NASCAR DFS: Victoria's Voice 200 Playbook

**Core Plays at the bottom**

Like the Cup series, Las Vegas on Friday night kicks off the second round of the playoffs for the Truck Series with just eight drivers left vying for the shot at a championship. Vegas is usually a more docile intermediate track in terms of cautions and wrecks, but that doesn’t mean that we aren’t going to see a bunch of drivers get lapped. In the last four races here we’ve seen anywhere from 14-23 trucks finish on the lead lap after the 134 laps were completed which means we have limited PD upside for some of the drivers starting P25 and further back.

We’ve also typically seen one truck dominate in the laps led category as well. In the last four Truck races here, there has been one driver to lead between 88-108 laps in each race which means we should be targeting one laps led dominator in our builds for tonight’s contests.

Speaking of contests, they are slightly better this week with the main GPP paying 10K to first but they still aren’t as good as they were over the summer with only baseball as the other major DFS sport. That being said, I’m again treating this one similarly to last week and building five lineups to get a bit of exposure to the bigger tournaments while not doing an MME approach.

If you'd like to see a quick spreadsheet showing DK pricing, starting spots, and history for Vegas and Similar tracks click here.

Playbook

Sheldon Creed ($10,600 P9)

Creed has been great at Vegas with four top-10s and the most laps led of anyone in the field. He’s also won three times at similar distances this year and is second in laps led at them too. In the March race here he led two different times before fading back but that likely doesn’t happen this time as he has a truck that can clearly stay up front and he should be a contender for the win when all is said and done.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,400 P1)

Oh gee, would you look at that. Nemechek up front again, at this distance, just like he’s spent most of this season. He has four wins and nine top-10s in the last 10 similar distanced races and he won here back in March as well. Being on the pole gives him an inherent advantage to lead laps early and often once again on Friday night. The price is tricky though because he can’t drop back too far without leading a bunch of laps and still hit value.

Grant Enfinger ($10,000 P23)

Enfinger has been very solid at Vegas in previous races here and finished P7 here in March. He’s been adept at moving up through the field at similar tracks this year like Charlotte, Kansas, Texas, WWT, and Darlington. Him starting P23 will likely make him a popular play and DK knew that so hence the uptick in price to make him tougher to build around as a bona fide PD play. It will be very tough to build around him and either Creed or Nemecheck so you’ll have to find laps led elsewhere.

Austin Hill ($9,800 P10)

Hill put on quite the show at Vegas in March when he finished P3 after starting P31 and that goes along with his couple of wins and four top-fives here, including winning this race last year. Starting P10 gives him some PD upside as finishing in the top-five is well within his ability and he may even sneak in some laps led for a bonus as well.

Ben Rhodes ($9,200 P7)

With Rhodes, the inclusion in the playbook came down to whether or not I saw the value upside for him starting where he is. He’s been good at Vegas to be sure and has moved up a couple of spots a race on average. He’s also been solid on 1.5-mile tracks this year as well with six top-10s so far. But at this price and starting P7, is there value? Yes. If he finishes in the top-five and gets a handful of fastest laps, like he did at Charlotte and WWT, he’ll reach 5x.

Brett Moffitt ($9,100 P22)

Moffitt has an undeniably good history here at Vegas with an average finish of 9.3 in the last seven races and his average finish of 10.0 in the few similar races he’s run this year suggests where we're going with this play. He is a very good PD play and the $900 savings we get from Enfinger who’s starting next to him isn’t bad either. For this reason, he is likely a more popular play than Enfinger simply for the cost savings alone, and let’s not forget he finished P11 here in March.

Matt Crafton ($8,800 P6)

Crafton is in a similar boat to Rhodes but just a few hundred bucks cheaper. He’s got the history both here and on similar tracks to make the case for a top-six finish with seven top-10s on intermediates this year and four top-fives at Vegas. The issue though is that there isn’t much margin for error with Crafton unless he gets some laps led or fastest laps to bolster his points day.

Chandler Smith ($8,600, P2)

Smith is here strictly as a guy who’s a mid-tier driver with a shot to lead laps early. His history this year is such that when he starts close to the front he tends to go backward but he has been able to lead laps in similar races. In March he started P7 and finished P19. Smith is coming off the win last week at Bristol, and while mojo is good, it might not be enough to overpower what he typically does on intermediates. He’s a GPP play.

Stewart Friesen ($8,500 P3)

Friesen is in a weird spot this week as he’s mid-priced and starting near the front and yet could go a bit under the radar because he’s not necessarily seen as a guy who leads a ton of laps. Truth be told, we don’t need the laps led from him, we just need the top-five finish upside from him and we’re good to go. He’s finished top-five with regularity here and has five of them in 10 similar races this year including here in March when he finished P4 and led four laps. He’s fine for either format.

Dylan Lupton ($8,300 P36)

There was some discussion in Discord about Lupton on Thursday and whether he was worth it or not given the equipment he’s in this week compared to his starting spot. He is in the 34 truck for RBR this week and that truck hasn’t been a great ride all year, but does that outweigh his history here and what he’s capable of? In this race last year he started P34 and finished P14 in the 17 truck for DGR, he’s also average a finish of 12th here while starting between 25th and 26th on average. That means Lupton is used to moving up through the field and while he does need a P19 or better finish for value, he’s capable of doing it. 

Spencer Davis ($7,900 P34)

Davis has four top-20 finishes at Vegas with a 15.5 average finish and has moved up more than five spots a race in similar races this year. The truck hasn’t been great this year overall but has flashed some near top-20 speed at intermediates this year including at Darlington with a P22 finish. There is a risk here for the price but if he nabs another near top-20 finish, the value is there.

Tanner Gray ($7,700 P29)

Gray starting P22 and finished P12 here in March and has a history of moving up well here. Now in intermediate tracks this year, he’s only been so-so but at comparable tracks like Kansas and Charlotte Gray has moved up well in the field. He might be a popular play from a mid-tier PD standpoint and he’s certainly viable in both formats.

Christian Eckes ($7,300 P15)

Eckes is an interesting case as his recent runs this year haven’t really gone great but at comparable tracks, including this one in March, he had good runs and moved up well. Here in March he started P5 and finished P9 while at Kansas he moved up to P4 after starting P17 and at Charlotte, Eckes moved up 11 spots in that race as well. He won’t need to move up that far to hit value this week given he’s starting P15, so let’s take advantage of a slight misprice on DK’s part and hope for another top-11 finish from him.

Hailie Deegan ($6,800 P17)

Deegan is a controversial play, nearly every week, and if we look at her P28 finish here earlier in the year, it’s certainly not going to make a case for her. However, she has looked more comfortable on similar tracks like Charlotte and WWT as the season went on. There is still risk here that she could drop backward and finish in the 25 range but if he can in fact nab a top-15 like we saw from here at Charlotte and WWT, the value is there. She’s a GPP play.

Tate Fogleman ($6,300 P33)

Fogleman is another guy who is a Vegas-specific play as he’s been just so-so at intermediates this year but did finish top-20 in March and has three straight top-20s at this track as well. Starting outside the top-30 should give him built-in PD upside and at this price, it’s hard to turn that down. If others don’t play him because of his similar track experience, that’s fine, we’ll take the advantage.

Danny Bohn ($6,000 P26)

This is purely a call based on March and the fact that he started in the same spot as he will roll off on Friday night and finished P17 from there. He’s also had decent runs at similar tracks this year as well like Charlotte (P32 to P24) and Darlington (P27 to P20). Bohn will need a P20 or better to hit value.

Austin Wayne Self ($5,800 P13)

Self is coming into Friday night with four straight top-16 finishes and moving up a handful of spots each time. At WWT he started P15 and finished P9 and most importantly he’s hit value each and every race for the last four. Folks might look at the starting spot and simply not play him because it’s too high for a guy typically priced down here, but that’s not the case this time.

Spencer Boyd ($5,500 P31)

Boyd started P33 and finished P22 here in March and at similar tracks this year at Kansas, Darlington, WWT, and Charlotte, he’s moved up well and that’s what we’re going for with a budget guy like Boyd. He’s a fine play for either format.

Core Plays