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Quarterback
Daniel Jones, NYG vs. DAL ($25)
It’s not the best match-up in the world as Dallas’ defense has been really, really good this season, ranking 10th in pass DVOA. That said, they’ve allowed 1,344 yards through the air, which is the most in the league for teams that haven’t played five times. Dallas has struggled with the run, ranking 19th in rush DVOA. There are a few other things that play into Jones' hands here. This total opened at 49.5 and has risen all the way to 52.5, which is the biggest spike of the slate. Dallas being 7.5 point favorites as well suggests a pass heavy attack for the Giants as they are likely trailing a lot in this contest. We know Jones’ ability to run and pass and that’s what’s led him to being a QB1 through four weeks of the season.
Running Back
Leonard Fournette, TB vs. MIA ($18)
I’m going to echo my friend Adam Ronis’ thoughts on Uncle Lenny here. Miami’s rush defense has been trash through four games this year. THREE 100 yard rushers in three games and could have easily been four if Buffalo didn’t divvy up the work between two guys. They’re 20th in rush DVOA and have allowed the third most rushing yards this year and the Seahawks, who have played five games, are one of the teams ahead of them. Yes Gio Bernard could be returning this week as he’s practiced on a limited basis, but with Tampa Bay likely leading this game from the outset, it could be a run-heavy attack. This is completely Fournette’s backfield right now. He played 63 snaps compared to Ronald Jones’ 13 in Week 4 and out touched him 23 to six.
Wide Receiver
Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. TB ($19)
Here’s a nice little correlation for us. We love Fournette because Miami’s rush defense is subpar and we love the game script for him. But how about the game script for this Miami passing attack? Will Fuller is out, they’re likely going to be trailing a lot and suddenly DeVante Parker has a sore hammy and will be a game-time decision for Week 5. The cherry on top is that Tampa Bay’s secondary is patched together with a stapler due to all the injuries they’ve suffered through. Both Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis are on IR and Richard Sherman is 33 and was just signed off the street and thrown into the mix. We’ve already seen the rapport Waddle and Jacoby Brissett have if you look at Week 3 when Brissett targeted Waddle 13 times. Waddle hasn’t stretched the field yet, but averaged 18.9 YP/rec in college and is a vertical threat. Don’t get that twisted. He’s a perfect correlation to your Fournette play and is under $20 to boot.
Robby Anderson, CAR vs. PHI ($12)
It’s interesting that we’ve gotten to this point that Anderson is just two dollars away from minimum salary considering he’s a week removed from an 11 target game, which equaled the number through the first three weeks. The Eagles were just torched by Patrick Mahomes for five passing touchdowns and yes, it was Patrick Mahomes, but the point remains; their secondary is exploitable. They’re 22nd in pass DVOA this year. Christian McCaffrey is officially listed as doubtful and that only opens up more opportunities for Anderson. We know Anderson can go get them with the best of ‘em. I like Anderson in GPPs while everyone takes a look at DJ Moore. Moore himself is a great play, by the way.
Tight End
Evan Engram, NYG vs. DAL
We’re 100% going back to the well here and I don’t CARE who knows it! After missing the first two games of the year, Engram’s role picked up right where it left off last year as he’s been targeted six times in each of the first two games. With Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton unlikely to play -- as they’ve yet to practice this week -- Engram’s opportunity and role in this offense grows tremendously. I’m pairing him with Jones in my Giants stacks as they’ve built a rapport and like I mentioned when talking about Jones, the game script favors the Giants passing attack and their pass catching options. If they’re trailing early, look for Jones to throw a lot. Engram ran an impressive 33 routes in Week 4 and that number should continue to be consistently there considering how much of a match-up problem he is out of the slot for defenses. Dallas’ defense has allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing tight ends as the icing on the cake here. UPDATE - Sterling Shepard & Darius Slayton have been ruled OUT.