NASCAR DFS: Autotrader EchoPark 500 Playbook

We spent a lot of time debating Harvick on the podcast this week and the shock we got from seeing him as the highest priced driver on DK. If you’re playing FD, we can certainly play Harvick without issue given the PD upside he brings at a track he’s been very strong at in the past and the speed he’s had recently across all tracks. On Draftkings though, it’s a tougher argument to make as he has to finish P6 or better to hit value without fastest laps or laps led. Can that happen? Sure, but if you’re banking on it you’re going to need a budget guy to really hit to solidify your build and thus he’s a better fit for GPPs.

Larson is on the pole...again. He’s at a 1.5-mile track that he won a $1,000,000 check at earlier this year for his win in the All-Star race. After last week’s win after blowing an alternator belt mid race, the 5-car team is feeling pretty invincible and that likely bodes well for him having a fast car this week as well. The issue with Larson though is that he has zero PD and only the shot to lead laps in his corner. You’ll need those laps led for him to hit value which he can certainly bring but don’t be shocked if he fades late in the race to finish a few spots further back.

Truex used to be the intermediate king but that’s a few years ago now and this year he’s simply been a dicey play at these types of tracks. The speed can be there for this team in spurts and if this is a race where he has speed, it could be a show to see with laps led and a solid finish, but if it’s not he could finish a few spots further back than where he’s starting.. There’s really no telling with the 19-car team this year to be honest. This suits him for GPPs better than cash at this point.

Elliott is on to the Round of 8 after a beef with Kevin Harvick for the last few playoffs races. Now he’s starting in the top-10 but at a track that he’s not posted a top-five finish in the last five races and at a distance that he hasn’t exactly been great at until finishing P2 at Vegas in the first round of the playoffs. At this price point though, we’re going to need him to be a factor in laps led or fastest laps which he can be, but the lack of a top-five finish here does give us pause. UPDATE: He is starting in the back of the field after failing tech inspection twice pre-race but he will be counted as starting P6 for DFS. He is only GPP playable now as he has to make it back to P6 to get even or positive PD upside. That being said he's capable of going fast after these tech failures so you can still keep him in your lineups to a degree.

Hamlin is starting P2 which gives him a shot at leading laps to be sure, though rolling off next to Larson might make it tough to do that, at least early on. Hamlin does have a streak of winning the opening races of each round to this point and it’s not like he’s not won at Texas before either. Hamlin has been a guy that’s lapd a ton of laps at all sorts of tracks this year and did dominate at Vegas a few races ago which is a similar track to Texas as well. He could be overlooked a bit starting here but he still has the upside we like to see.

Busch comes in as a guy who’s been better known for struggling through most of the playoffs but is still in the running for a championship even without his normal crew chief on his pit box this week. Busch has been very good at this track recently and he’s posted three top-five finishes in the last five intermediate tracks this year. The speed is still there in the 18-car at this distance as he ranks third in Green Flag Speed over the last 10 intermediate tracks; it's just a matter which KB18 we’re getting on Sunday.

Blaney has a couple of wins at intermediates this year and has typically been the best Penske car in this package as well. Starting P4 gives him a shot to hang in the top-five all day and he’s posted a few top-fives in the last five trips to Texas as well. The added benefit of that starting spot is that he might fly a bit under the radar if folks don’t believe he can lead a chunk of laps or finish first or second at the end of the day. Blaney has been good enough that he’s cash or GPP viable.

Logano has three top-fives in the last five trips here with the second-best average finish of 7.4 in that span. While most of his success has been in the higher horsepower package, he’s still been solid in this package as well and could use another solid finish to shore up his playoff standings at this point. He started P9 and finished P3 in one of the races here last year and managed to lead 22 laps and post 12 fastest laps as well which could conceivably be what happens for him on Sunday.

Busch might be my favorite play this week for cash and he’s certainly up there in the GPP ranks too. He’s starting in the middle of the pack but has finished in the top-10 all five of the last five trips to Fort Worth. We’ve also seen him do well and have nice speed at the intermediate tracks this year including a dominant win at Atlanta, which is a similar track to Texas. His price is also not prohibitive in either format or on either site so there’s really no reason not to get shares of him.

Can we ever figure out Keselowski? The week’s we’ve thought he was set up to have a great week he lays an egg and the weeks he’s under the radar he shows well. Well, he’s somewhere in between this week after being eliminated from the playoffs last week at the Roval. Three top-15 finishes here are solid but he’s also wrecked out a couple of times as well. At the last five intermediate races this year though, he’s posted three finishes between 6th and 10th. If he can hang around the top-seven he’s close to value and he could have some fastest laps as well, but there’s risk.

Bell has been a sneaky good driver at this distance and at Texas specifically he put up a top-five and an average finish of 12.0 in his two races here last year, in slightly worse equipment than he’s in now. The starting spot might scare some folks off a tad, but he doesn’t have to do much to hit value in terms of moving up through the field just a handful of spots. That makes him cash and GPP viable.

Look, I get this isn’t a flat track or the 750-horsepower package, but he’s still got the track history to back up the inclusion here. He’s posted four top-10s in the last five races here and in the last 10 intermediates he’s had six top-20s. Starting where he’s starting gives him access to PD points and being a mid-tier price gives him a reasonable shot at value.

Reddick nearly won a race here last year, though finished P2 to his teammate, and in general he’s done well here in his Cup career. The resin being added to the track should help Reddick be able to run the high line here which can be the faster line overall in some races. Starting P9 could have some folks off of him but sticking in the top-10 here is possible with that starting spot and the fact that 66-percent of top-10 finishers start there. He is fine for GPPs but a bit risky for cash simply because of the starting spot.

Dillon won here last year and has been quite solid at this track in general. The 1.5-mile tracks have been a strong spot for Dillon this year and that’s likely to be the case again this week with his familiarity to how to set up the car to do well at Texas. He could be a pretty popular play at this price and starting spot but he’s cash and GPP eligible.

DiBenedetto is down to just four Cup races left in his career, at least at this point, and that could stoke some desperation but hey we’ve been using that argument for a while now. That being said, he did start P14 and finished P8 in this race last year and has been solid at 1.5-mile tracks this year. It’s just the high ceiling isn’t there this week for him in this starting spot but there’s still a decent shot at value giving him GPP value.

What’s the rule with Newman? Starting this far back he’s a PD play nearly all the time and so that’s all we really need to know here. He’s also posted five top-20s in the last five Texas races and has moved up several spots on average to pull that off.

The rule of thumb with Jones this year has been to play him at tracks that he’s been comfortable at in the past and this week fits that bill. Jones has posted four top-10s in the last five races here and six top-20s in the last 10 intermediate tracks. There is PD here if he can have a similar run to other tracks he’s been comfortable at and he’s a low-tier cash play.

Lajoie had a 16th place finish here last year and has been sneaky quick in this package for periods of races. The question with him is can he put together a long enough run of good speed to make his position differential stick. He’s not consistent enough for cash games in the least so he’s strictly GPP this week.

Byron is a very late add to the playbook after his teammate was moved to the back to the field following inspection. The track stats don't look good for Byron admittedly but the Green Flag Speed does. He's one of the fastest drivers on the track in the last 10 intermediate races this year and he's won at these tracks as well. He might be eliminated from the championship run but that doesn't mean he can't be a factor in the race for DFS. Starting P12 gives him a better than 50-50 shot at finishing in the top-10 and lets face it the equipment is better this year to be sure since the last few times they've raced at Texas in the Hendrick Chevys. He also looked solid at the All-Star race for what that's worth as well. Given his track history he may be the under-the-radar differentiator that we need.