We’re back to Vegas this week for slightly less bad judging and the slightly smaller cage. Let’s hope for plenty of finishes. The main event should be fun while it lasts. There’s a multitude of late replacements so there will be some heavy chalk against them.
The fight between Madeiros/Hadzovic has been pulled from the card.
| Main Event | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Rob Font vs Cody Garbrandt | 8300/7900 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -110/ 100 |
| I love this matchmaking from the UFC. Font has been knocking on the door of the top 5 for some time and Garbrandt is acting like KO’ing a washed Assuncao deserves a title shot. The winner will come out of this with the shine to get a top fight. Both guys are solid boxers. Garbrandt may be a click faster with his hands. He hasn’t been able to avoid melting down and going into berserker mode in competitive fights, however. That leads to him getting clipped and knocked out when he can’t land a haymaker of his own. It’s hard not to see this fight playing out that same way. Font will fight him tight in wait for the floodgates to open. There is risk Font doesn't get there before eating the head shot Garbrandt lives and dies by. | ||||
| Expensive | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Damir Ismagulov | 9500 | Rafael Alves | Somewhat-Safe | -570 |
| Damir is a very tight boxer. He's tough as nails on top of that. He doesn't find many finishes, however. It's a hard price tag to pay off with no grappling in a decision. | ||||
| Bruno Silva | 9300 | Victor Rodriguez | Somewhat-Safe | -370 |
| Silva finally broke through against an outmatched JP Buys in his last fight. He could easily be 2-2 or 3-1 in the UFC, though. Rodriguez is a gritty fighter but that's about all he brings. Again, Silva is a fighter in need of a finish at the price but certainly capable of it. | ||||
| Ben Rothwell | 9200 | Chris Barnett | Moderate | -345 |
| It's been a weird month for Big Ben. He's had fights moved around, scrapped, and scrapped again. He's getting journeyman Chris Barnett in a very winable spot. If the helter skelter schedule doesn't affect him he should have a solid night. It'd be nice to see a KO. | ||||
| Josh Culibao | 9100 | Nuerdanbieke Shayilan | Moderate | -245 |
| After two very tough fights Culibao gets evenly matched with a Chinese prospect (if you recall from a few weeks ago, they aren't having great luck in the UFC). I don't want to lay chalk on Culibao but he comes to fight and has an opponent he can certainly shine against. | ||||
| Mid-Range | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Justin Tafa | 9000 | Jared Vanderaa | Moderate | -180 |
| Tafa is still green despite four UFC bouts. He showed very well in a loss to Carlos Felipe. Vanderaa probably can't hang with another performance like that, assuming Tafa doesn't run into a haymaker. | ||||
| David Dvorak | 8800 | Juancamilo Ronderos | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A |
| Dvorak is a solid technician in the Euro mold. He's fighting a last minute replacement so I do wonder if that throws him off any. Not that he loses, just that he may need a minute to get going. It's a solid floor and maybe less ceiling. | ||||
| Jack Hermansson | 8900 | Edmen Shahbazyan | Somewhat-Risky | -145 |
| Edmen apparently wants to get back in with a grappler and show it's not an issue for him. Hermansson will certainly give him that test. The Joker is very dangerous on the mat with slick subs and heavy GnP. | ||||
| Felicia Spencer | 8700 | Norma Dumont | Somewhat-Risky | -170 |
| Spencer has destroyed the lower fighters in the division and gotten walked on by two legends. Dumont is somewhere in between. My gut says she hangs tough long enough for Dumont to run out of gas and then takes advantage with her strength and BJJ. | ||||
| Bill Algeo | 8500 | Ricardo Ramos | Risky | -120 |
| It's weird seeing Algeo as this big of a favorite. He's a wiley vet and well-rounded which should give him the edge. He also has some defensive flaws a flashy guy like Ramos could exploit. | ||||
| Damir Hadzovic | 8400 | Yancy Medeiros | Risky | -130 |
| This should be a kickboxing match and Hadzovic has shined in those spots where he doesn't have to worry about grappling. Medeiros tends to get into wars and is worse for wear from them. | ||||
| Pay-Downs | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 7300 | Jack Hermansson | Somewhat-Risky | +135 |
| If he can stay off the mat Edmen has a very beatable ranked opponent in front of him. Assuming his camp has been all about defensive wrestling I like his chances to capitolize. The ceiling is huge at the price with how dangerous he is on the feet. | ||||
| Norma Dumont | 7500 | Felicia Spencer | Somewhat-Risky | +160 |
| Dumont can certainly out-work the very robotic Spencer in the striking. She'll need to do it for 15 minutes without gassing or slipping up. | ||||
| Carla Esparza | 7600 | Yan Xiaonan | Somewhat-Risky | +110 |
| The path is the same as always for Carla: win two rounds with grappling and surive when her opponent boxes her up. Yan has struggled with takedown in spots. Carla has struggled to surive on the feet in spots. We'll see who hides their flaw better. | ||||
| Rafael Alves | 6700 | Damir Ismagulov | Risky | +435 |
| Alves has a lot to prove after missing weight in his prior fight. He's moved up to 155 and taken a fight no one wants. He's still a dangerous fighter and will be looking to show he deserves his spot in the promotion. | ||||
| Jared Vanderaa | 7200 | Justin Tafa | Risky | +168 |
| Vanderaa could get the sloppiest of takedowns and that would be all he needs to make Tafa a fish out of water. It doesn't take much ground and pound to get a stoppage at heavyweight, either. | ||||
| Ricardo Ramos | 7700 | Bill Algeo | Risky | +100 |
| We don't know which version of Ramos shows up Saturday. The slick finisher or the lost showboat. Algeo leaves opening so it's possible we get the former. | ||||
| Yancy Medeiros | 7800 | Damir Hadzovic | Risky | +110 |
| Medeiros only real path is to somehow get a hold of Hadzovic and submit him. He doesn't typically look to grapple unless it's a result of Chaos. | ||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Bruno Silva | $9,300 |
| Justin Tafa | $9,000 | |
Mid Tier | Rob Font | $8,300 |
| David Dvorak | $8,800 | |
| Value Tier | Edmen Shahbazyan | $7,300 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
| Top Tier | Bruno Silva | $22 |
Mid Tier | Rob Font | $18 |
| David Dvorak | $18 | |
Value Tier | Norma Dumont | $11 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | $11 | |
Favorite Bets: Font -110, Shahbazyan +135
Favorite Props: Hadzovic ITD +255
Live Dogs: Shahbazyan, Garbrandt, Esparza, Ramos, Vanderaa, Dumont
Stats & Picks:
| Rob Font | vs | Cody Garbrandt |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 18-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (83%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -110 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Yan Xiaonan | vs | Carla Esparza |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 13-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-6-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (18%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Justin Tafa | vs | Jared Vanderaa |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 4-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-5-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (64%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -180 | Vegas Odds | +168 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Felicia Spencer | vs | Norma Dumont |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 5-1-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | |
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| David Dvorak | vs | Juancamilo Ronderos |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record: 19-3-0 | Record | Record: 20-3-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (37%) | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 1/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Jack Hermansson | vs | Edmen Shahbazyan |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 21-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (52%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (82%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) |
| -145 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Ricardo Ramos | vs | Bill Algeo |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (21%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (21%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Ben Rothwell | vs | Chris Barnett |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 38-13-0 | Record | Record: 21-6-0 |
| 28 KO/TKO (74%) | Knockouts | 16 KO/TKO (76%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (16%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -345 | Vegas Odds | +315 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Court McGee | vs | Claudio Silva |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 20-10-0 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (26%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (14%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (26%) | Subs | |
| -112 | Vegas Odds | +102 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Bruno Silva | vs | Victor Rodriguez |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 11-5-2 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (100%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -370 | Vegas Odds | +330 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Josh Culibao | vs | Nuerdanbieke Shayilan |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 8-1-1 | Record | Record: 19-6-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (63%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (47%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -245 | Vegas Odds | +225 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Yancy Medeiros | vs | Damir Hadzovic |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 15-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (53%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (54%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Rafael Alves | vs | Damir Ismagulov |
| $6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
| Record: 19-9-0 | Record | Record: 22-1-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (37%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (55%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (37%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
| +435 | Vegas Odds | -570 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |