Top-Tier

Yu Darvish (R), SD – Darvish carries a 3.09 ERA and 1.00 WHIP into this contest and he has struck out 128 across 110.2 innings of work. The Marlins are 29th in runs per game with an average of 3.86 and they are only averaging 2.33 runs per game over their last three games. They also have the sixth highest strikeout rate over the last 14 days at a 25.8-percent rate. Darvish and Nola are easily the two best pitchers on today’s slate, but Darvish has the much better matchup of the two, making him my top pitcher on the slate. 

Sonny Gray (R), CIN – Gray has dealt with multiple injuries this season, but he’s been strong when on the field with a 3.65 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and 86 strikeouts across 66.2 innings of work. His ERA has been slightly worse at home but his WHIP and K/9 have both been slightly better at home. The Cardinals rank 26th in runs per game, averaging just 3.97 per contest and they rank 25th in total runs scored over the last 14 days. The only thing I don’t like about Gray today is the fact that he got a major price bump after getting rocked in his last outing… which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, but I do love him today in this matchup against a struggling offense. 

Mid-Tier

Tarik Skubal (L), DET – Skubal has been incredibly inconsistent this season, which has led to his mediocre 4.18 ERA, but he turns in good outings frequently and his 109 strikeouts across 94.2 innings of work is impressive. The Royals are averaging just 4.19 runs per game, which ranks 22nd in baseball. In his most recent start against the Royals, Skubal turned in a quality start, tossing six innings of three-run ball while striking out seven and picking up the win. The other part working in Skubal’s favor is the fact the Tigers, yes those Tigers, lead the MLB in runs scored over the last 14 days. Yes, you read that right; his chances of grabbing a win today are pretty solid. 

Tristan McKenzie, CLE – Okay this is where we get a bit wild and this is strictly a GPP play only. His 5.9 ERA is a big yikes, but his 71 punch-outs across 53.1 innings of work (12.0 K/9!) shows the type of upside he has. He was rocked in his last start, but in the start prior to that he hurled seven shutout innings, giving up just one hit and striking out nine. The Rays have a strong offense, but they have been prone to strikeouts this season, so if McKenzie is on top of his game today, he could turn in a great outing. The Rays rank fifth in strikeout rate for the season at a 26.1-percent clip. He could just as easily get shelled though, so don’t consider him anywhere near your cash lineups. 

Bargain Bin

Caleb Smith (L), ARZ – Smith’s 4.38 ERA isn’t amazing by any means, but he does have 88 strikeouts across 78 innings of work. If we take out his nine runs in one inning implosion from two starts ago, he has a 3.03 ERA across the other five starts over his last six starts. The Cubs rank 21st in runs per game with an average of 4.20. They have the seventh highest strikeout rate in baseball against lefties this season at a 25.4-percent rate. Smith is amongst a few pitchers today who have strong upside and could have great return on value, but he is another guy who is far from a sure thing.