**UPDATED WITH CORE PLAYS AT THE BOTTOM**

Saturday night under the lights at the best short track in NASCAR? Yes, please! Add on to that that it’s an elimination race in the playoffs and things are going to get bonkers, just look at the finish to the Xfinity race on Friday night (which wasn’t a playoff race). This is a long race, 500 laps long, so buckle up for a ton of craziness and changes throughout the race. Also get ready for a ton of dominator points and laps completed points to be doled out as well.

For the strategy this week listen to the podcast with Dan and I where we really delve into it and also read the Track Breakdown which is strategy-rich piece loaded with facts and stats as well. Check out the DFS Rankings to see where I see guys fitting in builds for either site and either format. This is a week where we can go pretty even on Cash and GPP builds with GPP focusing more on hitting the laps led dominators and finishing position and Cash going with a dominator or two and PD points.


Playbook

Kyle Busch ($11,500 DK / $13,500 FD / P9)

Are we getting the Buschtol Kyle or the BS Kyle? That’s really been the question with Busch recently as he’s been more frustrated with the cars he’s been in recently than he’s been happy with them, but all of that might fall away this weekend as this has been a track that Busch has flatout dominated at. Even when he’s been struggling, Busch has managed consistent top-fives with four in the last five and an average finish of 6.2, the most laps led on average, and the second-best Driver Rating of 108.7. He will be popular given his history but the recent lack of success dulls his upside a tad.

Kyle Larson ($11,300 DK / $14,000 FD / P5)

Larson is Larson. At this point there’s nothing more to say about him other than he’s not always been the best here having run into some trouble in a previous race. There is no reason to see why he doesn’t compete for the win and compete for most laps led as well because of his record this year. He’ll be popular in all formats and for good reason but keep in mind that we do need a chunk of dominator points to hit value.

Denny Hamlin ($10,800 DK / $13,000 FD / P2)

Hamlin has a few wins here in his career and has been a frontrunner most of the time he’s come to the Tennessee track over the last few years. While starting up front should help him lead early laps, the comp caution might shuffle things around and if it does, Hamlin leads the field in Quality Passes over the last five races indicating he should move back up through the field. He should lead a chunk of laps and finish in the top-five which is basically an average Hamlin performance in this package this year.

Chase Elliott ($10,500 DK / $12,500 FD / P4)

Elliott has been solid here to be sure with four top-15 finishes in the last five with a 9.6 average finish and nearly 60 laps led per race. The problem is that he just hasn’t been that type of driver in this package this year, at least until recently. Last week Elliott was out front for nearly 60 laps and moved up well. At this price though, we need him to lead a chunk of laps and finish no worse than where he’s starting to hit value and that makes him a GPP play rather than a cash one.

Joey Logano ($10,200 DK / $11,500 FD / P3)

Logano did win the dirt race here this Spring, for whatever that’s worth but he has won here on the oval as well and has two top-fives in the last five races. It’s been well-documented that he’s done well in this package this year though it’s been mainly good finishes rather than laps led. In fact, he’s only led laps twice in the last 10 overall this year and both were at non-standard races with Watkins Glen and Daytona being the events. This play all comes down to if he can find the speed in the 22-car to lead laps in chunks because he can’t just hang around and hit value, he needs the dominator points.

Martin Truex Jr ($9,900 DK / $12,000 FD / P1)

Truex is a risk we'll start it that way. He's typically dropped back more than 10 spots a race and now he's on the pole for this one. The thought is he can lead early and then hopefully hang on that hasn't really worked for him in the past here either. For that reason he's strictly a GPP play this week for the shot on laps but zero positive PD upside.

Kurt Busch ($9,600 DK / $10,000 FD / P15)

Busch is nearly as good here as his younger brother with the difference being that elder brother has been better recently and more consistent this year. The PD upside this week is nice and will make him popular for sure as will his second-best average finish mark and his more than six spots of PD a race in the last five events here. Busch is fine for either format.

Ryan Blaney ($9,400 DK / $10,800 FD / P7)

Blaney has always had speed here and has a history of leading a bunch of laps before getting caught in an incident with lap traffic. This time however, he has the speed and consistency to be a threat late. While he didn't start off as the fastest Penske car in this package, he has been the last several races and offers a nice mix of PD and shot at laps led starting at P7.

Kevin Harvick ($9,000 DK / $11,000 FD / P8)

Harvick, in normal seasons, would be a great option starting here with a shot to lead laps as he did last year starting P4 and winning while leading a ton of laps. However, this isn’t a normal season as Harvick still hasn’t won, though he’s been consistent, and at this price he really only needs a P4 finish to hit value on DK. Harvick could still lead some laps and log a good amount of fastest laps but we’re just hoping for another good finish from the 4-car based on his season this year.

Brad Keselowski ($8,600 DK / $10,500 FD / P10)

Keselowski has a sneaky ability to lead laps here and did win here a couple years ago; His 65.6 laps led a race rank third over the last five oval races here. That being said, Keselowski has two top-fives and then two finishes between 16-20 in the last five races here which seems fitting for him. He is reasonably safe in the playoff standings right now so he doesn’t need anything drastic to move on but he’s also the type of guy that strikes when we least expect it.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,400 DK / $7,500 FD / P19)

We all know DiBenedetto nearly won here a couple of years ago but fell just short, which is something we’re getting to say more often with him now. That being said, having three top-20s in the last five races here and cooling off the last few races in terms of finishing closer to where he starts rather than moving up, makes him an interesting GPP option this week. If he shows up like he did a few years ago, he could be a slate breaker, but he’s also got equal potential to be a dud.

Austin Dillon ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD / P18)

Dillon has been loving the shorter and intermediate tracks this year and has four top-15s in the last five races here regardless of the package on the car. He also comes in having finished P18 or better in the last three races this year including P10 and P11 in the last two while moving up several spots in each of those. Like Chastain starting next to him, he’s a good way to differentiate your lineups with a lower-played driver.

Ross Chastain ($7,800 DK / $9,500 FD / P17)

Chastain has been a speed demon recently with back-to-back P7 or better finishes in the last two races coming into this weekend and has moved up at least 10 spots a race in the last three races. The track history here isn’t great, but he’s in far better equipment this time around and that’s been showing lately. Given that there are some PD upside guys starting behind him and laps led guys starting in front of him, he might be a lower-played option for differentiating your builds.

Bubba Wallace ($7,500 DK / $7,000 FD / P28)

Wallace has been a guy people have loved to hate IRL and for DFS but the value is there this week to take the shot. He’s starting outside the top-25 and has been good at short tracks recently where passing can be tough to come by and that’s true here as he’s finished nearly eight spots better here than where he’s starting Saturday. He did manage a P10 two races ago after starting P36 while in the 43-car.

Ryan Newman ($7,000 DK / $5,800 FD / P24)

Is Newman starting outside the top-20? Check. Does Newman have a good history of top-15s at this track? Checking...four in the last five...check. Has Newman moved up well recently and at this track? Double check! That’s a check for playing Newman in all formats this week.

Chris Buescher ($6,700 DK / $6,000 FD / P25)

I’ll fully admit that I wasn’t really looking at Buescher early in the week when my research began but as the week went on, it became harder and harder to ignore Buescher’s bona fides. In the last five races this year, he’s posted an average finish of 12.4 and has only finished outside the top-20 twice in the last 10 overall. Pair that with his three top-20s, including a top-10 in the race last year (starting P23), and the value is too hard to ignore. He’s fine for both builds.

Daniel Suarez ($6,600 DK / $6,300 FD / P21)

Suarez has cooled off of late, finishing about where he’s started on average in the last five races this year. However if we take into account his Bristol history, granted in different equipment, he’s averaged a finish in the mid-teens which gives him some PD upside. If the car can handle the wear and tear of this track, he could be a sneaky play in the bottom part of the salary range.

Erik Jones ($6,400 DK / $5,500 FD / P22)

Jones was special here in the JGR equipment with three top-fives in five races and this package has been better for the 43-car team this year as well. We’ve talked about how Jones tends to outperform expectations at tracks that he’s comfortable at and this is one of them. He’s also moved up a handful of spots in each of the last five races this year.

Chase Briscoe ($6,200 DK / $6,700 FD / P20)

Briscoe was great here in the Xfinity Series but hasn’t yet run the concrete oval in the Cup series. He’s been good in this package this year but still is under the radar because of SHR not having a great year. That being said, the previous driver of the 14-car, Clint Bowyer, was great at this track so this team knows how to set up that car to do well. He’s worth a shot in GPP builds at this price point.

Ryan Preece ($6,000 DK / $5,000 FD / P27)

Sometimes the stars align for certain drivers and this is one of those times for Preece. He’s a good short track racer and in the last five races this year his average finish is 19.6. Mix that with his average finish of 16.0 here, the 14th-best in the field, and his starting spot is too intriguing to ignore. He’s fine for both cash and GPP builds.

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