The UFC heads back to Texas for UFC 265. That means fans in stands and questionable judging. With the larger standard octagon that means judges are likely getting involved more than we've been accustomed to in Vegas. The fighters are less glitzy than most PPVs but the fights are solid.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane | 6800/9400 | - | Stackability: Safe | #N/A | #N/A |
| Regardless of the validity of this interim belt, it's a fight that has to happen. Lewis is the ultimate measuring stick for HW patience and durability. Gane seems like a good bet to pass those tests but we still need to see it. Expect four or five rounds of Gane dominating safely from distance and a scare or two when Lewis finally pounces. That makes Lewis all but a leverage play for mass lineup builders. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Rafael Fiziev | 9300 | Bobby Green | Somewhat-Safe | #N/A | #N/A |
| If Fiziev can keep things standing he’s likely going to outland Green and in impressive fashion. Bobby is slick but he’s his own worst enemy and gets into ill-advised exchanges. Fiziev’s game runs through his wicked low kicks. That type of fighting style opens up the KO, as well. | |||||
| Alonzo Menifield | 9200 | Ed Herman | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
| Zo is a one trick pony for the most part. Either his power is too much and he overwhelms you early or he runs out of gas and it gets sloppy. Ed Herman has shown both in recent fights. Herman is very hittable but is a willy vet who’s survived spots like this before. I worry the ownership on Menifield makes him a donkey play. | |||||
| Johnny Munoz | 9100 | Jamey Simmons | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
| Munoz showed ability in his debut loss but also had some questionable moments. This price tag is coming from a perceived weaker opponent. That’s a dangerous spot to play traditionally. There’s upside but Munoz could also let Simmons into the fight more than this price indicates. | |||||
| Manel Kape | 9000 | Ode Osbourne | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
| We haven’t seen much to like about Kape in his two UFC fights, both losses. Those were against very solid competition. Osbourne is not that level, yet. With how easy Boom Kelleher tore through Ode I half expect Kape to show that dangerous power we saw in Rizin. Kape did miss weight. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Drako Rodriguez | 8400 | Vince Morales | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
| Drako got flash KO’d in his UFC debut when he got a little too comfortable in the cage. He hopefully learned a lesson and stays focussed this fight. Morales is a poor striker who doesn’t seem interested in leaning on his grappling. Drako is aggressive and dangerous against low level fighters. | |||||
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 8300 | Jessica Penne | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| We get a fighter with talent but questionable motivation in KK against a sloppy but gritty Jessica Penne. If Karolina is interested in continuing her career she should take Penne apart on the feet. KK has historically been very tough to takedown. That takes away Penne’s only real path. Penne also blocks punches with her face. Vintage Karolina will unload the kickboxing clip. | |||||
| Miles Johns | 8900 | Anderson Dos Santos | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Johns is the much better striker, if somewhat inactive. He needs to be, with a suspect gas tank. As long as he keeps his neck safe he’ll win two of three rounds with an outside chance to flash some power on the very hittable Dos Santos. | |||||
| Vicente Luque | 8500 | Michael Chiesa | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| This is a pretty simple breakdown. Either at some point Luque can stuff takedowns for a long enough stretch to land his signature power on Chiesa’s shaky striking or he gets wet blanketed by Maverick. Luque’s willing to do whatever it takes to get a win so it’s not a terrible role of the dice. | |||||
| Casey Kenney | 8200 | Song Yadong | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Kenney figured out a few fights back that being better conditioned and pushing a relentless pace is a great strategy in MMA. That’s a little harder to pull off against Yadong but Kenney has the will to do it. He also has wrestling in his back pocket and that’s been the kryptonite for Chinese prospects lately. | |||||
| Melissa Gatto | 8800 | Victoria Leonardo | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Gatto has been inactive for a few years due to injuries, the pandemic, etc. She’s only had 8 pro fights at very low levels. Yet, she’s still coming in as a hefty favorite. A win over Karol Rosa in her last fight is some of that. She could also have taken leaps in the gym we just haven’t seen yet. It’s impossible to know until we see her in action. I am interested in her with a BJJ background and Leonardo needing to grapple to have success. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Michael Chiesa | 7700 | Vicente Luque | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Chiesa is sure to be a very popular underdog. If he wins it's likely behind effective repeat grappling. Luque is very dangerous on the feet but the trade off can be grappling liabilities. | |||||
| Ed Herman | 7000 | Alonzo Menifield | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Short Fuse is still hanging onto a UFC roster spot. He's far from the fighter he was but still has a few tricks. Namely occasional wrestling and patience. He gets hit far too much but seems to have a head full of rocks. If he can get Menifield to gas he has a shot. | |||||
| Victoria Leonardo | 7400 | Melissa Gatto | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Playing Leonardo is a bet that the lack of fights on Gatto's part has hindered her development. To beat UFC opponents Leonardo will have to flat out-work them. She's a questionable talent. | |||||
| Anderson Dos Santos | 7300 | Miles Johns | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Dos Santos doesn't shy away from a brawl. Unfortunately, Johns wants nothing to do with that style of fight. Anderson's most likely path is catching hold of a submission during a scramble. The stocky Johns is tough to pull that on. | |||||
| Vince Morales | 7800 | Drako Rodriguez | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Maybe Drako is a fraud who beat up regional opponents. Morales is the gritty generalist that would confirm that with a win. | |||||
| Bobby Green | 6900 | Rafael Fiziev | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Bobby Green is entertaining, I'll give him that. He's more interested in showing his opponent up than winning minutes and the judges seem to hate him. His major advantage here is sneaky wrestling that he forgets about occasionally. We haven't seen Fiziev put on his back for extended periods yet. | |||||
| Jamey Simmons | 7100 | Johnny Munoz | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Simmons went up a weight class and fought world-class kickboxer Giga Chikadze in his debut loss. Back at his natural weight class and against a reasonable opponent he may look vastly different. | |||||
Core Plays:
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Ciryl Gane | $9,400 |
| Rafael Fiziev | $9,300 | |
Mid Tier | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | $8,300 |
| Casey Kenney | $8,200 | |
| Value Tier | Michael Chiesa | $7,700 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Ciryl Gane | $23 |
| Manel Kape | $20 | |
Mid Tier | Casey Kenney | $18 |
| Michael Chiesa | $15 | |
| Value Tier | Melissa Gatto | $14 |
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Fiziev -295, Chiesa -102, Kowalkiewicz -125
Favorite Props: Gabe/Lewis UNDER 4.5 -187
Live Dogs: Chiesa, Lewis, Herman, Munhoz, Leonardo, Morales
Stats & Picks:
| Derrick Lewis | vs | Ciryl Gane |
| $6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 25-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
| 20 KO/TKO (80%) | Knockouts | |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 8/10 |
| Jose Aldo | vs | Pedro Munhoz |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 29-7-0 | Record | |
| 17 KO/TKO (59%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (26%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (3%) | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Michael Chiesa | vs | Vicente Luque |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 18-4-0 | Record | Record: 20-7-1 |
| Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (55%) | |
| Subs | ||
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Tecia Torres | vs | Angela Hill |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 13-9-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (8%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Song Yadong | vs | Casey Kenney |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 16-5-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-3-1 |
| 6 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (13%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (19%) | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 5/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Bobby Green | vs | Rafael Fiziev |
| $6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 27-11-1 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Vince Morales | vs | Drako Rodriguez |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 9-5-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Alonzo Menifield | vs | Ed Herman |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | |
| 8 KO/TKO (80%) | Knockouts | |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | vs | Jessica Penne |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 12-6-0 | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (8%) | Knockouts | |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Manel Kape | vs | Ode Osbourne |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 (1 NC) |
| 9 KO/TKO (60%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (44%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Miles Johns | vs | Anderson Dos Santos |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 21-8-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (24%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Victoria Leonardo | vs | Melissa Gatto |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 8-4-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-2 |
| 1 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Johnny Munoz | vs | Jamey Simmons |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (57%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (60%) | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |