MLB DFS Playbook & Core Plays: October 8

Happy Friday everyone! We are now in the think of the MLB playoffs as we have a four-game slate today with all teams in action. The Milwaukee Brewers are the biggest favorites on the slate, coming in at (-154).  The White Sox and Astros game comes in with our highest game total with an over/under set at 8.0 runs. 

Top Stacks

Chicago White Sox vs. Framber Valdez

Houston Astros vs. Lucas Giolito

Core Plays

Pitching

Corbin Burnes, MIL – Burnes had an incredible season with 11 wins and 234 strikeouts across 167 innings pitched. He led the MLB in ERA (2.43), ERA+ (176), FIP (1.63), HR/9 (0.4), K/9 (12.6), and K/BB ratio (6.88). That’s a lot of categories to be the best in the entire league in, so of course I like him today. He racked up at least 30 points on DK on 10 different occasions and scored north of 43 points four times while averaging a ridiculous 25.0 points per game on the season. The Braves have the highest strikeout rate in baseball over the last 14 days (amongst ALL teams). 

Walker Buehler, LAD – Buehler also had a great season in his own right with 16 wins, a 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 212 strikeouts across 207.2 innings pitched. He has already faced the Giants SIX times this season, compiling a 2.19 ERA, 0.97 HIP, and 33 strikeouts across 37 innings against them. In four of those games against him he scored 23.6, 30.6, 28.9, and 32.8 points on DK against them, so we know he can put up a nice score against this team. 

Chris Sale, BOS – Sale returned from the IL late in the year and jumped right back into form as he went 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 52 strikeouts across 42.2 innings pitched. He is currently the MLB ALL-TIME leader in K/BB ratio with a mark of 5.33. He faced the Rays twice this season and totaled a 2.79 ERA with nine strikeouts across 9.2 innings pitched. The Rays have the third highest strikeout rate over the past 14 days amongst the eight remaining playoff teams. 

Shane Baz, TB – Baz has a whopping three career MLB starts under his belt, but he looked great in them, going 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, and striking out 18 across 13.1 innings pitched. Two of those starts came at home and that’s where he got both of his wins while posting a 1.69 ERA and 0.56 WHIP. Right behind the Rays we have the Red Sox who have the fourth highest strikeout rate over the past 14 days amongst the remaining playoff teams and they have the second fewest runs scored among them in that same timeframe. 

Hitting

Tim Anderson, CWS – Anderson had another fantastic season, hitting .309 with 17 home runs, 18 steals, 29 doubles, and 94 runs scored. He ended the regular season slashing .389/.421/.611 over his final 13 games with three home runs and 11 runs scored. He has always been great against lefties and that was once again the case this season as he slashed .319/.343/.486 against them, compared to (an also great, but not quite as great) .306/.336/.463 against righties. Valdez was far worse at home this season with a 3.45 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, compared to a 2.88 ERA and 1.14 WHIP on the road. Anderson is an elite play today. 

Yordan Alvarez, HOU – Alvarez had a big first game to kickoff the playoffs as he bashed a double and a home run in the Astros Game 1 victory. He had a strong season, hitting .277 with 33 home runs, 35 doubles, 92 runs, and 104 RBI. Left-handed bats hit .221 with a .287 OBP against Giolito this season, compared to the .217 and .267 marks that righties produced, respectively. Alvarez is currently riding a five-game hitting streak with a pair of home runs in that span. 

Kyle Tucker, HOU – Tucker had a fantastic season, hitting .294 with 30 home runs, 14 steals, 37 doubles, and 92 RBI. He was great against righties this season as he hit .299 with a .375 OBP against them and also stole ALL 14 of his bags against them, compared to hitting .286 with a .332 OBP against lefties with zero steals. He was also FAR better at home this season as he slashed .332/.391/.615 in Houston, compared to .259/.330/.502 on the road. It would be nice to see him bat a little higher than seventh (which he 100% should), but it is what it is. 

Mike Zunino, TB – On any site that needs a catcher (and maybe even sites that don’t), Zunino is my guy. He has a very affordable price tag. He had a great season for a catcher, despite hitting just .216, as he bashed 33 home runs and had 62 RBI. Zunino crushed lefties this season, posting an MLB-best (among all hitters with at least 100 PA against lefties) 1.287 OPS, which was over .100 points higher than the NEXT closest. He slashed .342/.419/.868 against lefties with 16 home runs in just 114 at-bats. Righties slashed .291/.363/.461 against Sale this season, compared to the .154/.154/.192 line that lefties produced against him. 

Andrew Vaughn, CWS – Vaughn was on the bench for Game 1 yesterday, but I fully expect him to be in the lineup today with the White Sox facing a lefty (UPDATE: he is in fact starting). Vaughn was very strong against southpaws this season, slashing .269/.383/.555 against them with eight home runs in 119 at-bats, compared to a .221/.277/.332 line against righties with seven home runs in 298 at-bats. And as mentioned in Anderson’s section, Valdez was far worse at home this year. On top of all that, Vaughn went 3-5 (.600) against Valdez this season. 

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