Top Tier
Derrick Henry, TEN – How much analysis is really needed here? He has at least 30 touches in three straight games and now he is facing the Jags. Kind of a no-brainer DFS play this week. (Yes, this is nearly identical to what I said last week, but its super fitting once again for this week).
Dalvin Cook, MIN – Cook was eased back into action last week, but he should be full-go this week and get back to the 20 touch plateau. This matchup should allow for him to have a pretty darn good chance of scoring at least 20 fantasy points too. Detroit is currently ranked as the second best matchup in football for running backs, giving up over 132 rush yards on the ground per game thus far and have already allowed six rushing touchdown. We just watched Montgomery and Williams destroy them last week… is there any reason to believe that will change this week? There is big time upside with Cook this week.
Mid Tier
Nick Chubb, CLE – Chubb really hasn’t had any massive games yet, but he is coming off back to back games in which he had at least 20 carries and he has had at least 83 rushing yards in every game this season. The problem is that he hasn’t been finding the end zone but he will have a good chance to change that this week when the Browns take on the Chargers. The Chargers rank as the fourth best matchup in the league for running backs this season and they are giving up the fourth most rushing yards in the league. His lack of work in the passing game drives me a bit crazy but I still expect a strong game from Chubb in this one.
D'Andre Swift, DET – On the other side of the football from Cook we have Swift. I really like the Lions passing attack in this one and that is something that can work in Swift’s favor as he has at least five targets (averaging over seven) in every game this season and at least four receptions. He has scored at least 23.7 fantasy points twice already this year and we could see it happen for a third time this week. The Vikings rank as a solid matchup for running backs in general and they have been torched every week thus far. He should be in line for a very solid game floor wise with the upside to have a big one.
James Robinson, JAX – Robinson is coming off back-to-back strong outings in which he scored 25.4 and 20.6 points while getting 20+ touches in both. There is a strong case for him to keep that momentum going against a weak Titans defense. They struggled against running backs the first three weeks of the season before doing a good job against the Jets, but the Jets consistently have the worst rushing attack in the league on a weekly basis. That should not be the case this week and the Jags should be able to put a good bit of points on the board this week against them, so don’t be surprised if Robinson finds the end zone for a third consecutive game.
Value Tier
Leonard Fournette, TB – Fournette is coming off a really strong game in which it appears he has really taken over this Bucs backfield as he rushed 20 times for 91 yards and also caught three of five targets for 47 yards to finish with 16.8 fantasy points, despite not finding the end zone. He gets another strong matchup this week as the Bucs will take on Miami at home in Tampa in a game that should favor him from a game flow sense. The Bucs should easily win this game and Fournette should once again see plenty of volume and also find space to work with as the Dolphins rank as a great matchup for running backs. I would be surprised if Fournette doesn’t get at least 15 touches in this one and I expect him to find the end zone for the first time this season.
Fades
Alvin Kamara, NO – Putting Kamara here scares me because he is so talented and could break out with a big game with just some slight game plan adjustments, but we haven’t seen it. The Saints are using Taysom Hill as their goal line “back” hence Kamara having ZERO rushing touchdowns thus far and Winston is not looking to check down to Kamara at all in the passing as Kamara somehow had ZERO targets last week. The Saints are essentially using Kamara in a Derrick Henry 2019 type role but without touchdown upside, meaning he really has no upside in this role. And it shows in the fact that his highest scoring game thus far is 20.8 points. He is averaging just 15.2 points per game thus far and at his price tag that is not coming anywhere close to cutting it. This matchup isn’t even great either. You can still take a shot in a GPP, but I can’t make any sense of rostering him this week.