The playoffs in the Cup series have arrived with the kickoff race this weekend in the form of the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington. Darlington is one of my favorite tracks on the schedule simply for its history, it’s design, the racing it’s produced, and when all else fails, the nicknames it comes with. The Lady In Black, the Track Too Tough To Tame, and Darlington Stripes will all be commonly mentioned things this weekend and you’ll see plenty of Darlington Stripes on the cars by the end of the race on Sunday, especially from those drivers that like the high line here.

This weekend we’ll see the 750-horsepower package on the cars and the same tires we’ve seen here and at Homestead-Miami, the last few years meaning the teams should be accustomed to this setup on the cars, not to mention they already raced here back in May. With 367 laps on the docket, there will be a lot of dominator points up for grabs but if you read the Track Breakdown 

Average Points By Starting Spot
The charts below show the average DFS points scored by site by starting spot regardless of the drivers that have started in those starting spots in the last five races. It is meant as a strategy tool and not a hard-and-fast rule that that spot will score that many points.


PLAYBOOK

Kyle Larson ($11,500 DK / $14,000 FD / P6)

Larson has run here twice in the last five trips, having missed all three trips last year, but in both of those runs he’s finished P2. Clearly the 5-car has been remarkably fast everywhere this year and starting P6 still puts him in reach of winning and dominating. He’s always in play this season no matter where he starts.

Kyle Busch ($11,200 DK / $13,000 FD / P12)

Busch has three top-fives in the last five Darlington races and a fourth finish in the top-10 while moving up an average of eight spots a race to get there as well. This year though, he’s been a bit hit and miss in this package on ovals with just three top-10s in the eight races. In 10 similar races over the last few years, he’s posted nine top-10s. So if the recent history at the track and similar races holds, he’s got a shot for a top-three finish but if the package history this year holds, it could be a crap shoot for Busch.

Martin Truex Jr ($11,000 DK / $13,500 FD / P10)

Truex was absolutely dominant here in May leading 248 laps with the next closest laps led leader being out front for 10 trips around the track. It was really the only track that he’s looked like his normal dominating self this year, well aside from Martinsville. All of his wins this year have come in this package and he’s finished in the top-five half the time on the ovals in this setup this year. Starting P10 gives him good PD upside with a shot to lead laps as well. Don’t be surprised if he has one of those dominating days but he can also just have a ho-hum day as well.

William Byron ($10,700 DK / $11,000 FD / P14)

Byron is the Hendrick driver with the best average finish in this package on ovals this year which might come as a surprise to some. His four top-fives and seven top-10s are both best on the team in the eight similar races and he’s finished in the top-five twice in a row here. Starting P14 gives him nice PD upside and as the furthest back Hendrick car in the starting grid it’s hard to say how his draft percentage will shake out.

Brad Keselowski ($10,400 DK / $10,200 FD / P16)

Keselowski’s track history here matches exactly how we feel about him this week...a bit of a mixed bag. He’s posted two top-fives in the last five races here and two between 11-15 but has gone backward four of five times. He’s also been so-so most of the season in this package as well but always seems to be in the right spot at the right time and has the motivation factor to go out on top with Penske. Starting where he’s starting he has a nice chance at PD and still has an average finish of 11.4 in the last five Darlington trips.

Joey Logano ($10,100 DK / $10,500 FD / P11)

Logano has all of his top-10s this year in this package and he’s posted a top-15 finish four times in the last five stops in Darlington. On the year he’s done so well in the 750-horsepower setup, he has the best average finish in the field at 5.5 with five top-fives as well. With some high-powered names higher than him in salaries and cheaper, he might fly a bit under the radar.

Kevin Harvick ($9,800 DK / $11,500 FD / P9)

Harvick has won twice here in the last four races and has the best average finish of 3.0 in the last five races in the field. All that said is great, but considering we said that at Michigan and he laid another egg, it’s becoming harder to rely on track histories with him this year. So how about this, he’s posted six top-10s in eight oval, 750-horsepower races this year and while he’s not been dominant, but if he can finish P3 and sprinkle in some fastest laps, he can hit value.

Denny Hamlin ($9,500 DK / $12,500 FD / P2)

He along with Blaney might make up one of the cheaper front rows this year aside from COTA when we had a surprise pole-sitter and that means it won’t cost much to try and get early laps led on the roster. Hamlin did run the Xfinity race on Saturday which might give him an advantage to know how the track is driving this weekend though he doesn’t need the extra run here with three top-fives in the last five races. Hamlin has a shot to be a dominator though likely he leads around 50-60 laps and then finishes in the top-five which is enough to hit value. He is still looking for his first win and what better time to get it than now and lock in a spot in the Round of 12.

Chase Elliott ($9,200 DK / $12,000 FD / P4)

Elliott has been in position to win here previously before being moved out of the way late, either on purpose or by accident, but the track history doesn’t necessarily match his running history as shown with a 9.2 average run position but a 17.6 finishing mark. While he doesn’t have a win on an oval in this package this year, he’s posted the fourth-best average finish on those tracks with five top-10s. Elliott needs to finish at least P4 and pick up some dominator points to hit value.

Alex Bowman ($8,900 DK / $10,000 FD / P5)

Bowman has a couple of top-10s here in the last five races here and does have two wins in this package on ovals this year. That being said though, the starting spot is tricky to deal with because he needs a P2 or better finish to hit value but could just as easily drop back some with some key drivers starting behind him as well. If he manages some laps led, it would mitigate him dropping a few spots and let’s face it, the 48-car is more than capable of doing that. 

Ryan Blaney ($8,500 DK / $9,800 FD / P1)

Blaney is clearly the hottest driver on the track right now, in terms of results and not looks though the #momsforblaney would have those switched. He’s on the pole this week after two-straight wins at Michigan and Daytona. While that sounds great at this price point for the shot to lead laps, and he does have that shot, there’s no real upside here in terms of PD and we’ll need him to finish in the top-five and lead about 30 laps to hit value. All of that is doable though he’s not had a top-five here in the last five races and has just one top-five in eight similar races this year. He’s a GPP play.

Austin Dillon ($8,300 DK / $8,500 FD / P21)

Every finish for Dillon in the last five trips to South Carolina has resulted in a top-20 including two top-10s with an average finish of 11.8. Over the last 10 similar races, Dillon has eight top-15s and a 10.5 average finish. While he’s not in the playoffs, it doesn’t erase his success at this track or the solidness he’s shown in this package this year along with his PD. 

Tyler Reddick ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD / P7)

The starting spot might keep some folks off of Reddick this weekend as he’s starting inside the top-10. However, given the style of racing here that fits his style of driving and the fact that he has held his own well in two of the last three races here, Reddick is a reasonable play for the hope that he moves up just a couple of spots.

Chris Buescher ($7,800 DK / $7,500 FD / P34)

Buescher is starting 14 spots further back than where he typically finishes here over the last five races and in the last 10 similar races, including Atlanta and Homestead, he’s posted five top-20s and a 19.3 average finish. He has gone backward on average this year in the 750-horsepower oval races, but that’s basically a non-factor this weekend as his average starting spot in those races was 13.8.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700 DK / $7,800 FD / P30)

Dibenedetto, and the gentleman above him in the playbook, are essentially free squares for PD with their bad showing at Daytona last weekend. Matty D has posted four top-20s in the last five Darlington races while racing in a different car nearly every year for each of those and this year he’s been very good in this package with six top-20s and five top-15s in the eight races with similar setups. Expect him to be a popular play in the mid-tier for the position differential upside.

Ross Chastain ($7,500 DK / $8,000 FD / P23)

Chastain has five top-15s and seven top-20s out of the eight oval races with this package this year suggests he’s been quite good and racy in this package. He’s also moved up a few spots a race on average in the last few Darlington races. For Chastain we’re banking on his seasonal record showing up to get his PD upside for this weekend as we’ll need a top-15 finish to hit value.

Daniel Suarez ($7,300 DK / $6,000 FD / P26)

Suarez has done well in this package this year with an average finish of 16.5 and at Darlington he’s finished about four spots higher than where he’s starting on Sunday. He also has a top-15 at this track, though only one in five races so there is some risk here.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,800 DK / $6,500 FD / P29)

Stenhouse has been on a roll recently with an average finish of 16th in the last five races this year and in this package it’s even better with an average finish of 13.4 which is 10th-best on the year. The track history isn’t quite as strong as the previous stats but starting P29 should still give him a nice shot at PD while his brand of crashing more often should keep his draft percentage low.

Chase Briscoe ($6,300 DK / $5,500 FD / P24)

Briscoe, earlier this year, finished P11 and moved up 11 spots to do so. Now he’s starting about the same spot, though a few further back, and he’s been decent in this package all year. The SHR contingent has had a rough go of it this year to be sure but momentum-wise, Briscoe has been doing better averaging a finish five spots ahead of where he’s starting on Sunday. He’ll need a P18 finish to hit value. 

Erik Jones ($6,100 DK / $5,800 FD / P22)

I get it you’re tired of Jones being in the playbook, but hey he keeps performing at the tracks we’ve liked him at. This is no different as he’s posted four top-10s in the last five races here and has a win, though in JGR equipment. The 43-car has posted six top-10s, including a top-10, in the eight races on ovals in this package this year and this could easily be another one. He’s the safest cheap option on the board, at least on DK this week.

Anthony Alfredo ($5,800 DK / $3,500 FD / P32)

Alfredo has been a joke this year for the most part and I know that’s not a great intro to a guy in the playbook, but this week he’s worth the cheap risk in GPPs. Earlier this year he started P25 and finished P26 and now he’s starting P32 and for what it’s worth he’s done solidly in this package with an average finish around 26th and a top-20. There’s risk here given how he’s done but at this price he can finish outside the top-20 and still hit value.