The UFC returns from a week off with a card bringing big volume, if not big names. We’re scheduled for fourteen fights so don’t feel the need to be overly contrarian. Though the mid-range is likely to produce a low-owned and unexpected smash with the way the pricing shook out this week. The biggest decision is which side of the Rongzhu-Jenkins fight to use. Jenkins is the likely chalk but a big underdog.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann | 9100/7100 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -170/ +150 | +100/+215 |
| Spann seems like a tailor-made victim of Anthony Smith’s. He’s the much more dangerous striker and could very well unload to the point of exhaustion. We’ve also seen him struggle when he hits that wall. For all that, I’m never going to pay this price tag on Smith. His lack of defense is an enormous liability and you can’t blindly count on him weathering life altering beatings endlessly. I’m on the Spann side in GPPs and cash. Stack it if you must. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 9600 | Christos Giagos | Safe | #N/A | #N/A |
| Tsarukyan just does everything Giagos does better. He’s sharp on the feet, gritty in the wrestling, and his output jas been increasing lately. This could be a career performance if/when Giagos gasses out the way he tends to. | |||||
| Montel Jackson | 9500 | JP Buys | Somewhat-Safe | -650 | -165 |
| After hitting the speed bump known as Brett Johns, Jackson took a step down in competition and is back to dominating those at his experience level. Buys should get more of the same. Montel is long, strong, and dangerous everywhere. We just saw Buys KO’d by Bruno Silva down a weight class. What’s he going to look like against Jackson? | |||||
| Erin Blanchfield | 9400 | Sarah Alpar | Somewhat-Safe | -380 | +180 |
| This is a big price for someone debuting. That tends to be a spot to avoid. Blanchfield has been fighting solid competition in Invicta, however. Those spots were closer fights so proceed with caution. She is capable of finishes, though. That’s rare for the division. Alpar also had her face rearranged in her UFC debut to Jess Rose-Clark. | |||||
| Tony Gravely | 9200 | Nate Maness | Moderate | -220 | +200 |
| Gravely uses his wrestling as a weapon as well as anyone. If you can’t match with cardio you’re in trouble. Maness has pulled two rabbits out of his hat in the UFC but I don’t know that he has a third lined up here. The pace makes the winner of this fight a must have. | |||||
| Joaquin Buckley | 9300 | Antonio Arroyo | Moderate | -180 | -115 |
| Buckley is a singular option and probably always will be. He either catches you with a haymaker or will struggle. Arroyo is hittable but also much taller and utilizes kicks fairly well. This is a big chunk to pay for that profile. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ion Cutelaba | 9000 | Devin Clark | Moderate | -155 | -110 |
| Will we see an improved Cutelaba after training for this fight in Vegas? Despite his antics, he has tools. Namely aggression and power, with some wrestling in his back pocket. Clark has to grind opponents out. That’s a challenge when the hulk out the way Ion does. If he wins there’s a good shot at coming in the first round. | |||||
| Mandy Bohm | 8000 | Ariane Lipski | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +450 |
| Can you stomach a bit of faith in a debutant? I can here. Lipski is always a fade. Especially in a match-up where she isn’t likely to have many edges. Bohm is just live enough for a finish to be intriguing. | |||||
| Emily Whitmire | 8500 | Hannah Goldy | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +500 |
| Whitmire shined against the lower levels of the UFC but has hit the skids in her last two fights. Goldy is back to the beatable level but Whitmire’s path to value is via submission. Goldy is a strong woman and decent enough wrestler to make that not a given. | |||||
| Tafon Nchukwi | 8800 | Mike Rodriguez | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +175 |
| Both of these guys need to get back on track. Tafon may want it more. He’s also back up at his natural weight of 205. I think that pays dividends in the output and energy departments where he looked sluggish. Slow Mike is also not immune to getting knocked out if you can catch him. | |||||
| Heili Alatengheili | 8400 | Gustavo Lopez | Risky | -145 | +350 |
| Durability and timely wrestling have paid off for Alateng in the UFC. We’ve seen Lopez dominated in the wrestling, albeit in a late-notice fight with Merab Dvalishvili. | |||||
| Gustavo Lopez | 7800 | Heili Alatengheili | Risky | +105 | +330 |
| Through three UFC fights Alateng has allowed his opponents to tee off on him. He’s managed to win two of the three by close decision. Getting consistently outstruck is a tricky path to walk. Gustavo is game in any fight and due for a win. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Brandon Jenkins | 6700 | Rongzhu Rongzhu | Somewhat-Risky | +240 | #N/A |
| We have to kick off the tier with the suppressed price on Jenkins. He’s a late replacement underdog opposite Rongzhu who was already $7600. The fight is lined heavily in Rong’s favor, which I don’t get at all. Maybe he ties up Jenkins and wins with cage control. Jenkins isn’t one to let that happen. He has his flaws but absolutely works to win. Kazula Vargas was sticking and moving against Rong in his debut like Izzy Adesanya. | |||||
| Rongzhu Rongzhu | 7600 | Dakota Bush | Somewhat-Risky | -305 | #N/A |
| If Rong has shaken those debut jitters and actually attempts some volume it’s a very winnable fight. We’ve been fading Chinese newcomers with great success lately, however. | |||||
| Nate Maness | 7000 | Tony Gravely | Somewhat-Risky | +180 | +500 |
| Maness has been doing him best Darren Elkins impression through two fights. Gravely pushes a hard wrestling pace so it is possible he gasses and Maness does it again. Hard to count on it, though. | |||||
| Carlston Harris | 7300 | Impa Kasanganay | Risky | +105 | +200 |
| Something in my gut is telling me Harris pulls out a submission win. The veteran will need some tricks against the younger fighter and better athlete. Impa isn’t a finisher, yet. That leaves the door open to late trouble. | |||||
| Devin Clark | 7200 | Ion Cutelaba | Risky | +135 | +400 |
| If Clark is still conscious after about nine minutes he can grind up a tired Cutelaba. That’s a fairly big “if.” Plus it doesn’t smash the DK scoring. | |||||
| Mike Rodriguez | 7400 | Tafon Nchukwi | Risky | -105 | +275 |
| Slow Mike is the more technical striker. He should be able to win there enough to be competitive. Tafon is a strong dude and looks to take heads off. Not the kind of opponent we feel great about using Rodriguez against. | |||||
| Antonio Arroyo | 6900 | Joaquin Buckley | Risky | +155 | +250 |
| Arroyo would have to show a yet-to-be-seen willingness to lean on his submission game. If Buckley starts huffing and puffing a takedown could lead to the right opportunity. | |||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Tony Gravely | $9,200 |
| Montel Jackson | $9,500 | |
Mid Tier | Ion Cutelaba | $9,000 |
| Mandy Bohm | $8,000 | |
| Value Tier | Brandon Jenkins | $6,700 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Arman Tsarukyan | $23 |
| Erin Blanchfield | $22 | |
Mid Tier | Tony Gravely | $19 |
| Ryan Spann | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Brandon Jenkins | $9 |
Favorite Bets: Spann +150, Bohn +105
Favorite Props: Jackson by KO +110, Tsarukyan ITD +150
Live Dogs: Spann, Bohm, Kianzad, Harris, Lopez, Jenkins
Stats & Picks
| Anthony Smith | vs | Ryan Spann |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record | Record: 19-6-0 | |
| Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (26%) | |
| Subs | ||
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Ion Cutelaba | vs | Devin Clark |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 15-6-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
| 12 KO/TKO (80%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Ariane Lipski | vs | Mandy Bohm |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 13-7-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 (1 NC) |
| 6 KO/TKO (46%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Loading... | vs | Christos Giagos |
| Loading... | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record | Record: 19-8-0 | |
| 5 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (37%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (31%) | Subs | |
| Loading... | Vegas Odds | +550 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Nate Maness | vs | Tony Gravely |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 21-6-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | |
| +180 | Vegas Odds | -220 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 7/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Joaquin Buckley | vs | Antonio Arroyo |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (75%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (44%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -180 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Mike Rodriguez | vs | Tafon Nchukwi |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 11-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 5-1-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (82%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (80%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Pannie Kianzad | vs | Raquel Pennington |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 16-5-0 | Record | Record: 11-9-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (9%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Rongzhu Rongzhu | vs | Brandon Jenkins |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 15-7-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (65%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | |
| -305 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Montel Jackson | vs | JP Buys |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (60%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | |
| -650 | Vegas Odds | +460 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Erin Blanchfield | vs | Sarah Alpar |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-5-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (22%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | |
| -380 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Impa Kasanganay | vs | Carlston Harris |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Gustavo Lopez | vs | Heili Alatengheili |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 12-6-0 | Record | Record: 14-8-1 |
| 5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |