Top-Tier
Lance McCullers, HOU – McCullers is having a really nice season with 11 wins, a 3.19 ERA, and 161 strikeouts across 138.1 innings of work. He has pitched pretty well of late too with a 3.07 ERA across his past five starts with 33 punch-outs in 29.1 innings. He has faced the Angels three times this season and he has dominated them, pitching to a 2.29 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and 10.1 K/9 across 19.2 innings pitched. They also have the third highest strikeout rate over the past 14 days and are 28th in runs scored over that same span.
Aaron Nola, PHI – Nola has not had the ball bounce his way this season has he has an ugly 4.57 ERA, but a strong 3.46 FIP and has struck out 192 hitters across 157.2 innings of work. On the bright side, this is a home game for Philly and Nola has a 3.33 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 12.0 K/9 at home this year, compared to a 5.56 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 10.1 K/9 on the road. We also know the Rockies suck at hitting on the road as they rank 29th in runs per game on the road (compared to an MLB best at home).
Mid-Tier
Max Fried, ATL – Fried is having a strong season with 11 wins, a 3.42 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 136 strikeouts across 136.2 innings of work. He has been amazing lately though with a 1.97 ERA over his last 10 starts. He should be able to keep that momentum going today when he takes on the Marlins as they rank 28th in runs per game this season. They also have the second highest strikeout rate over the past 14 days and are dead last in runs scored over that same span. Fried should have a pretty solid floor today with a decent ceiling as well, making him a solid play in any format.
Luis Patiño, TB – Patino’s 4.65 ERA isn’t lights-out by any means, but he does have 62 strikeouts across 60 innings pitched this season and he has flashed upside. He was roughed up in his previous start, but in the two outings prior (against strong offenses in Boston and the White Sox) he compiled a 2.31 ERA and two wins. Today he gets a matchup with Detroit. The Tigers have the seventh highest strikeout rate over the last 14 days. I think I prefer him over Fried in GPPs, but would take Fried over him in cash.
Bargain Bin
Patrick Corbin, WAS – Corbin has been awful this season, there really just isn’t any getting around that, but when we are looking to go cheap we have to take risks. He is coming off a solid outing in which he fired seven innings of three-run ball. He faced the Pirates earlier this season and had his best outing of the season, tossing 8.1 innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts while picking up the win. That isn’t shocking as the Pirates are dead last in runs per game this year and it’s actually not particularly close. Let’s hope for a repeat performance of that at a cheap price.
My top combos today: GPP – Nola/Patino – Cash – McCullers/Fried