The UFC returns from a week off with a solid, if less than spectacular card. There are some fun young fighters that could show out. The big favorites are no huge lock to clean up so feel free to differentiate throughout. 

Playbook:

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Jared Cannonier vs Kelvin Gastelum8700/7500-Stackability: Safe#N/A#N/A
This fight has big title implications. Both have lost to Robert Whitaker but are the next in line after him. Cannonier is a very violent individual but leaves openings. Gastelum is a tough dude and has more knockdowns than almost anyone. It's a tough stack given the chance of a KO for either man. I lean Cannonier's way given how recently Gastelum seemed shot.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Mark Madsen9100Clay GuidaSomewhat-Safe#N/A#N/A
As an Olympic wrestler it's no secret what Madsen is aiming to do. Spam grappling until you break. He gassed big in his last fight but did hold on for the win. Guida isn't this level of wrestler. Madsen has huge takedown potential.
Brian Kelleher9000Domingo PilarteSomewhat-Safe#N/A#N/A
Boom is a journeyman but he's a clear level above Pilarte. He's got some power and submission outs, as well. A finish is well within his outcomes.
William Knight9400Fabio CherantModerate#N/A#N/A
Knight has a mediocre skill set but makes up for it with grit. He's strong and utilizes his strength in the grappling. He swings big, as well. The range of outcomes is wider here correcting for talent.
Chase Sherman9200Parker PorterModerate#N/A#N/A
The Vanilla Gorilla is a solid athlete at HW and stays busy. Porter is below average and tends to get into fire fights. That's where Sherman can shine. In the HW division things get sloppy, though.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Roosevelt Roberts8400Ignacio BahamondesModerate#N/A#N/A
Volume and a striking/grappling mix is what this play is all about. He's stumbled a bit in his UFC career lately but this is a good spot to get back on track. He's got a shot to return value on volume or a submission.
Alexandre Pantoja8900Brandon RoyvalSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
Pantoja has been fighting the who's who of the division for forever now. Royval pushes the pace like no one else but that opens him up to big risks. Pantoja can hang with anyone and is plenty dangerous. Especially if he gets on your back.
Bea Malecki8600Josiane NunesSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
Malecki utilizes her reach and kick boxing well enough to beat the lower level fighters in women's MMA.
Ramiz Brahimaj8500Sasha PalatnikovSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
Brahimaj got into a war with Max Griffin and got the worst of it. His ear exploded and the fight was stopped. He's got some upside but is drawing a tough opponent in Roberts.
Luis Saldana8300Austin LingoRisky#N/A#N/A
Saldana is game for a brawl. He managed to beat Jordan Griffin despite getting out grappled. This is a good fight between two dudes that will bring it. Lingo is a bit slow but packs a punch. You want both sides of this one.
Vinc Pichel8200Austin HubbardRisky#N/A#N/A
 
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Brandon Royval7300Alexandre PantojaSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
The unique pace that Royval pushes is so uncomfortable for most fighters. He's perfectly happy putting himself in danger and fishing for a way to reverse things. Pantoja is a tough draw and plenty dangerous but Royval makes his own odds better with his style.
Sasha Palatnikov7700Ramiz BrahimajSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
We saw what Palatnikov does best in his UFC debut win but he bit off more than he could chew in his loss to Impa Kasanganay. This is a more appropriate opponent. He's a dangerous striker but still raw.
Austin Lingo7900Luis SaldanaSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
Lingo's lack of athleticism will ultimately be what holds him back. He's a good boxer with plus power until that happens. Saldana is game for a fun fight. This is a definite GPP target.
Parker Porter7000Chase ShermanRisky#N/A#N/A
Taking underdogs in sloppy heavyweight fights. Porter is certainly a sloppy heavyweight. He tends to win or lose by finish.
Clay Guida7100Mark MadsenRisky#N/A#N/A
Guida needs to survive the early going and win with cardio in the second half. Madsen gassed in his last fight but is also a former Olympian.
Josiane Nunes7600Bea MaleckiRisky#N/A#N/A
Maybe Nunes can avoid getting stuck at range and get work done from the inside or grapple. If she got Malecki to the mat the taller woman could be in trouble.

Core Plays:

Draftkings Core Plays

Top Tier

Mark Madsen$9,100
Brian Kelleher$9,000

Mid Tier

Alexandre Pantoja$8,900
Roosevelt Roberts$8,400
Value TierSasha Palatnikov$7,700
   
   
Fanduel Core Plays

Top Tier

Mark Madsen$20
Brian Kelleher$21

Mid Tier

Alexandre Pantoja$19
Roosevelt Roberts$18
Value TierParker Porter$8


Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Madsen - 175, Kelleher -175

Live Dogs: Royval, Palatnikov, Lingo, Gastelum, Porter, Nunes 
 

Stats & Picks: 

Jared CannoniervsKelvin Gastelum
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 13-5-0Record

Record: 17-7-0 (1 NC)

9 KO/TKO (69%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (38%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (15%)Subs

4 SUBMISSIONS (25%)

#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Clay GuidavsMark Madsen
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 36-17-0RecordRecord: 10-0-0
 Knockouts3 KO/TKO (30%)
 Subs

3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)

#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
3/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Parker PortervsChase Sherman
$7,000DFS Salary$9,200
Record: 11-6-0RecordRecord: 15-7-0
5 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts14 KO/TKO (93%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Trevin Jonesvs

Saidyokub Kakhramonov

$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 13-6-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 8-2-0
 Knockouts3 KO/TKO (38%)
 Subs

3 SUBMISSIONS (38%)

#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Vinc PichelvsAustin Hubbard
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 13-2-0RecordRecord: 13-5-0
8 KO/TKO (62%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (38%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs

2 SUBMISSIONS (15%)

#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
4/10Lineup Pool23/10
 0 
Alexandre PantojavsBrandon Royval
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 23-5-0RecordRecord: 12-5-0
8 KO/TKO (35%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (25%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (35%)Subs

8 SUBMISSIONS (67%)

#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
6/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Austin LingovsLuis Saldana
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 8-1-0RecordRecord: 15-6-0
 Knockouts9 KO/TKO (60%)
 Subs

5 SUBMISSIONS (33%)

#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Brian KellehervsDomingo Pilarte
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 22-12-0RecordRecord: 8-2-0 (1 NC)
8 KO/TKO (36%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (25%)
10 SUBMISSIONS (45%)Subs

4 SUBMISSIONS (50%)

#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
7/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Bea MaleckivsJosiane Nunes
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 4-0-0RecordRecord: 7-1-0
1 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (86%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
4/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
William KnightvsFabio Cherant
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 9-2-0RecordRecord: 7-2-0
8 KO/TKO (89%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs

5 SUBMISSIONS (71%)

#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Roosevelt RobertsvsIgnacio Bahamondes
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 10-2-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 11-4-0
3 KO/TKO (30%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (73%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Sasha PalatnikovvsRamiz Brahimaj
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 6-3-0RecordRecord: 8-3-0
3 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs

8 SUBMISSIONS (100%)

#N/AVegas Odds#N/A
6/10Lineup Pool3/10