We get a rare treat for a Fight Night card with a very high level main event with title implications as Cory Sandhagen faces the returning TJ Dillashaw. There’s no love lost between the two former training partners it seems with both claiming they would get the better of their opponent in the gym. We also have some fights that promise to be action packed with major GPP potential further down the card. You’ll have to get them exactly right if you want to be at the top of big contests.
| Main Event | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Cory Sandhagen vs TJ Dillashaw | 8800/7400 | - | Stackability: Safe | -190/ +160 |
| The trouble here is projecting what version of Dillashaw comes back to the UFC. He’s 35, presumably without his special vitamins, and 2.5 years of ring rust. We’ve seen recently that the rust doesn’t matter as much at the elite level. The EPO is my biggest concern. Dillashaw was a machine at 135 thanks to being in peak shape and deep endurance (and despite not having an iron chin, he was durable against the best). How much of that will be eroded against Sandhagen who will hit you bell to bell, is extremely durable, and uses endurance as a weapon. I’m betting that’s all too much for the juice-less former champ and the stepping stone for Sandhagen to a title shot. Dillashaw’s path would be a wrestling heavy gameplan but that isn’t who he was for most of his UFC time. It is stackable in cash, as most Sandhagen fights are. | ||||
| Expensive | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Julio Arce | 9100 | Andre Ewell | Safe | -215 |
| Arce is a smooth striker and likely mitigates Ewell one advantage of a big reach. That makes him a pretty solid bet to win but a more modest fantasy ceiling. Arce does have some BJJ in his back pocket if the fight somehow hit the mat. | ||||
| Adrian Yanez | 9000 | Randy Costa | Somewhat-Safe | -230 |
| I foresee Yanez picking Costa apart with his quick hands. I love Costa for his aggression but he’s still on the raw side. Yanez is young as well but the technique is there. You just have to stomach the risk that Costa finds an opening thanks to pressure. | ||||
| Kyler Phillips | 9200 | Raulian Paiva | Moderate | #N/A |
| There’s no doubt Phillips is uber talented. He’s stumbled along the way in his career, however. Paiva is no pushover and willing to take the fight anywhere it goes. It’s a tall order to score big against him, in my opinion. | ||||
| Sijara Eubanks | 9300 | Elise Reed | Moderate | -360 |
| Sarge is set up nicely in this spot. She's fighting a late replacement from a weight class down who can't grapple. When Sarge has the gas to commit to grappling she's dominant on top. She looked in good shape at the weigh ins, so that's the likely outcome. | ||||
| Mid-Range | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Punahele Soriano | 8200 | Brendan Allen | Moderate | #N/A |
| Soriano is a tank. He throws everything with bad intentions. Allen is also a warrior but he takes too much damage on the feet. There is the risk that Allen gets it to the mat where he has an extremely effective submission game. Soriano is likely looking to avoid that. | ||||
| Darrick Minner | 8600 | Darren Elkins | Moderate | -158 |
| This is some beautiful matchmaking. Minner comes out on fire and saves no gas for the late rounds. Elkins eats early damage and finds ways to climb back into fights. My gut feel is that Minner has been improving the gas tank since making the UFC and being able to train. I also see Elkins having a harder and harder time weathering storms. You don’t hold up at the elite level fighting like that. I’m going to keep taking shots that Elkins cliff is close at hand. | ||||
| Jordan Williams | 8700 | Mickey Gall | Somewhat-Risky | -174 |
| Williams has been able to cut weight for the first time due to diabetes. He looked good on the scales and has the endurance to make it past Gall’s very limited endurance. He just has to make sure Gall doesn’t get his back early. | ||||
| Ian Heinisch | 8500 | Nassourdine Imavov | Somewhat-Risky | -168 |
| Heinish is rarely a good DK play. He has the occasional KO or sub but is more of a point fighter. Hard to hit value that way. | ||||
| Miranda Maverick | 8400 | Maycee Barber | Moderate | -148 |
| Maverick will have to show her striking defense is up to par here. Barber is a very good kickboxer. She is not a good grappler, though. Maverick is strong and willing to land takedowns if they’re there. If she pulls off the win it’s a potentially big score. | ||||
| Hannah Goldy | 8300 | Diana Belbita | Risky | -108 |
| I’m trying my best not to hype Goldy solely due to how terrible Belbita is. It’s been hard since I’ve seen nothing to like from Belbita in the Octagon despite fighting two crappy fighters. Her path to the optimal is heavy grappling and a submission. She’s strong enough to do it. | ||||
| Pay-Downs | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Raulian Paiva | 7000 | Kyler Phillips | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A |
| Paiva is a nice value in this spot. He’s facing a very risky opponent but the line is off. Paiva may be the better striker and he works any time he’s taken down, despite giving them up in most fights. He’s a gamer. | ||||
| Brendan Allen | 8000 | Punahele Soriano | Somewhat-Risky | -104 |
| Allen is a dangerous finisher. Especially on the mat. We haven’t seen Soriano tested in the grappling by anyone of his caliber. If he finds a takedown he’s a very live dog. | ||||
| Randy Costa | 7200 | Adrian Yanez | Somewhat-Risky | 190 |
| Costa isn't shy about his game plan. He's coming for your head right out of the gate. That's been a great strategy against lower level opponents. Yanez is a huge jump, though. That might only encourage Costa to go out on his shield. | ||||
| Maycee Barber | 7800 | Miranda Maverick | Risky | 126 |
| After dropping two straight fights Barber needs a win in a big way. She was positioning herself for a title run. Now she’s staring down a near must-win. Her striking is a cut above most and she’s plenty aggressive. Her big hole is grappling. Maybe the move to a better camp has helped there. Maverick is also fairly green. | ||||
| Mickey Gall | 7500 | Jordan Williams | Risky | 146 |
| Gall puts it on the line despite being outclassed. You have to give him that. He’s even found a way to submit a few folks in the UFC, not that they were quality names. If he can get on someone’s back he’s a problem. He doesn’t have the wrestling to consistently do it or the endurance to consistently attempt it. | ||||
| Darren Elkins | 7600 | Darrick Minner | Risky | 134 |
| Elkins is still pulling his come back from the dead routine despite showing the wear from it more and more. That’s going to stop at some point but there’s winnable fights for someone with that kind of heart. | ||||
| Diana Belbita | 7900 | Hannah Goldy | Risky | -108 |
| Belbita should have never made the UFC. She was a warm body and they’re getting whatever mileage they can from her. It’s possible she makes improvements and surprises us, if somewhat unlikely. Goldy is pretty low level in her own right. | ||||
| Elise Reed | 6900 | Sijara Eubanks | Risky | 290 |
| Reed has long odds for good reason. She's fighting up a weight and already has suspect grappling. If she somehow stays upright and can last long enough for Eubanks to gas she has the slimmest of shots. | ||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Adrian Yanez | $9,000 |
| Sijara Eubanks | $9,300 | |
Mid Tier | Punahele Soriano | $8,200 |
| Darrick Minner | $8,600 | |
| Value Tier | Raulian Paiva | $7,000 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Adrian Yanez | $20 |
| Sijara Eubanks | $23 | |
Mid Tier | Punahele Soriano | $15 |
| Hannah Goldy | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Raulian Paiva | $8 |
Favorite Bets: Arce -215, Goldy -108
Favorite Props: Yanez/Costa UNDER 2.5 -200, Soriano ITD +130 or Allen ITD +175
Live Dogs: Dillashaw, Paiva, Allen, Costa, Barber, Elkins, Gall
Stats & Picks:
| Cory Sandhagen | vs | TJ Dillashaw |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (21%) | Subs | |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Darren Elkins | vs | Darrick Minner |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 26-9-0 | Record | Record: 26-11-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (15%) |
| 134 | Vegas Odds | -158 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Miranda Maverick | vs | Maycee Barber |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (4%) | |
| Subs | 22 SUBMISSIONS (85%) | |
| -148 | Vegas Odds | 126 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Adrian Yanez | vs | Randy Costa |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (11%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (63%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
| -230 | Vegas Odds | 190 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Punahele Soriano | vs | Brendan Allen |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
| Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (100%) | |
| Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | -104 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | vs | Ian Heinisch |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (63%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (31%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (56%) |
| 142 | Vegas Odds | -168 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Mickey Gall | vs | Jordan Williams |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 6-3-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 (1 NC) |
| Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (36%) | |
| Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | |
| 146 | Vegas Odds | -174 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Julio Arce | vs | Andre Ewell |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-7-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (83%) | Subs | |
| -215 | Vegas Odds | 180 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Sijara Eubanks | vs | Elise Reed |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 7-6-0 | Record | Record: 4-0-0 |
| Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (41%) | |
| Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | |
| -360 | Vegas Odds | 290 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Diana Belbita | vs | Hannah Goldy |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 13-6-0 | Record | Record: 5-1-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -108 | Vegas Odds | -108 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |