Over/Under: 216
Spread: ATL -2.5
Thursday’s game was lacking star power as neither superstar was healthy enough to take the court. Milwaukee emerged victorious and the series now heads back to Atlanta with the Bucks looking to end things. It appears tonight will be a free for all once again as it likely won’t be until close to game time that we get a definitive answer on the status of Trae Young. Antetokounmpo will be sidelined once again, Milwaukee also has the upper hand here being ahead in the series, and Young might return in an attempt to keep the season going for the Hawks. With that being said, there are multiple valid directions in which we can take our lineups tonight with some providing a fair amount of salary cap relief.
Injuries
*Giannis Antetokounmpo – Out (knee)
*Trae Young – Questionable (foot)
*Bogdan Bogdanovic – Probable (knee)
Player Breakdown:
CPT/MVP
Khris Middleton – Middleton did exactly what we thought he would in Antetokounmpo’s absence as he finished two assists shy of a triple-double. The forward shot 50% from the field (10 of 20) while putting up 26 points and grabbing 13 rebounds along with eight assists and two steals. Milwaukee leaned heavily on Middleton, 45 minutes, and there’s no reason not to expect a similar performance tonight as we know he is capable of scoring at an elite level.
Trae Young – I’m not sure there is a path to victory for Atlanta without Young but their star has also been sidelined for the last two games with his aforementioned foot injury. There are going to be doubts about Young’s explosiveness and playmaking if he does take the court, so while the offensive output should be there, I’m not there will be much else.
Jrue Holiday – Milwaukee received a balanced effort on Thursday and Holiday was one of four players to eclipse the 20-point mark for the Bucks. With at least 19 points in four of five games against Atlanta so far this series Holiday’s offensive upside has been on display. On Thursday his 25 points didn’t come in place of his role as a facilitator (13 assists) as he also grabbed six rebounds. I would expect Holiday to be heavily involved once again as this is exactly why Milwaukee made the move for him this off-season. They obviously didn’t plan for Antetokounmpo to be sidelined but it is a plus to have an experienced option running the point who also possesses clear offensive upside.
Bogdan Bogdanovic – For the second straight game Bogdanovic showed that any potential issues with his knee are behind him. In 38 minutes of action on Thursday the swingman scored 28 points while adding five rebounds and four assists as part of a solid overall effort. Even if Young returns Atlanta is going to be relying heavily on Bogdanovic’s efforts.
Bobby Portis – It’s nice when the outcome we expect to happen does in fact take place. Portis stepped into the starting lineup to replace Antetokounmpo and delivered to the tune of 25 points and eight rebounds while adding three assists and three steals. After playing 35 minutes on Thursday we should expect to see Portis in a similar role tonight and it’s hard to ignore the cost savings.
MID-TIER
John Collins – After struggling offensively for the last three games Collins bounced back on Thursday with 19 points and eight rebounds. That is likely where his upside ends as Collins hasn’t consistently shown the ability to score at this level so far in the postseason. In the two games Young missed, the performance was split down the middle as Collins scored just four points in Game 4 so it’s hard to truly trust him.
Clint Capela – Capela started and played 21 minutes despite his eye injury as he turned in his third straight performance of between 25 and 30 FD points. His three blocked shots helped to make a solid DFS effort as he scored just six points while grabbing eight rebounds. Not having Young in the lineup isn’t great for Capela’s offensive upside but he did score 15 points in Game 4. To this point in the postseason Capela hasn’t shown the upside we saw from him in the regular season at any level of consistency.
Brook Lopez – After what we saw from Lopez on Thursday, it’s hard not to have our attention piqued. At the same time, we know it’s often not prudent to go chasing yesterday’s production but it’s hard to ignore what Lopez did as Milwaukee worked to fill the void created by Antetokounmpo’s absence. The center scored 33 points in 37 minutes while also grabbing seven rebounds and blocking four shots. I would expect Lopez to drop back down and finish more in the 20-to-25-point range but there is that slight chance he has a repeat offensive explosion.
DART THROWS
Kevin Huerter – Huerter is one of the more expensive options on the slate but his scoring output can be considered inconsistent. In the last two games with Young sidelined, Huerter has gone from scoring 15 points to just eight on Thursday and a healthy Bogdanovic doesn’t bode well for his offense either. On the optimistic side Huerter has handed out seven assists in each of the last three games as he looks to fill a playmaking void creating by Young’s injury so we should see him around 30 fantasy points but in the first games of the series he combined for just 29 FD points.
Danilo Gallinari – Gallinari made the most of his 22 minutes on Thursday as he put up 19 points to go along with three rebounds and one assists. It is the type of one-dimensional performance we have become accustomed to from the forward and he very easily go drop back down to the 10 points he scored in Game Four. At the same time, the price is right and we know he will play about 20 minutes per game.
P.J. Tucker – No Antetokounmpo means Tucker saw a few more minutes of playing on Thursday but we know that Milwaukee will lean on Tucker for at least 30 minutes a game no matter what. Tucker isn’t out there for his offense, five points, and whenever he reaches double figures we should consider it a nice surprise and nothing more. However, he will be active on the boards and that was certainly the case in Game Five with 11 rebounds.
Lou Williams – There is a clear upgrade for Williams if Young doesn’t take the court but with that being the case over the past two games, he has become almost unusable if that isn’t the case based on his price. Williams has produced though and he is coming off a 17 point, five assist performance on Thursday but the issue is that now serves as the basis for his price.