Top-Tier

Sandy Alcantara, MIA – Alcantara has had a strong season with a 3.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 195 strikeouts across 200.2 innings of work as he looks to reach the 200 K plateau for the first time in his career tonight. He has pitched at least six innings in nine straight starts and he has reached at least six strikeouts in eight of those nine starts. He has been great at home with a 2.17 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 9.4 K/9, compared to 4.01, 1.23, and 8.1 on the road. He has faced the Phillies three times this season already and he has compiled a 2.65 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9 against them. Philly is 25th in runs scored over the last 14 days too, making this a solid spot for Alcantara. 

Lance Lynn, CWS – Lynn has been great this year with 10 wins, a 2.72 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 172 punch-outs across 152 innings pitched. He has been better at home across the board with a 2.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9, compared to a 2.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 on the road. He has faced the Tigers twice this season and compiled two wins, a 1.50 ERA, and 15 strikeouts across 12 innings pitched against them. Detroit is 24th in runs scored over the past 14 days and their offense overall has not been great this season. 

Mid-Tier

Ranger Suárez, PHI – Suarez is coming off a shutout in his last outing and now has seven wins, a 1.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 98 strikeouts across 99 innings pitched this year (11 starts – 13 outings). Needless to say, he’s been very good. He has at least five strikeouts in seven straight starts and has pitched at least five innings in all of those outings. He has a 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 11.3 K/9 across three outings against the Marlins this year (12 innings). Miami has the second highest strikeout in baseball over the past 14 days and they are dead last in runs scored in that same span. There is no reason to believe that Suarez won’t end his great season on a high note. 

Steven Matz, TOR – Matz has had a very solid season with a 13-7 record, 3.88 ERA, 3.77 FIP, and 139 strikeouts across 143.2 innings pitched. He has at least five strikeouts in his past five starts. The last time he faced Baltimore at home he was rock solid, firing five innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts. The Orioles have the fifth highest strikeout rate in the MLB over the past 14 days and they are 29th in runs scored over that same timeframe. In other words, they are really struggling on offense and Matz should be able to have himself a nice outing today. 

Bargain Bin

Jon Heasley, KC – The wild card deep dive GPP dart throw of the day for me. He is coming off a nice start in which he scored 15 points on DK and he has a 3.86 ERA through two starts at the big league level. The Twins have the sixth highest strikeout rate over the past 14 days. I have very little confidence in this play working out, but there is a chance it does and at this cheap of a price tag, if it does work out it puts you in a great spot with how much money it leaves you to spend on bats.