MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Vegas 36

Published: Sep 04, 2021

With the difficulties for fighters getting visas in the UK the UFC was forced to relocate this card back to Vegas some time ago. You’ll notice a very heavy British flair. We’re getting some of the best UK products in action in mostly decent tests. I’d expect them to go 4-2 in some order. Dodging the losses will be the key. Many like Tom Aspinall and Paddy Pimblett can finish opponents early but have yet to show they can dig deep in late rounds. We’ll find out who has the minerals Saturday afternoon. Note the 1:30 PM ET start to accommodate the viewers across the pond.

Playbook:

Main Event
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Derek Brunson vs Darren Till	7400/8800	-	Stackability: Safe	+155/ -180	+300/+110
I admittedly have a blindspot for Till’s skill level. I don’t like his low-volume, non-grappling, approach. It’s hard to count on that profile to win consistently. We see occasional glimpses of a good fighter but ultimately he just doesn’t pull the trigger enough. Brunson can be chinny but those KO’s and shaky moments have come against the elite of the 185 lb division. His bread and butter is spam wrestling. Till has been taken down in plenty of fights and depended on a strength advantage down at 170. Now he’s finally facing a natural 185er. I’ll take the wrestler to bank rounds and accept the risk that a late KO could happen. Not stacking this in cash.

Expensive
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Jack Shore	9100	Liudvik Sholinian	Somewhat-Safe	-590	-105
Shore is a very consistent grappler, especially for a Welshman. He didn’t shine quite as brightly in a split decision win over Hunter Azure but Azure was a solid step up. The striking was also his struggle. It’s encouraging that he still wrestled heavily in a tight fight. Sholinian can also scramble enough to help Shore rack up big TD numbers.
Tom Aspinall	9000	Serghei Spivac	Moderate	-250	-150
This is a step up for Aspinall. He’s moped the deck with his early UFC opponents and managed to squeeze a hail mary RNC onto Andrei Arlovski’s neck as the fight started to slip away. Spivac doesn’t want to fight in your yard. He’ll just stay boring and make you overcome his wrestling when he’s at his best. This is a spot prospects tend to stumble. Aspinall’s blend of athleticism and aggression is attractive for DFS but don’t go overweight here.
Charles Jourdain	8900	Julian Erosa	Moderate	-180	-105
Jourdain is going to be a good fighter when he figures out that flashy KOs have to be a secondary concern at this level. He’s pulled multiple stunts in the UFC because he’s more worried about landing flying knees for highlight reels. Erosa is a scraper but that said, he gets hit too easily and doesn’t have the strongest chin. If Jourdain stays focussed the KO will come\

Mid-Range
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Modestas Bukauskas	8500	Khalil Rountree Jr.	Moderate	-155	+120
We occasionally get surprised by Rountree but he’s generally a safe fade. He’s toyed with retirement and tends to look lost if he can’t drop opponents early. That is a risk for Bukauskas, who gets hit a bit more than you like to see. Still, he’s a tough guy and has a size/reach advantage. Barring one of those rare surprises, Buk will take over and grind him down. A finish could also be in the cards if Rountree quits in there.
Alex Morono	8700	David Zawada	Somewhat-Risky	-130	+275
Morono has one gear, full-speed forward. Not that he’s particularly fast for all that. He relies on spamming offense to cover up some major flaws in his defense. Zawada is a dangerous opponent to use that strategy against as he packs some power and BJJ. If he fails to win with a finish he’s in trouble, though. Morono isn’t a safe bet these days but has volume upside.
Jonathan Martinez	8600	Marcelo Rojo	Somewhat-Risky	-165	+180
This fight is an absolute GPP target. Rojo goes hard until he’s out. Martinez has been in plenty of bangers himself. We saw him wilt against the unorthodox Davey Grant last fight. That’s a concern against the gritty Rojo. Martinez kicks are lethal if he finds the range, however.
Paddy Pimblett	8300	Luigi Vendramini	Somewhat-Risky	-155	+140
Paddy is going to be a big fade for us at some point in the UFC. His brashness leads to him being very overrated. As has been the case, he’s selected an opponent carefully. Luigi is tough in a general way but not a huge hurdle in a debut. Paddy’s game is also based on getting opponents to the ground for subs or GnP.
Molly McCann	8000	Ji Yeon Kim	Risky	-105	+550
Meatball Molly has been a trainwreck most fights in the UFC. She’s all grit and aggression, with no defense. That’s a problem against most modern women. Kim is a one-dimensional striking relic, however. She also gets taken down far too easily. That’s a big plus for the stronger Brit. Molly will have to overcome a serious reach disadvantage but that is mitigated entirely if Kim spends the fight on the mat.
Ji Yeon Kim	8200	Molly McCann	Risky	-115	+500
If Kim does manage to fend off most of McCann’s takedowns then she’ll keep her at the end her punches and make minced meat out of Meatball. We’ve seen McCann bloodied badly in there before.

Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
David Zawada	7500	Alex Morono	Somewhat-Risky	+110	+330
Zawada’s paths to winning are all finishes in a fight that could be sloppily high-paced. Morono has to stay on the attack or he gets in trouble. It’s going to be an ugly fight so the dog is always worth a stab.
Marcelo Rojo	7600	Jonathan Martinez	Somewhat-Risky	+145	+350
Rojo will definitely fight for your money. He’s going to look better back down at his own weight class after a gritty late notice loss to Charles Jourdain up at 145. We saw Martinez break against Davey Grant in his last fight and get KO’d. That’s the first time it’s happened so we shouldn’t count on it but do recognize it’s a path for Rojo.
Dalcha Lungiambula	7800	Marc-Andre Barriault	Somewhat-Risky	+145	+330
Dalcha’s only way to winning and value on DK is to land one of his powerful hooks early. MAB is pretty durable but when you swing as hard as Dalcha does it only takes one.
Luigi Vendramini	7900	Paddy Pimblett	Risky	+135	+300
If you want to fade the newcomer Pimblett, I don’t blame you. He’s fought little elite competition and struggled the few times he’s stepped up. Luigi is a tough cat and will give Paddy a bit of a test.
Serghei Spivac	7200	Tom Aspinall	Risky	+200	+400
Spivac would need to out grapple Aspinall until he tired. I don’t think Spivac can hit enough takedowns in a decision win to be a huge value so it would have to come with a late submission. We haven’t seen Aspinall deep in any fight, yet.
Julian Erosa	7300	Charles Jourdain	Risky	+155	+350
Erosa is too tough for his own good. That gets him KO’d spectacularly sometimes. Jourdain will certainly aim to do that. Erosa finds a way to beat the better man sometimes, however. His submission game would certainly be handy if he can take Jourdain down.
Khalil Rountree Jr.	7700	Modestas Bukauskas	Risky	+135	+225
Rountree looks to be in good shape. He usually does, though, and still fades as the fight goes most nights. He’s got the power and precision to land an early KO, however long of a shot that is.

Core Plays:

Draftkings Core Plays
Top Tier	Jack Shore	$9,100
Top Tier	Tom Aspinall	$9,000
Mid Tier	Modestas Bukauskas	$8,500
Mid Tier	Derek Brunson	$7,400
Value Tier	David Zawada	$7,500


Fanduel Core Plays
Top Tier	Jack Shore	$23
Top Tier	Charles Jourdain	$20
Mid Tier	Derek Brunson	$15
Mid Tier	Modestas Bukauskas	$17
Value Tier	Molly McCann	$15

Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Brunson +155, Bukauskas -155, McCann -105

Favorite Props: Zawada ITD +330

Live Dogs: Brunson, Zawada , Rojo, Spivac, Erosa, Vendramini

Stats & Picks: