What is going on FANation! We went 3-0 with yesterday's PrizePick plays so let's keep the momentum going with today's five game NBA main slate! 

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Today's Top Plays

James Harden o14.5 1H Points

This play is contingent on the belief that Kyrie Irving will not be active tonight. Despite this being a home game the Nets can actually play the non-vaccinated Kyrie Irving and only face a warning for tonight and escalating fines that max out at $5,000 for games that Irving plays in New York while not vaccinated. This could lead to the Nets just deciding to play Irving and pay the small fine for doing so.

Now, that said, we know for sure there is no Kevin Durant, Patty Mills, LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Claxton tonight for the Nets. Assuming Kyrie also sits this puts Harden in an elite spot against the Thunder who are a middling defensive team. In four games this season which Durant was not active this season, Irving also out, Harden eclipsed the 14.5 first half point total in three of those four games with the one game which he missed he finished with 14 first half points.  Harden has a 35% usage rate this season with the above mentioned players off the floor and averages nearly a point a minute. 

James Harden 1st Half Scoring without Kevin Durant active

 

D'Angelo Russell o2.5 3PM

This number feels incorrect given the recent stretch of shooting from Russell from three-point range. Add the fact that over the last 10 games he is averaging 3.2 three-pointers per game while shooting 40.5% from three-point range. Russell has hit the OVER on 2.5 three-pointers in eight of the last 10 games. Memphis also struggles to defend the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot 36.4% from three-point range this season which is the fifth worst in the NBA.

D'Angelo Russell 3PM over the last 10 games

 

Jonas Valanciunas o16.5 Points

This line I strongly believe is going to move. I've seen it as high as 18.5 on some books and it is 17.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook at a -125 on the over. In TWO games against the Clippers this season Valanciunas is averaging 32.5 points per game….He is averaging nearly 2x what his point prop is set at against the Clippers tonight. I know of late his scoring has been hit or miss, going over the 16.5 in just six of the last 10 games but I can't ignore the discount we are seeing on PrizePicks tonight with this play. I am OK playing it at 17.5 here as well, anything more I probably lay off of it just given the recent form.

Jonas Valanciunas Point Totals L10 Games
Jonas Valanciunas vs Clippers

Graphics Credit

www.Props.Cash

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