The second race in the opening round of the playoffs is coming this Saturday night at Richmond for the second stop there this season. It’s known as the Action Track and is the longest of the “short tracks” at three-quarters of a mile per lap and it’s between Martinsville and Bristol in terms banking. Typically at Richmond we see two dominators for laps led which isn’t shocking as there are 400 scheduled laps in the race and with that knowledge we should be trying to build lineups with two dominators for the most part but could also sell out for just the one dominator which has happened here a couple of times in the last five races.

Please check out the Track Breakdown, Podcast, and Rankings for a better layout of strategy and how each driver fits into that strategy.

Average Points By Starting Spot

These charts show the average DFS points scored by starting spot, regardless of driver starting in those spots, over the last five races at Richmond. It’s meant to show the strategy here and not necessarily the expectation for how much each driver will score.

Playbook

Kyle Busch ($11,500 DK / $13,000 FD / P15)

Busch comes in frustrated and $50K lighter in the pockets for his drive into the garage last week after wrecking out at Darlington. He’s still been hit and miss in this package this year but his Richmond-specific history outweighs that risk. He’s been elite here in the last five races with five top-10s and an average finish of 5.0 and in general JGR has dominated here recently. The price is high but if he shows up like he usually does here, Busch has a good shot to hit value and he should get a solid amount of fastest laps as well.

Chase Elliott ($11,200 DK / $10,500 FD / P13)

Hendrick hasn’t historically been very good at Richmond but Elliott does have two of their three top-fives here in the last few years. That being said, he did go backward here in April and has been a bit hit-and-miss in this package most of the year. The upside here comes from his starting spot and the chance he can finish in the top-five but there is clearly risk given the team and the track and his history.

Kyle Larson ($11,000 DK / $12,000 FD / P1)

Larson is on the pole and normally that would be a walk in the park for GPPs for him to run away and hide this season, however, he started high here in the Spring and went backward and in previous races here too. The same thing is true for Larson that is for all Hendrick drivers in that this hasn’t been the best track for that team recently. I’m not saying Larson can’t lead a big chunk of laps, because he can and likely will, but there’s a big chance that he finishes several spots further back than the pole.

Joey Logano ($10,700 DK / $12,500 FD / P6)

Logano has three top-fives here in the last five races including finishing P3 here in April after starting P5. I’ll say it again since it bears repeating but, Logano has been a lot better in the 750-horsepower package this year than the 550-package and that should hold true again this weekend. He will need to get some dominator points to hit value as even just winning won’t get him to 5x on its own.

Denny Hamlin ($10,400 DK / $13,500 FD / P2)

Hamlin obviously won last week to lock his way into the Round of 12 but that doesn’t mean that he won’t be gunning to win this weekend and make it that much tougher on his competitors to make it through the elimination race next weekend. Not to mention this is his home track and he’s in a JGR car which automatically gives him a boost here. Back in April he started second and finished second while leading 207 laps in between and we could certainly see a similar result this weekend too.

Martin Truex Jr ($10,200 DK / $14,000 FD / P3)

Truex swept the Richmond races in 2019 and has finished in the top-five every race in the last five trips to the Virginia track with an average finish of 2.4 in that span. It’s been hard to figure out Truex on a weekly basis this year but here in April he did start on the pole and lead 107 laps before finishing P5. The slight issue here is that he’ll need laps led or fastest laps to hit value at this starting spot but that’s clearly possible given how good he’s been here.

William Byron ($9,900 DK / $9,800 FD / P14)

Byron had issues last week but did have a fast car as even after it was damaged he drove it back up into the top-10. The history here is a bit sketchy for sure but here’s the thing, last week notwithstanding, Byron has the best average finish in oval races in this package this year for Hendrick. He’s one of three HMS cars starting in a row and he’s probably going to be the lowest played one, which is fair as he amounts to a dart throw.

Christopher Bell ($9,600 DK / $10,000 FD / P10)

Bell gets the boost for having run well here in the Xfinity level and now being in a JGR ride and all four of those cars have an average finish better than 10.0 in the last several races here. Like some other drivers in the top-10 he might go overlooked because of that starting spot but he’s still worth playing in GPPs in case he locks down a top-five finish and gets some fastest laps but he’s not a cash play as it’s tough to see a path to clear 5x value.

Brad Keselowski ($9,300 DK / $11,500 FD / P7)

Keselowski continues to fly under the radar but he’s got a very good history here recently with a 7.2 average finish and four top-10s in the last five races. He’s been good in this package and has been closer to Logano than Blaney in this package which is good news for DFS players. There’s also a slight benefit as his spotter, TJ Majors, will have called the race for Dale Jr. in the Xfinity race a few hours before which could give help with strategy. 

Kevin Harvick ($9,100 DK / $11,000 FD / P5)

Harvick continues to be the guy who shows up and gets top-10s in this package and appears to have a fast car but doesn’t dominate or win from week-to-week. That appears to be the case again here. He has been fast but not that dominant as he’s got a good average finish of better than 8.0 in the last five races and has led 22 laps on average and registered 31 fastest laps an event. The price means that he doesn’t have to be dominant to hit value as just a top-three finish should get him there with some fast laps tossed in for good measure.

Alex Bowman ($8,900 DK / $9,700 FD / P12)

Bowman won here in April after having a very good final stretch in the race with 70 laps led and holding off Denny Hamlin. After last week, he needs a big day to get back on the track to make the next round of the playoffs. The history here outside of the win is so-so at best so he remains a better GPP play than cash because of that and that he’s only been middle of the road in Green Flag Speed in this package this year.

Austin Dillon ($8,400 DK / $8,500 FD / P19)

Dillon is a very good driver here with four top-10s in the last five races and a 9.8 average finish in that span and in the smaller and intermediate tracks the last few years he’s been fast consistently. Starting P19 gives him a nice shot for PD in the mid-tier and as a non-playoff driver, he might be slightly under played.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100 DK / $7,800 FD / P28)

The elbows up, gritty driving style of DiBenedetto does fit short tracks well and with Richmond being the second home track to Wood Brothers, he loves trying to do well here. He ran top-10 here in April and will certainly have work to do to get to top-10 this time but the value is still there without him reaching the top-10. He’s going to be a popular play starting here and knowing how well he’s done in this package.

Aric Almirola ($7,500 DK / $9,200 FD / P9)

Almirola and flat tracks with this package go together like PB&J. He has three top-10s in the last five races here including finishing P6 here in April after starting P22. He did win at New Hampshire earlier this summer as well and historically does well at Phoenix which are both tracks that are comparable to Richmond. Starting in the top-10 might keep some people off of him but he doesn’t need much to hit value and finishing where he did earlier this year he’ll do it.

Ross Chastain ($7,200 DK / $8,300 FD / P17)

Chastain has shown very good speed recently and was arguably two great laps away from getting a win last weekend and in this package all season, the 42-car has been quick. He started P18 and finished P15 back here in the Spring and this year on similar tracks he’s run well with an average PD of nearly 5.0 in the last seven races.

Chris Buescher ($7,000 DK / $6,500 FD / P18)

The case for Buescher is more of a current one rather than track history. At Richmond he’s not been that good and typically goes backward including in the Spring as he started 12th and finished P25. In the last five races this season though, Buescher has pulled in an average finish of 11.0 and has been moving up well to get those finishes. If he keeps the good run going, he could finish a few spots higher than he’s starting then he’ll be a low-played, bottom of the mid-tier, play.

Daniel Suarez ($6,900 DK / $6,300 FD / P22)

This track, for whatever, fits Suarez’s driving style quite well as he’s posted four top-20s including a top-10 here in the last five races and has moved up 10 spots a race on average to achieve those marks. Here in the Spring he moved up from P27 to P16 in this 99-car and typically this year, the 99-team has been better in this package.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD / P23)

We don’t always think of Stenhouse as a short track racer but at Richmond that description is an apt one. He has five top-20 finishes in the last five races here with an average finish of 16.0 while averaging 18 fastest laps a race. Starting P23 he should have a good shot to reach his average finish and hit value.

Erik Jones ($6,600 DK / $5,000 FD / P31)

Jones has to finish a race he’s running well in at some point right? He was running very well at Darlington last week before having an incident and thus getting the bad starting spot this week. He has an average finish of 14.0 in the last five Richmond races and has a history of moving up several spots to get there as well. In the April race, he started P30 and finished P19.

Ryan Newman ($6,000 DK / $5,500 FD / P24)

Last week, we liked Newman because of his history of finishing in the top-15 and moving up to do that. Well guess what? He has a similar history here and is again starting outside of the top-20 which does give him nice position differential upside to finish in the mid-teens much like he did last weekend at Darlington in basically the same spot.