Top-Tier
Clayton Kershaw, LAD – Kershaw is the only ace on the slate and you can expect very high ownership with him today. He is having another great year with nine wins, a 3.25 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, and 124 strikeouts across 102.1 innings pitched. He has at least six punch-outs in nine straight starts and he has at least nine in four of his past five. This matchup with the Nationals is a fine one as they are 25th in runs per game, averaging just 4.08 per. He faced the Nationals earlier this season and he fired six shutout innings while picking up the win and striking out six. And, again, with the pitching options on today’s slate, it probably isn’t the right day to fade Kershaw.
Jake Odorizzi, HOU – Odorizzi’s stats for the year aren’t all that great and wouldn’t make you want to spend this type of money, but he’s been on a roll lately. Over his last three outings he has not allowed a run over 14 innings of work while giving up just four total hits and striking out 15 in that span. He’s been much better on the road with a 3.26 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and 11.6 K/9 across four outings, compared to a 5.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 7.3 K/9 across five outings at home. Today he gets Cleveland and they are averaging just 2.00 runs per game over their last three games. They also have a 25.3-percent strikeout rate over the last 14 days, which is sixth highest in the league in that span and they’ve only scored 46 runs in that timeframe which is 26th in the league.
Mid-Tier
Marco Gonzales, SEA – Gonzales hasn’t been great this season, but he’s been pitching better of late. He has a 3.62 ERA and 34 strikeouts across his last 37.1 innings of work (seven starts) and he is coming off a strong outing in which he fired 6.1 innings of two-run ball while striking out six. He has been much better at home this year with a 3.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across five starts, compared to a 6.98 ERA and 1.55 WHIP across four road starts. Today he gets a solid matchup with the Rangers who are 24th in the league in runs per game, averaging just 4.11 per contest. I do like him today, but I also think I would lean the other pitcher in this matchup who has just as much upside but at a cheaper cost and a better matchup…
Jordan Lyles, TEX – Lyles was fantastic in his last start, pitching a season high seven innings while giving up just one run and striking out four in a win over the Royals. He has been pitching extremely well lately with a 3.86 ERA over his last nine outings and pitching at least six innings in six of them. He has been a better on the road with a 1.34 WHIP and 9.1 K/9, compared to 1.60 and 5.1 at home (nearly identical ERAs at home/road). Seattle’s offense is actually far worse at home, averaging just 3.98 runs per game there, compared to 4.33 on the road. They also have the third highest strikeout rate over the last 14 days with a mark of 26.8-percent. He faced the Mariners earlier this season and had a nice outing, firing six innings of three-run ball while striking out a season-high eight batters. I think he is a pretty strong play today and probably who I will pair with Kershaw on DK.
Bargain Bin
Jake Faria, ARI – Faria has pitched just eight innings so far this season, but he has pitched well with a 3.38 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 0.88 WHIP, and eight strikeouts. He pitched four innings with 67 pitches in his last outing as it appears the Dbacks are stretching him out, so I would expect him to be able to go at least 75-80 pitches today (as long as he pitches well). He has a decent matchup with the giants who have the fifth highest strikeout rate in the league over the last 14 days with a mark of 26.0-percent. He is far from a safe option and there’s no chance I would go this route in cash games, but as a very cheap SP2 for GPPs, there is upside here.