Updated with Core Plays at the bottom

Well here we are folks, the last playbook for the 2021 NASCAR Cup season. What a great season it’s been across the 35 points-paying races, the All-Star race, the Duels, and the Clash! We’ve had some big wins both in DFS and betting this year and so let’s finish the season strong with another great weekend!

Phoenix, for the second year in a row, is the site of the championship race for better or worse. Phoenix is one of the more unique tracks on the schedule at 1-mile and being mostly flat, but then the added dogleg also adds character to the layout. In some ways it’s a reverse Richmond. The dogleg is a wide corner just after the start-finish line that allows for several cars wide of passing action and craziness on restarts. We’ll see crazy, kamikaze type moves all day especially if there’s a late caution with the title on the line.

As was stated in the Track Breakdown earlier in the week, there are 312 laps in this race and that gives a decent amount of laps led and dominator point potential. Also looking back at the Track Breakdown you’ll see how the laps led have broken down in each of the last five races here and whether it makes sense to do a one or two dominator build for your lineups. No matter which you choose, you can really only comfortably get two playoff drivers into your lineups, especially on DraftKings while it is possible on FanDuel given the super cheap drivers you can put in. Also of note is that we have on-track practice and qualifying this week and so making reference to the practice speeds is something that’ll I’ll do in the playbook analysis, but as of this writing the starting spots aren’t known. Updates will be made once the qualifying order is set.

Average Points By Starting Spot

The charts below show the points scored by starting spot on average in the last five Phoenix races.

Practice To Qualifying

This chart shows the difference between Practice Speed and Qualifying spot. The positive numbers indicate drivers that could run faster than their qualifying spot and negative numbers indicate drivers who qualified higher than their practice speed.

DriverQualSingle-Lap Speed Rank10-Lap Avg RankPrac to QualQual to L5 Avg. Fin.
Kyle Larson122-1-4.3
Denny Hamlin687-2-0.6
Chase Elliott253-3-11.2
Martin Truex Jr12186-61.8
William Byron368-3-10.6
Kyle Busch13169-34.6
Ryan Blaney471-3-7.8
Kevin Harvick9115-23.2
Brad Keselowski1114101.8
Joey Logano1014 -45.0
Christopher Bell84134-8.7
Tyler Reddick2010 10-7.0
Kurt Busch51720-12-5.2
Alex Bowman149 5-6.2
Aric Almirola182110-36.4
Matt DiBenedetto1531812-0.2
Ross Chastain1612164-8.3
Bubba Wallace2513 125.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr212319-22.4
Austin Dillon2324 -1-0.2
Erik Jones271514125.8
Ryan Newman192712-8-1.5
Daniel Suarez172622-9-5.2
Cole Custer72011-13-15.7
Chris Buescher26221548.6
Chase Briscoe2229 -7 
Corey LaJoie2419175-6.6
Ryan Preece3130 13.4
Michael McDowell2825 32.4
Justin Haley2928 15.0
Anthony Alfredo303121-1-7.0
BJ McLeod3233 -12.0
David Starr3634 2 
Josh Bilicki3737 02.0
Timmy Hill3939 01.7
Cody Ware3332 1-1.0
Quin Houff3536 -11.2
Garrett Smithley3838 03.7
Joey Gase3435 -11.0

Playbook

Kyle LarsonGame TypeGPP
DK: $11500FD: $14500Starting Spot1

Vegas has Larson as the favorite coming into the title race and for good reason. He won nine races this year and has been fast basically everywhere from the drop of the green flag. This weekend though, there’s been a bit of speed fall off over the long run at practice and if they don’t fix that during the race, or prior to, it might give him a shot to lead laps early on runs but he could drop back as the runs continue. The speed he showed in qualifying though may assuage any doubt that he can stay up front most of the day.

Denny HamlinGame TypeBoth
DK: $11000FD: $13500Starting Spot6

Hamlin is fired up after what he perceived as disrespect last week and fired up Denny is usually the Denny that shows up ready to dominate. The car was good in practice and held on to a top-six starting spot but he likely needs help from his team during the race to really have a shot at the win. His track history here is solid as well with four top-fives in the last five races. We’ll need him to lead laps to really provide the value this weekend.

Chase ElliottGame TypeGPP
DK: $10800FD: $14000Starting Spot2

Elliott is the defending champ and won that title at Phoenix. He’ll be starting P2 on Sunday and not from the rear like he did last year. The 9-car team hasn’t really been as dominant as some of the other Hendrick cars arguably all season and arguably in the playoffs he’s been the third fastest Hendrick car, if not the slowest. He should have a shot to lead laps early in the race, but he is second to this teammate by nearly .2 seconds.

Martin Truex JrGame TypeBoth
DK: $10400FD: $13000Starting Spot12

Truex will likely be the most popular playoff driver given qualifying spots since he’s starting P12 and has run well here in the past and in this package this year. The PD from a playoff driver is too hard to pass up in either format. He will be without his car chief on race day given issues trying to pass tech inspection but that shouldn’t ultimately affect much. At this salary and starting spot we don’t need laps led from him, as long as he’s moving up through the field.

Kyle BuschGame TypeGPP
DK: $9800FD: $11500Starting Spot13

Has there been any driver who’s been more frustrated this year than Busch? That being said, he’s still shown good speed in this package, ranking number one in Green Flag Speed in the last 10 races at Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond. Starting P13 he’s got room to move up but we’d need a top-five finish for him to hit value here this week and that relegates him to a GPP format play.

Ryan BlaneyGame TypeGPP
DK: $9500FD: $10500Starting Spot4

Blaney is fast once again. In fact, he’s the first non-hendrick car in the grid and ran the best 10-lap average in practice on Friday. He’s been fast all season and has shown speed here in the past and an ability to lead laps. Whether he can crack the Hendrick triumvirate in front of him is another question but he’s got the speed to at least hang on to his spot which we’ll need him to do to have any shot at value.

Kevin HarvickGame TypeGPP
DK: $9300FD: $9500Starting Spot9

Aside from Atlanta, Phoenix has been a great track for Harvicn as well. His average finish here is second-best in the field and he’s consistently put up top-five finishes in the last five races here. This year has been a different story for him without a win but he’s still shown good speed down the stretch and has been a threat to win a couple of races in the playoffs. He likely won’t try and mess with the Championship Four but if he simply gets some fastest laps and a top-five finish he comes close to value this week.

Brad KeselowskiGame TypeBoth
DK: $9100FD: $9800Starting Spot11

Keselowski came up just short of making the Championship Four after a tight finish in Martinsville last week but that hasn’t stopped him from showing up with good speed this weekend at practice. In fact, he topped the speed charts on single lap speed. Keselowski’s 9.2 average finish here in the last five races ranks fifth in the field but his 95.8-percent Top-15 Rate is third, only to his teammate Logano and Harvick, and on a track that track position matters so much, that gives him an advantage.

Joey LoganoGame TypeBoth
DK: $8900FD: $11000Starting Spot10

Logano has the best average finish of any driver in the field over the last five races here at 5.0 and hasn’t finished outside the top-10 in any of those races. He may not have run a 10-lap run at practice on Friday but he’s consistently been fast in this package all year and finished runner-up here in the Spring after starting P9. Logano’s consistency here and this season, he’s fine for any format, especially at this price.

Alex BowmanGame TypeGPP
DK: $8200FD: $9000Starting Spot14

Bowman has been running quite quickly in the playoffs and won the race last weekend at Martinsville in a slightly controversial fashion. While this is his hometown track, he’s from Tuscon, he’s not exactly performed all that well here in the past. Bowman has typically dropped backward in the last few races with three top-20s but still a -9.2 average PD mark. He’s had speed down the stretch but the history here makes him more of a GPP type play.

Aric AlmirolaGame TypeBoth
DK: $8100FD: $8500Starting Spot18

Almirola and flat tracks go together like PB&J and that was evident at New Hampshire when he got his lone win of the year. His record at Phoenix is quite good and he’s been able to run up front recently too, though that’s not expected this weekend. For a guy priced in the mid-tier to have this kind of record and success at these types of tracks, it’s a big benefit for us in roster construction.

Matt DiBenedettoGame TypeBoth
DK: $7900FD: $7700Starting Spot15

In what is likely his last Cup race, at least for a while, DiBenedetto looks to have speed in the 21-car having posted the third-best single lap run in practice, though it could’ve been a mock qualifying run. He’s also posted four top-15s here in the last five races including moving up six spots in the race this Spring.

Ross ChastainGame TypeBoth
DK: $7800FD: $7500Starting Spot16

Chastain has been flying at the shorter, flatter, tracks this year in this package and that was evident here in the Spring too as he moved up a handful of spots. If he can keep that hot streak going this weekend, he’ll make a nice GPP play for a guy with four top-20s in the last seven similar races including two top-10s. Chastain also posted the 12th-fastest lap in practice.

Bubba WallaceGame TypeBoth
DK: $7700FD: $7000Starting Spot25

The poster of three top-20s in the last five races here and a guy who’s been faster in this package this year, Wallace makes for an intriguing, perhaps under the radar, option. He’s picked up nearly five spots a race here in the last five races and here in the Spring, the 23-car went from P25 to P16. Depending on the qualifying spot, aka he qualifies in the mid-20s, he has better value but starting in the mid-teens he’s still got GPP availability.

Erik JonesGame TypeGPP
DK: $7100FD: $6800Starting Spot27

Look, I know what I said on the podcast and that Jones wasn’t a guy I was looking at this week but then practice and qualifying happened and it made a difference. He’s typically struggled here in the past, even in JGR equipment but this week he ran P15 in single-lap speeds and P14 in 10-lap average before qualifying P25. That’s really the only case I can make here. If the speed from practice shows up and he moves forward for the first time in four races here, he’s worthy of a GPP play.

Ryan NewmanGame TypeBoth
DK: $6900FD: $5000Starting Spot19

One last chance to play Newman as we expect him to be done after this season. He does have two top-20s in the last four races he’s run here and ran well at practice with a P12 10-lap average at practice. That long-run speed should help him stay around the top-15 during the race and thus bring a nice points haul.

Chris BuescherGame TypeBoth
DK: $6400FD: $6300Starting Spot26

Buescher has five top-20s in the last five races here while picking up nearly five spots of PD per race. He ran P15 in 10-lap average at practice and so if he qualifies outside the top-20 he becomes more valuable as he can live up to the PD upside that he’s posted here in the past.

Corey LajoieGame TypeBoth
DK: $6000FD: $4500Starting Spot24

Lajoie has been faster in the 750 horsepower package this year and that’s exactly what we have here. He’s not had the best of luck here in the past but he does have an average running position that’s a few spots better than what his average finish has been in the last five races. If he can finish the race well, he’ll get better PD than he normally gets.

Justin HaleyGame TypeBoth
DK: $5600FD: $4000Starting Spot29

With the Championship Four taking up a big focus this week both on track and in roster construction we’re going to need some cheaper plays with value and Haley is just that. He’s moved up here in the past, though in limited races, and looked good at similar tracks as well. He should be starting near the back of the field which gives him automatic PD upside at a budget price.

Core Plays

 DRAFTKINGS
 Top TierMid TierValue
CashMartin Truex Jr12$10,400Aric Almirola18$8,100Chris Buescher26$6,400
GPPKyle Larson1$11,500Brad Keselowski11$9,100Corey LaJoie24$6,000
 FANDUEL
 Top TierMid TierValue
CashMartin Truex Jr12$13,000Aric Almirola18$8,500Chris Buescher26$6,300
GPPKyle Larson1$14,500Brad Keselowski11$9,800Erik Jones27$6,800