If you thought last week’s dogfest got weird, then buckle up. This is a PPV card with some bonkers matchups that could swing in any number of directions. Add in that it’s going down in Texas, with a crowd, and some judging that has been questionable in the past. It adds up to what could be super high variance. The top tier is pretty questionable. I’m looking to focus on the mid-range fighters with finishing ability. Don’t want to come out on the losing end of a bad split-decision.

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler8700/7500-Stackability: Moderate-130/ +120+105/+165
I'm proud of the UFC for pushing aside some of the more conventional names for this vacated belt. This is a great fight and will be a coming out party for one of these dudes. Chandler is pure athleticism, a strong wrestler, and packs a mean overhand. Oliveira is a BJJ wizard with ever more dangerous kick-boxing for his long frame. If Chandler doesn't get it done in the early going I see Oliveira breaking him down like he did to Kevin Lee and finding a finish. Chandler has never been submitted, though. I'm not looking to stack as both guys could finish it relatively early.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Antonina Shevchenko9200Andrea LeeModerate-115+537
For the older Shevchenko to hit value at this price we'll need some grappling. She has no background in it but training with Valentina rubbed off last time out and she dominated Ariana Lipski with 7:39 of top control. Lee is strong in the early going but tires and gives up takedowns.
Gina Mazany9300Priscila CachoeiraModerate-185+340
Let's not go nuts with Mazany after out-grappling Ostavich. She's still a very flawed fighter. Cachoeira is equally flawed, however, and takedown defense is a big one. If Mazany wins it's behind cardio and spam takedowns.
Christos Giagos9100Sean SorianoModerate-185+280
Giagos has the exact skillset Soriano hasn't been able to defend: wrestling with top control. He only has 7 minutes of gas in the tank, though.
Matt Schnell8900Rogerio BontorinModerate-155+210
If Schnell can withstand the early taz routine from Bontorin he should take over and win the fight. That's a big price for a guy that's been KO'd fairly easily before, however.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Beneil Dariush8600Tony FergusonModerate-157+270
War Dariush has been fun as hell to watch. After Alex Hernandez flash KO'd him he's been on a mission. He's out-striking and out-wrestling everyone put in front of him. Both are a problem for the current version of Tony. Either Dariush wrestles him into the ground or he clips the 37-year-old warrior with a few too many battles in his past.
Shane Burgos8400Edson BarbozaSomewhat-Risky-142+270
Burgos goes all out, every fight. I'll give him that. He doesn't bother to defend punches, keeping his hands low to counter. That gets him in trouble pretty often. The chin has held up to some heavy punishment since Kurt Holobolough dropped him, though. My read is that he'll eat a ton of damage but keep on ticking as Barboza tires from the pace.
Mike Grundy8200Lando VannataSomewhat-Risky-122+323
If Grundy can hit 6 takedowns on Evloev then Vannata is going to spend time on his back. To win, Grundy will have to do damage after the takedowns. He has the inside trakc to the win and it would come with probable grappling points galore.
Jacare Souza8500Andre MunizSomewhat-Risky-125+240
Let's play another round of "How washed is Jacare?" Kevin Holland does weird things and wins in crazy ways so I'm not dinging Souza too much for that loss. He should be the better boxer here and the BJJ is probably equal. How hard is the 41-year-old training at this point is the real question.
Jamie Pickett8100Jamie PickettRisky+100+180
If you get to Wright's chin the fight is over in a hurry. Pickett has the length to do it. He'll need to stay on the front foot and not get stuck defending Wright's aggressive approach.
Jordan Wright8100Jamie PickettRisky-110+180
Wright could win a decision with volume if he doesn't get cracked. I think his best path is actually some sneaky grappling and BJJ he has. Pickett has been submitted and his grappling is pretty loose.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Edson Barboza7800Shane BurgosSomewhat-Risky+132+390
The first round against Barboza can be hell. Savage kicks and quick hands. Edson needs the finish in the first half of this fight, though. Burgos is a zombie that keeps coming if the ref doesn't stop it.
Tony Ferguson7600Beneil DariushSomewhat-Risky+147+375
After getting his lights turned our by Justin Gaethje, Tony may not be the same man. He no-showed that loss to Oliveira. He's never been the best at training, at least in conventional ways. If he doesn't get KO'd or held down by the very strong Dariush, his path is the same as it always was: push a volume that almost no one can keep up with.
Rogerio Bontorin7300Matt SchnellSomewhat-Risky+145+290
Bontorin either gets you early or falls apart. Schnell is going to accept that he's the aggressor but also has the skill to corral him and pace a decision win. A GPP play if ever there was one.
Andre Muniz7700Jacare SouzaRisky+115+255
Muniz is a very live dog. Maybe he has the BJJ to hang with the legend. His striking is also wooden but at 10 years younger he may be able to just do more damage than old man Souza.
Viviane Araujo7400Katlyn ChookagianRisky+117+470
If Vivi had better cardio I'd like her more in this spot. She gets winded in the second and third, however. Chook will make you fight a very tiring and tight fight. That probably leads to a close loss for Araujo.
Sean Soriano7100Christos GiagosRisky+170+455
I'd want more Soriano action if this wasn't short notice. He's had cardio issues already. To beat Giogos you need to win the last 8 minutes since you're going to lose the first 7. Still, Soriano is a very dangerous striker that may be going tor broke knowing that.
Kevin Aguilar7900Tucker LutzRisky+105+420
Vintage Aguilar has no problem beating a very hittable Tucker Lutz. Aguilar looks like he may have lost it after too many wars, though. Lutz is a workman that won't go away unless you make him.
Priscila Cachoeira6900Gina MazanyRisky+170+470
If Cachoeira can be patient enough to withstand the time she spends getting out grappled her path is to barrage Mazany and get a stoppage. The odds are against it but she's a live dog, to be sure. Gina doesn't like it when they hit back.

 

 

Draftkings Core Plays
Top Tier
Charles Oliveira$8,700
Beneil Dariush$8,600
Mid Tier
Shane Burgos$8,400
Mike Grundy$8,200
Value TierPriscila Cachoeira$6,900


Vegas Plays:

 

Favorite Bets: Oliveira -130, Dariush -157, Chookagian -127

Favorite Props: Burgos ITD +270

Long Shot: Wright via SUB +700

Live Dogs: Chandler, Bontorin, Barboza, Muniz, Pickett, Soriano, Aguilar, Cachoeria

 

Stats & Picks: 

 

   
Charles OliveiravsMichael Chandler
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 30-8-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 22-5-0
8 KO/TKO (27%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (45%)
19 SUBMISSIONS (63%)Subs
7 SUBMISSIONS (32%)
-130Vegas Odds+120
6/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Tony FergusonvsBeneil Dariush
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 26-5-0RecordRecord: 20-4-1
12 KO/TKO (48%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (25%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (32%)Subs
8 SUBMISSIONS (40%)
+147Vegas Odds-157
3/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Matt SchnellvsRogerio Bontorin
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 15-5-0Record
Record: 16-3-0 (1 NC)
2 KO/TKO (13%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (19%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (53%)Subs
11 SUBMISSIONS (69%)
-155Vegas Odds+145
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Katlyn ChookagianvsViviane Araujo
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 15-4-0RecordRecord: 10-2-0
2 KO/TKO (13%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (30%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (7%)Subs
4 SUBMISSIONS (40%)
-127Vegas Odds+117
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Shane BurgosvsEdson Barboza
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 13-2-0RecordRecord: 21-9-0
5 KO/TKO (38%)Knockouts12 KO/TKO (57%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (38%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)
-142Vegas Odds+132
5/10Lineup Pool25/10
 0 
Jacare SouzavsAndre Muniz
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 26-9-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 20-4-0
8 KO/TKO (31%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (20%)
14 SUBMISSIONS (54%)Subs
13 SUBMISSIONS (65%)
-125Vegas Odds+115
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Lando VannatavsMike Grundy
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 11-5-2RecordRecord: 12-2-0
4 KO/TKO (36%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (8%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (45%)Subs
8 SUBMISSIONS (67%)
+112Vegas Odds-122
3/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Jordan WrightvsJamie Pickett
$8,100DFS Salary$8,100
Record: 11-1-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 11-5-0
6 KO/TKO (55%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (73%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (45%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (9%)
-110Vegas Odds+100
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Andrea LeevsAntonina Shevchenko
$7,000DFS Salary$9,200
Record: 11-5-0RecordRecord: 9-2-0
2 KO/TKO (18%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (55%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (36%)Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (45%)
+105Vegas Odds-115
3/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Gina MazanyvsPriscila Cachoeira
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 7-4-0RecordRecord: 9-3-0
3 KO/TKO (43%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (56%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (29%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-185Vegas Odds+170
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Kevin AguilarvsTucker Lutz
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 17-4-0RecordRecord: 11-1-0
10 KO/TKO (59%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (55%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (6%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%)
+105Vegas Odds-115
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Christos GiagosvsSean Soriano
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 18-8-0RecordRecord: 14-6-0
7 KO/TKO (39%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (50%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (17%)Subs
4 SUBMISSIONS (29%)
-185Vegas Odds+170
4/10Lineup Pool4/10