The UFC returns from a week off with a solid, if less than spectacular card. There are some fun young fighters that could show out. The big favorites are no huge lock to clean up so feel free to differentiate throughout.
Playbook:
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jared Cannonier vs Kelvin Gastelum | 8700/7500 | - | Stackability: Safe | #N/A | #N/A |
This fight has big title implications. Both have lost to Robert Whitaker but are the next in line after him. Cannonier is a very violent individual but leaves openings. Gastelum is a tough dude and has more knockdowns than almost anyone. It's a tough stack given the chance of a KO for either man. I lean Cannonier's way given how recently Gastelum seemed shot. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Mark Madsen | 9100 | Clay Guida | Somewhat-Safe | #N/A | #N/A |
As an Olympic wrestler it's no secret what Madsen is aiming to do. Spam grappling until you break. He gassed big in his last fight but did hold on for the win. Guida isn't this level of wrestler. Madsen has huge takedown potential. | |||||
Brian Kelleher | 9000 | Domingo Pilarte | Somewhat-Safe | #N/A | #N/A |
Boom is a journeyman but he's a clear level above Pilarte. He's got some power and submission outs, as well. A finish is well within his outcomes. | |||||
William Knight | 9400 | Fabio Cherant | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
Knight has a mediocre skill set but makes up for it with grit. He's strong and utilizes his strength in the grappling. He swings big, as well. The range of outcomes is wider here correcting for talent. | |||||
Chase Sherman | 9200 | Parker Porter | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
The Vanilla Gorilla is a solid athlete at HW and stays busy. Porter is below average and tends to get into fire fights. That's where Sherman can shine. In the HW division things get sloppy, though. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Roosevelt Roberts | 8400 | Ignacio Bahamondes | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
Volume and a striking/grappling mix is what this play is all about. He's stumbled a bit in his UFC career lately but this is a good spot to get back on track. He's got a shot to return value on volume or a submission. | |||||
Alexandre Pantoja | 8900 | Brandon Royval | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Pantoja has been fighting the who's who of the division for forever now. Royval pushes the pace like no one else but that opens him up to big risks. Pantoja can hang with anyone and is plenty dangerous. Especially if he gets on your back. | |||||
Bea Malecki | 8600 | Josiane Nunes | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Malecki utilizes her reach and kick boxing well enough to beat the lower level fighters in women's MMA. | |||||
Ramiz Brahimaj | 8500 | Sasha Palatnikov | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Brahimaj got into a war with Max Griffin and got the worst of it. His ear exploded and the fight was stopped. He's got some upside but is drawing a tough opponent in Roberts. | |||||
Luis Saldana | 8300 | Austin Lingo | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Saldana is game for a brawl. He managed to beat Jordan Griffin despite getting out grappled. This is a good fight between two dudes that will bring it. Lingo is a bit slow but packs a punch. You want both sides of this one. | |||||
Vinc Pichel | 8200 | Austin Hubbard | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Brandon Royval | 7300 | Alexandre Pantoja | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
The unique pace that Royval pushes is so uncomfortable for most fighters. He's perfectly happy putting himself in danger and fishing for a way to reverse things. Pantoja is a tough draw and plenty dangerous but Royval makes his own odds better with his style. | |||||
Sasha Palatnikov | 7700 | Ramiz Brahimaj | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
We saw what Palatnikov does best in his UFC debut win but he bit off more than he could chew in his loss to Impa Kasanganay. This is a more appropriate opponent. He's a dangerous striker but still raw. | |||||
Austin Lingo | 7900 | Luis Saldana | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Lingo's lack of athleticism will ultimately be what holds him back. He's a good boxer with plus power until that happens. Saldana is game for a fun fight. This is a definite GPP target. | |||||
Parker Porter | 7000 | Chase Sherman | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Taking underdogs in sloppy heavyweight fights. Porter is certainly a sloppy heavyweight. He tends to win or lose by finish. | |||||
Clay Guida | 7100 | Mark Madsen | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Guida needs to survive the early going and win with cardio in the second half. Madsen gassed in his last fight but is also a former Olympian. | |||||
Josiane Nunes | 7600 | Bea Malecki | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Maybe Nunes can avoid getting stuck at range and get work done from the inside or grapple. If she got Malecki to the mat the taller woman could be in trouble. |
Core Plays:
Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Mark Madsen | $9,100 |
Brian Kelleher | $9,000 | |
Mid Tier | Alexandre Pantoja | $8,900 |
Roosevelt Roberts | $8,400 | |
Value Tier | Sasha Palatnikov | $7,700 |
Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Mark Madsen | $20 |
Brian Kelleher | $21 | |
Mid Tier | Alexandre Pantoja | $19 |
Roosevelt Roberts | $18 | |
Value Tier | Parker Porter | $8 |
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Madsen - 175, Kelleher -175
Live Dogs: Royval, Palatnikov, Lingo, Gastelum, Porter, Nunes
Stats & Picks:
Jared Cannonier | vs | Kelvin Gastelum |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 13-5-0 | Record | |
9 KO/TKO (69%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (38%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Clay Guida | vs | Mark Madsen |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 36-17-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) | |
Subs | ||
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Parker Porter | vs | Chase Sherman |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 11-6-0 | Record | Record: 15-7-0 |
5 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 14 KO/TKO (93%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Trevin Jones | vs | |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 13-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (38%) | |
Subs | ||
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Vinc Pichel | vs | Austin Hubbard |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
8 KO/TKO (62%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (38%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 3/10 |
0 | ||
Alexandre Pantoja | vs | Brandon Royval |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 23-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
8 KO/TKO (35%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (25%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (35%) | Subs | |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Austin Lingo | vs | Luis Saldana |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 15-6-0 |
Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (60%) | |
Subs | ||
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Brian Kelleher | vs | Domingo Pilarte |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 22-12-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 (1 NC) |
8 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
10 SUBMISSIONS (45%) | Subs | |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Bea Malecki | vs | Josiane Nunes |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 4-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
1 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (86%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
William Knight | vs | Fabio Cherant |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
8 KO/TKO (89%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Roosevelt Roberts | vs | Ignacio Bahamondes |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 10-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
3 KO/TKO (30%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (73%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Sasha Palatnikov | vs | Ramiz Brahimaj |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 6-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
3 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |