Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros

Money line: HOU -135

O/U: 7.5

 

Pitchers

Lance Lynn, CWS

Hard not to like Lynn here. He was a Cy Young candidate all year long. The problem is he’s facing one of the best offenses in the game in Houston. They were fourth in OPS during the month of September and fourth in OPS against right-handed pitching throughout the entire year. Lynn’s ability to miss bats is elite, but the Astros don’t strike out all that often. The Astros actually ranked 29th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching this year at just 20%. I prefer McCullers in this match-up, but Lynn is solid.

Lance McCullers Jr., HOU

McCullers has been extremely good all year long and has been the Astros best starter this season. He pitched to a 3.16 ERA and bettered that over his last 10 starts of the regular season pitching to a 3.04 ERA. He is coming into this game hurling five straight quality starts. He faced the White Sox twice this season and beat them twice, putting up a 2.08 ERA while striking out 14 batters across 13 innings. McCullers is the slight Vegas favorite here and I’d lean rostering him over Lynn.

Hitters

The White Sox best hitters against right-handed pitching this year;

The Astros best hitters against right-handed pitching this year;

  • Michael Brantley, OF - .363 AVG, .418 OBP, .507 SLG%, .924 OPS, .399 wOBA
  • Kyle Tucker, OF - .299 AVG, .545 SLG%, .920 OPS, .246 ISO, 17 HR, 14 SB, .385 wOBA
  • Yordan Alvarez, OF - 20 HR, .530 SLG%, .874 OPS, .256 ISO, .368 wOBA
  • Jose Altuve, 2B - .278 AVG, .24 HR, .505 SLG%, .862 OPS, .227 ISO, .366 wOBA
  • Carlos Correa, SS - 21 HR, .348 OBP, .504 SLG%, .853 OPS, .230 ISO, .361 wOBA
  • Yuli Gurriel, 1B - .315 AVG, .378 OBP, .805 OPS, .350 wOBA

 

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

Money line: TB -155

O/U: 7.5
 

Pitchers

Shane McClanahan, TB

The chalky combination of arms today on two-pitcher sites will be Lance McCullers and rookie Shane McClanahan. McClanahan had a great rookie season, pitching to a 3.43 ERA while striking out 141 batters across 123.1 IP. He’s truly a special arm and has a lot of experience against this Red Sox team. He faced them on three occasions during the regular season, pitching to a .281 ERA while striking out 18 batters in 16 IP. The strikeout is going to be a very big deal here, because McClanahan misses a lot of bats while the Red Sox haven’t struck out against lefties much this year. They have the third lowest K-rate against LHP this season. I’m not suggesting fading the rookie, but a contrarian approach could be stacking against him.

Eduardo Rodríguez, BOS

There are a few interesting notes here that could lead to rostering the Red Sox lefty in your DFS lineups today. First, the Rays struck out a TON against southpaws this year. They had the third highest strikeout rate at 25.6% across major league baseball. Despite a lot of ups and downs this year, Rodriguez registered a 27.3% K-rate, which is the highest mark of his career. He has pitched significantly better on the road this year, notching a 9-4 W/L with a .395 ERA, compared to a 5.95 ERA in Fenway Park. Here’s your contrarian play on the mound.

Hitters

The Red Sox best hitters against left-handed pitching this year;

  • José Iglesias, 2B *23 PA sample* - .381 AVG, .435 OBP, .911 OPS, .397 wOBA
  • Hunter Renfroe, OF - .276 AVG, .362 OBP, .519 SLG%, .882 OPS, 11 HR, .243 ISO, .375 wOBA
  • Bobby Dalbec, 1B - .278, .362 OBP, .519 wOBA, .882 OPS, 11 HR, .273 ISO, .366 wOBA
  • Kyle Schwarber, 1B/OF - .313 AVG, .411 OBP, .869 OPS, .382 wOBA
  • Kiké Hernández, 2B/OF - .361 OBP, .490 SLG%, .850 OPS, .230 ISO, .362 wOBA
  • J.D. Martinez, OF *QUESTIONABLE* - .279 AVG, 9 HR, .485 SLG%, .826 OPS, .342 wOBA
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS - .284 AVG, 8 HR, .376 OBP, .818 OPS, .355 wOBA
  • Kevin Plawecki, C *may not start* - .372 OBP, .794 OPS, .349 wOBA

The Rays best hitters against left-handed pitching this year;

  • Mike Zunino, C - .342 AVG, 16 HR, .419 OBP, .868 SLG%, 1.287 OPS, .526 ISO, .519 wOBA
  • Wander Franco, SS - .357 AVG, .418 OBP, .602 SLG%, 1.020 OPS, .245 ISO, .429 wOBA
  • Randy Arozarena, OF - .302 AVG, 10 HR, .386 OBP, .535 wOBA, .921 OPS, .233 ISO, .387 wOBA
  • Yandy Díaz, 3B - .288 AVG, .367 OBP, .812 OPS, .347 wOBA

 

POSITIONSTOP TIERMID TIERVALUE TIER
PITCHERSLance McCullersShane McClanahanEduardo Rodríguez
HITTERSKyle TuckerXander BogaertsMichael Brantley
HITTERSWander FrancoHunter RenfroeGavin Sheets
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Position Top Tier Mid-Tier Value-Tier
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