The season is coming to an end this weekend. That also means that we’re crowning the 2021 NASCAR Cup Champion. It’s been a long, grueling season of 35 points-paying races to this point and with one more Sunday to prove their mettle it’s the last chance for these teams to put their best efforts on the track. This is also the last time we see the Gen 6 cars on track as next year the Next-Gen car hits the track. This season we haven’t had many practice sessions or on-track qualifying but we get those this weekend.

Let’s break down Phoenix for a minute as it was the fifth race of the year and that was a while ago at this point. It’s a flat, one-mile track with an interesting layout that has changed in recent years. Just after the start-finish line is known as the Dogleg which is a very, very wide corner in which drivers will cut the corner to try and grab several spots on restarts and while racing in a group. In terms of comparable tracks, it’s most comparable to Richmond and New Hampshire and in fact, it’s sort of a reverse Richmond in terms of layout.

Tire Notes:

Following the theme of the last time we see these cars on the track, it’s also the last time we’ll see Goodyear bring 15” tire for the Cup series as the Next-Gen car switches to an 18” wheel. These tire codes have been used at quite a few races over the last few years in all three series and have been used here specifically in each race since the beginning of 2020. They’ve also been used at Richmond (all three series), New Hampshire (Cup and Xfinity), and Gateway (Trucks) so the teams have quite a few notes on how these tires perform.

Strategy Notes:

This race is 312 laps around Phoenix Raceway...yes the race name says 500 but that’s kilometers and 500 km is 312 miles. So there are a decent amount of dominator points to be gone after here. While this isn’t necessarily considered a short track, the laps can be clicked off pretty quick and thus drivers can lead a bunch of laps in a hurry. In terms of position differential, there are nearly three drivers a race in the last five races to post double-digit PD marks while there are nearly nine a race to hit the six spots of PD mark. This is also a track, like short tracks in which drivers can go down a lap with decent ease, if they’re not on pace with the top several cars. In terms of how to deal with the playoff and non-playoff drivers, we can’t get more than two playoff drivers into a build, unless you’re on FanDuel where you can get three, but given that they are expected to have the fastest cars and should be starting close to the front, we’re really only looking at them to finish well and lead laps but if they are starting high, they may not bring that much PD to the table, but we’ll wait for qualifying. Non-playoff drivers have been more likely to get up front and tangle with playoff drivers to this point than in the past, though the championship may be different, and this could mean that they may not lay back and only fight for fifth like in years past.

Facts To Know

  • There are six drivers in the field with at least four top-10s in the last five races here.
  • Eight drivers in the field have Driver Ratings over 100 in the last five races.
  • Only 26-percent of the drivers finishing in the top-10 in the last five races have started outside the top-12. There are more in non-playoff races than playoff races.
  • Three times in the last five races there’s been one driver to lead 100 or more laps but there have been at least two drivers to lead 50 or more laps in each of those, including one race with four, though not one led 100 or more in that race.
  • Over that same span, there have been anywhere from 12 to 24 drivers to finish on the lead lap with 15 drivers finishing on the lead lap twice.

The table below shows the number of drivers to reach each stat-type over the last five Phoenix races with Race 1 being the most recent.

 RaceRaceRaceRaceRace 
 12345AVG
Positive Place Differential171822222019.8
Six+ Place Differential Spots86136118.8
Double-Digit Place Differential234142.8
Double-Digit Fast Laps968667
20+ Laps Led424333.2
50+ Laps Led224322.6
100+ Laps Led120111

For the tables below:

* The DFS Scoring Table: Race 1 is the most recent race in the sample size with Race 5 being the earliest. We are using the Last 5 Phoenix races for the data.

* The Last 10 Similar table: The data is comprised of stats from the last four Phoenix, three Richmond, and three New Hampshire races.