If you thought last week’s dogfest got weird, then buckle up. This is a PPV card with some bonkers matchups that could swing in any number of directions. Add in that it’s going down in Texas, with a crowd, and some judging that has been questionable in the past. It adds up to what could be super high variance. The top tier is pretty questionable. I’m looking to focus on the mid-range fighters with finishing ability. Don’t want to come out on the losing end of a bad split-decision.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler | 8700/7500 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -130/ +120 | +105/+165 |
I'm proud of the UFC for pushing aside some of the more conventional names for this vacated belt. This is a great fight and will be a coming out party for one of these dudes. Chandler is pure athleticism, a strong wrestler, and packs a mean overhand. Oliveira is a BJJ wizard with ever more dangerous kick-boxing for his long frame. If Chandler doesn't get it done in the early going I see Oliveira breaking him down like he did to Kevin Lee and finding a finish. Chandler has never been submitted, though. I'm not looking to stack as both guys could finish it relatively early. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Antonina Shevchenko | 9200 | Andrea Lee | Moderate | -115 | +537 |
For the older Shevchenko to hit value at this price we'll need some grappling. She has no background in it but training with Valentina rubbed off last time out and she dominated Ariana Lipski with 7:39 of top control. Lee is strong in the early going but tires and gives up takedowns. | |||||
Gina Mazany | 9300 | Priscila Cachoeira | Moderate | -185 | +340 |
Let's not go nuts with Mazany after out-grappling Ostavich. She's still a very flawed fighter. Cachoeira is equally flawed, however, and takedown defense is a big one. If Mazany wins it's behind cardio and spam takedowns. | |||||
Christos Giagos | 9100 | Sean Soriano | Moderate | -185 | +280 |
Giagos has the exact skillset Soriano hasn't been able to defend: wrestling with top control. He only has 7 minutes of gas in the tank, though. | |||||
Matt Schnell | 8900 | Rogerio Bontorin | Moderate | -155 | +210 |
If Schnell can withstand the early taz routine from Bontorin he should take over and win the fight. That's a big price for a guy that's been KO'd fairly easily before, however. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Beneil Dariush | 8600 | Tony Ferguson | Moderate | -157 | +270 |
War Dariush has been fun as hell to watch. After Alex Hernandez flash KO'd him he's been on a mission. He's out-striking and out-wrestling everyone put in front of him. Both are a problem for the current version of Tony. Either Dariush wrestles him into the ground or he clips the 37-year-old warrior with a few too many battles in his past. | |||||
Shane Burgos | 8400 | Edson Barboza | Somewhat-Risky | -142 | +270 |
Burgos goes all out, every fight. I'll give him that. He doesn't bother to defend punches, keeping his hands low to counter. That gets him in trouble pretty often. The chin has held up to some heavy punishment since Kurt Holobolough dropped him, though. My read is that he'll eat a ton of damage but keep on ticking as Barboza tires from the pace. | |||||
Mike Grundy | 8200 | Lando Vannata | Somewhat-Risky | -122 | +323 |
If Grundy can hit 6 takedowns on Evloev then Vannata is going to spend time on his back. To win, Grundy will have to do damage after the takedowns. He has the inside trakc to the win and it would come with probable grappling points galore. | |||||
Jacare Souza | 8500 | Andre Muniz | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +240 |
Let's play another round of "How washed is Jacare?" Kevin Holland does weird things and wins in crazy ways so I'm not dinging Souza too much for that loss. He should be the better boxer here and the BJJ is probably equal. How hard is the 41-year-old training at this point is the real question. | |||||
Jamie Pickett | 8100 | Jamie Pickett | Risky | +100 | +180 |
If you get to Wright's chin the fight is over in a hurry. Pickett has the length to do it. He'll need to stay on the front foot and not get stuck defending Wright's aggressive approach. | |||||
Jordan Wright | 8100 | Jamie Pickett | Risky | -110 | +180 |
Wright could win a decision with volume if he doesn't get cracked. I think his best path is actually some sneaky grappling and BJJ he has. Pickett has been submitted and his grappling is pretty loose. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Edson Barboza | 7800 | Shane Burgos | Somewhat-Risky | +132 | +390 |
The first round against Barboza can be hell. Savage kicks and quick hands. Edson needs the finish in the first half of this fight, though. Burgos is a zombie that keeps coming if the ref doesn't stop it. | |||||
Tony Ferguson | 7600 | Beneil Dariush | Somewhat-Risky | +147 | +375 |
After getting his lights turned our by Justin Gaethje, Tony may not be the same man. He no-showed that loss to Oliveira. He's never been the best at training, at least in conventional ways. If he doesn't get KO'd or held down by the very strong Dariush, his path is the same as it always was: push a volume that almost no one can keep up with. | |||||
Rogerio Bontorin | 7300 | Matt Schnell | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +290 |
Bontorin either gets you early or falls apart. Schnell is going to accept that he's the aggressor but also has the skill to corral him and pace a decision win. A GPP play if ever there was one. | |||||
Andre Muniz | 7700 | Jacare Souza | Risky | +115 | +255 |
Muniz is a very live dog. Maybe he has the BJJ to hang with the legend. His striking is also wooden but at 10 years younger he may be able to just do more damage than old man Souza. | |||||
Viviane Araujo | 7400 | Katlyn Chookagian | Risky | +117 | +470 |
If Vivi had better cardio I'd like her more in this spot. She gets winded in the second and third, however. Chook will make you fight a very tiring and tight fight. That probably leads to a close loss for Araujo. | |||||
Sean Soriano | 7100 | Christos Giagos | Risky | +170 | +455 |
I'd want more Soriano action if this wasn't short notice. He's had cardio issues already. To beat Giogos you need to win the last 8 minutes since you're going to lose the first 7. Still, Soriano is a very dangerous striker that may be going tor broke knowing that. | |||||
Kevin Aguilar | 7900 | Tucker Lutz | Risky | +105 | +420 |
Vintage Aguilar has no problem beating a very hittable Tucker Lutz. Aguilar looks like he may have lost it after too many wars, though. Lutz is a workman that won't go away unless you make him. | |||||
Priscila Cachoeira | 6900 | Gina Mazany | Risky | +170 | +470 |
If Cachoeira can be patient enough to withstand the time she spends getting out grappled her path is to barrage Mazany and get a stoppage. The odds are against it but she's a live dog, to be sure. Gina doesn't like it when they hit back. |
Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Charles Oliveira | $8,700 |
Beneil Dariush | $8,600 | |
Mid Tier | Shane Burgos | $8,400 |
Mike Grundy | $8,200 | |
Value Tier | Priscila Cachoeira | $6,900 |
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Oliveira -130, Dariush -157, Chookagian -127
Favorite Props: Burgos ITD +270
Long Shot: Wright via SUB +700
Live Dogs: Chandler, Bontorin, Barboza, Muniz, Pickett, Soriano, Aguilar, Cachoeria
Stats & Picks:
Charles Oliveira | vs | Michael Chandler |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 30-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 22-5-0 |
8 KO/TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (45%) |
19 SUBMISSIONS (63%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (32%) |
-130 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Tony Ferguson | vs | Beneil Dariush |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 26-5-0 | Record | Record: 20-4-1 |
12 KO/TKO (48%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (25%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (32%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (40%) |
+147 | Vegas Odds | -157 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Matt Schnell | vs | Rogerio Bontorin |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 16-3-0 (1 NC) |
2 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (19%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (53%) | Subs | 11 SUBMISSIONS (69%) |
-155 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Katlyn Chookagian | vs | Viviane Araujo |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
2 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (40%) |
-127 | Vegas Odds | +117 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Shane Burgos | vs | Edson Barboza |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 21-9-0 |
5 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (57%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
-142 | Vegas Odds | +132 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 5/10 |
0 | ||
Jacare Souza | vs | Andre Muniz |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 26-9-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 20-4-0 |
8 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (20%) |
14 SUBMISSIONS (54%) | Subs | 13 SUBMISSIONS (65%) |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Lando Vannata | vs | Mike Grundy |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 11-5-2 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
4 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (8%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (67%) |
+112 | Vegas Odds | -122 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Jordan Wright | vs | Jamie Pickett |
$8,100 | DFS Salary | $8,100 |
Record: 11-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-5-0 |
6 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (73%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) |
-110 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Andrea Lee | vs | Antonina Shevchenko |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 11-5-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
2 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (55%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) |
+105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Gina Mazany | vs | Priscila Cachoeira |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 7-4-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
3 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (56%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-185 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Kevin Aguilar | vs | Tucker Lutz |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
10 KO/TKO (59%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (55%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) |
+105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Christos Giagos | vs | Sean Soriano |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 18-8-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 |
7 KO/TKO (39%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (50%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
-185 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |