Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
Money line: HOU -135
O/U: 7.5
Pitchers
Lance Lynn, CWS
Hard not to like Lynn here. He was a Cy Young candidate all year long. The problem is he’s facing one of the best offenses in the game in Houston. They were fourth in OPS during the month of September and fourth in OPS against right-handed pitching throughout the entire year. Lynn’s ability to miss bats is elite, but the Astros don’t strike out all that often. The Astros actually ranked 29th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching this year at just 20%. I prefer McCullers in this match-up, but Lynn is solid.
Lance McCullers Jr., HOU
McCullers has been extremely good all year long and has been the Astros best starter this season. He pitched to a 3.16 ERA and bettered that over his last 10 starts of the regular season pitching to a 3.04 ERA. He is coming into this game hurling five straight quality starts. He faced the White Sox twice this season and beat them twice, putting up a 2.08 ERA while striking out 14 batters across 13 innings. McCullers is the slight Vegas favorite here and I’d lean rostering him over Lynn.
Hitters
The White Sox best hitters against right-handed pitching this year;
- Yasmani Grandal, C - .512 SLG%, .909 OPS, .279 ISO, .389 wOBA 17 HR
- Gavin Sheets, 1B - .556 SLG%, .900 OPS, .289 ISO, .378 wOBA, 11 HR
- Luis Robert, OF - .321 AVG, .500 SLG%, .860 OPS, .367 wOBA, 6 SB, 7 HR
- Yoán Moncada, 3B - .385 OBP, .816 OPS, 12-of-14 HR, .352 wOBA
- Tim Anderson, SS - .336 OBP, .799 OPS, 13 HR, 16 SB, .342 wOBA
- Eloy Jiménez, OF - .475 SLG%, .795 OPS, .200 ISO
- José Abreu, 1B - .346 OBP, 19 HR, .191 ISO, .338 wOBA
The Astros best hitters against right-handed pitching this year;
- Michael Brantley, OF - .363 AVG, .418 OBP, .507 SLG%, .924 OPS, .399 wOBA
- Kyle Tucker, OF - .299 AVG, .545 SLG%, .920 OPS, .246 ISO, 17 HR, 14 SB, .385 wOBA
- Yordan Alvarez, OF - 20 HR, .530 SLG%, .874 OPS, .256 ISO, .368 wOBA
- Jose Altuve, 2B - .278 AVG, .24 HR, .505 SLG%, .862 OPS, .227 ISO, .366 wOBA
- Carlos Correa, SS - 21 HR, .348 OBP, .504 SLG%, .853 OPS, .230 ISO, .361 wOBA
- Yuli Gurriel, 1B - .315 AVG, .378 OBP, .805 OPS, .350 wOBA
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Money line: TB -155
O/U: 7.5
Pitchers
Shane McClanahan, TB
The chalky combination of arms today on two-pitcher sites will be Lance McCullers and rookie Shane McClanahan. McClanahan had a great rookie season, pitching to a 3.43 ERA while striking out 141 batters across 123.1 IP. He’s truly a special arm and has a lot of experience against this Red Sox team. He faced them on three occasions during the regular season, pitching to a .281 ERA while striking out 18 batters in 16 IP. The strikeout is going to be a very big deal here, because McClanahan misses a lot of bats while the Red Sox haven’t struck out against lefties much this year. They have the third lowest K-rate against LHP this season. I’m not suggesting fading the rookie, but a contrarian approach could be stacking against him.
Eduardo RodrÃguez, BOS
There are a few interesting notes here that could lead to rostering the Red Sox lefty in your DFS lineups today. First, the Rays struck out a TON against southpaws this year. They had the third highest strikeout rate at 25.6% across major league baseball. Despite a lot of ups and downs this year, Rodriguez registered a 27.3% K-rate, which is the highest mark of his career. He has pitched significantly better on the road this year, notching a 9-4 W/L with a .395 ERA, compared to a 5.95 ERA in Fenway Park. Here’s your contrarian play on the mound.
Hitters
The Red Sox best hitters against left-handed pitching this year;
- José Iglesias, 2B *23 PA sample* - .381 AVG, .435 OBP, .911 OPS, .397 wOBA
- Hunter Renfroe, OF - .276 AVG, .362 OBP, .519 SLG%, .882 OPS, 11 HR, .243 ISO, .375 wOBA
- Bobby Dalbec, 1B - .278, .362 OBP, .519 wOBA, .882 OPS, 11 HR, .273 ISO, .366 wOBA
- Kyle Schwarber, 1B/OF - .313 AVG, .411 OBP, .869 OPS, .382 wOBA
- Kiké Hernández, 2B/OF - .361 OBP, .490 SLG%, .850 OPS, .230 ISO, .362 wOBA
- J.D. Martinez, OF *QUESTIONABLE* - .279 AVG, 9 HR, .485 SLG%, .826 OPS, .342 wOBA
- Xander Bogaerts, SS - .284 AVG, 8 HR, .376 OBP, .818 OPS, .355 wOBA
- Kevin Plawecki, C *may not start* - .372 OBP, .794 OPS, .349 wOBA
The Rays best hitters against left-handed pitching this year;
- Mike Zunino, C - .342 AVG, 16 HR, .419 OBP, .868 SLG%, 1.287 OPS, .526 ISO, .519 wOBA
- Wander Franco, SS - .357 AVG, .418 OBP, .602 SLG%, 1.020 OPS, .245 ISO, .429 wOBA
- Randy Arozarena, OF - .302 AVG, 10 HR, .386 OBP, .535 wOBA, .921 OPS, .233 ISO, .387 wOBA
- Yandy DÃaz, 3B - .288 AVG, .367 OBP, .812 OPS, .347 wOBA
| POSITIONS | TOP TIER | MID TIER | VALUE TIER |
| PITCHERS | Lance McCullers | Shane McClanahan | Eduardo RodrÃguez |
| HITTERS | Kyle Tucker | Xander Bogaerts | Michael Brantley |
| HITTERS | Wander Franco | Hunter Renfroe | Gavin Sheets |
FD | Position | Top Tier | Mid-Tier | Value-Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| P | Lance McCullers | Shane McClanahan | Eduardo Rodriguez |
| Hitters | Xander Bogaerts | Wander Franco | Mike Zunino |
| Hitters | Randy Arozarena | Kyle Tucker | Michael Brantley |
DK | Position | Top Tier | Mid-Tier | Value-Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| P | Lance McCullers | Lance Lynn | Eduardo Rodriguez |
| Hitters | Xander Bogaerts | Hunter Renfroe | Mike Zunino |
| Hitters | Randy Arozarena | Yasmani Grandal | Michael Brantley |
Player News
Mariners sent RHP Casey Lawrence outright to Triple-A Tacoma.
Lawrence can become a free agent or return to Tacoma. He was DFA’d on Saturday without ever pitching during his latest stint with the Mariners.
Twins optioned RHP Travis Adams to Triple-A St. Paul.
Adams didn’t pitch during his three days with the Twins. He’s going back down now to make room for Simeon Woods Richardson, who will be officially called up Tuesday to start against the Rangers.
Padres activated RHP Matt Waldron from the 60-day injured list and optioned him to Triple-A El Paso.
This actually happened last week, but we missed it. Waldron, who had a 4.91 ERA in 146 2/3 innings for the Padres last year, had been on the IL since the beginning of the season with an oblique strain. He’s allowed five earned runs over nine innings since rejoining El Paso on a rehab assignment.
Athletics OF prospect Colby Thomas went 3-for-5 with a home run, stolen base, two runs scored, and two RBI for Triple-A Las Vegas on Sunday.
Thomas is now hitting .306 with 15 home runs and three steals on the season at Triple-A. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster, which is why fellow prospect Denzel Clarke got the first outfield shot over him; however, Thomas is pushing for his chance as well. The Athletics demoted JJ Bleday once this season, and despite the fact that they recently called him back up, they could decide to give Thomas a chance if they move on from Bleday again.
Yankees OF prospect Brennen Davis went 2-for-4 with a double, a home run, two runs scored, and two RBI for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Davis was a top prospect for the Cubs, ranked as high as 16th overall by Baseball America back in 2022. However, injuries sidetracked his progress, and the Cubs non-tendered him in the off-season. The Yankees brought him in on a minor league contract, and he’s gone 9-for-19 in five games at Triple-A with two home runs and five RBI. The Yankees have a crowded outfield, so there’s no guarantee Davis gets a shot this season, but it would be a big win for his career if the 25-year-old can have a steady run of production in the minors this year.
Reds RHP prospect Chase Burnes is being promoted to Triple-A Louisville.
The second overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, Burns has dominated at Double-A, registering a 1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, and 55 strikeouts in 42 innings. He’s the Reds’ top prospect and the 11th-ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. The Reds will likely give him a few starts at Triple-A, but if the team trades Nick Martinez and/or Wade Miley before the trade deadline, Burns could see some MLB starts at the end of the season.