his volume hasn’t. He had 17 carries and two receptions in Week 3 and has had double-digit touches in all three games this season. Philly was just lit up by Dallas running backs in Week 3 and rank 22nd in rush DVOA this year. The RB position has averaged over 23 FP/game against Philly this year and that’s in large part due to nearly seven receptions per game they’ve allowed them. CEH saw 50+ targets a year ago and is more than capable to contribute in that facet of the game. This game script could favor CEH, too. If Kansas City is staked a big league, they could turn and hand the ball off quite a bit.

Wide Receiver

DeVonta Smith vs. KC ($17)

How about some correlation, y’all?! After a tough Week 3, Smith is in a prime spot in Week 4 to do some serious damage. The Chiefs rate out as the worst pass defense in the league, checking in at number 32 in pass DVOA. They’ve also allowed 11th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Smith has seen a decent workload -- six or more targets in each of the first three games of the year -- but the production hasn’t followed suit. Per playerprofiler, Smith has 225 unrealized air yards this year, which is the third most in football. His 306 air yards in 16th in the league too. A big play is coming this week from Smith against the weak Chiefs secondary.

Brandon Aiyuk vs. SEA ($15)

Out of the 70 possible snaps Aiyuk could have played in Week 3 he played 60. What a difference a couple weeks make, huh? Aiyuk played just three fewer snaps and ran just three fewer routes than Deebo Samuel did in Week 3. The 49ers have a 27.5 implied point total this week, the sixth highest mark on the slate. Seattle is 27th in pass DVOA this year a year after finishing 20th in that department. They do not have a great secondary and we should expect the 49ers to exploit this fact. It’s worth noting that George Kittle is banged up and much like we saw with DeAndre Hopkins in Week 3, could possibly be used as a decoy, which would further Aiyuk’s relevance in the passing game in Week 4. 

Tight End

Evan Engram vs. NO ($12)

Everyone duck, head for the hills, get to safety. That’s not what this is. This, however, provides us with upside. Engram was one of five tight ends last year that saw at least 100 targets, finishing fourth with 109 total. He has a fantastic opportunity in this spot as both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton have been ruled out, putting him atop the target tree along with Kenny Golladay and Saquon Barkely out of the backfield. In Engram’s first game back from injury, he ran 31 routes on his 39 snaps played. Kyle Rudolph, Giants second TE, blocked on 19 of his 29 snaps if anyone was concerned about Engram’s usage at all. With Shepard out, Engram is going to dominate the slot. He played 26 snaps out of the slot last week for context.