The biggest PPV of the year is here. Three five-round fights makes the DFS landscape truly unique. The undercard is filled with finishers and heavy grapplers. It’s going to be a fun night. Since this isn’t at the Apex Center in Vegas the cage is back to the slightly larger normal version. That favors technicians a tad.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Alexander Volkanovski vs Brian Ortega | 8600/7600 | - | Stackability: Safe | -190/ +160 | +225/+300 |
| The TUF coaches will face off in the cage in this built-up main event. Volk has taken 7/10 rounds from Max Holloway through his last two fights. It can’t be stressed enough how difficult a feat that is. Ortega has been eyeing a title shot as a young gun for a bit now. He was getting ahead of himself in jumping up competition level until an injury layoff seems to have allowed his striking to catch up to his lethal BJJ. I don’t see Ortega winning a technical striking battle the way he did against TKZ. He made Zombie come to him and fight an uncomfortable fight. Volk is happy to fight on the front or back foot. Ortega’s main path is a submission, obviously, but I do think he isn’t getting enough credit for his punching power. We’ve seen Volk chin checked and be able to weather the storm but it’s something that happens to him occasionally. It shapes up as a very competitive fight and great cash stack. I’m going to side with the pressure and relentless pace of Volk but roster plenty of both. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Valentina Shevchenko | 9500 | Lauren Murphy | Safe | -1,500 | -250 |
| This division just has nothing to offer Valentina in the way of competition. Andrade was the only dynamic challenger in a long time and Bullet smashed her. It’s not a question of if she wins but when. We’ve seen her exercise patience in the cage and not press for quick finishes. Murphy is generally tough and not a big risk taker so there’s reason to limit your exposure to the most expensive fighter. | |||||
| Matthew Semelsberger | 9400 | Martin Sano | Somewhat-Safe | -525 | -190 |
| It’s weird seeing Semelsberger up at this price. He’s a solid fighter but not someone that should go off at these odds in the UFC. Sano is a buddy of Nick Diaz and hasn’t fought in a couple years. Even when he was fighting the results were uninspiring. He’s a BJJ specialist without the wrestling to get things where he needs them. Semelsberger should light him up on the feet but it’s hard to feel confident he pays of value at the price. | |||||
| Curtis Blaydes | 9200 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Moderate | -335 | +100 |
| The UFC isn’t giving Blaydes any cupcakes, or at least he doesn’t want them. After not taking down Derek Lewis and ducking into an uppercut he needs to get his title aspirations back on track. Jair isn’t hard to take down. You just have to be conscious to do it. That’s the tricky part against an elite power puncher of the HW division. We thought Blaydes to be fairly durable prior to that fight. It’s not the same confidence but he’s the deserving favorite with huge grappling points potential. | |||||
| Taila Santos | 9300 | Roxanne Modafferi | Moderate | -435 | +275 |
| Santos has every advantage here besides experience. Roxy has made her UFC living on coming in as a huge underdog to upcoming talents and just grinding them to decision wins. Santos is a better grappler than the women Roxy has done that too so it’s not going to be as easy. Santos gassed in her UFC debut but has looked solid cardio-wise since. All in all, Santos should cruise but it could have some tense moments. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 8900 | Marlon Moraes | Somewhat-Risky | -255 | +240 |
| The mid-range convo has to start with Merab. The Machine using relentless takedowns and insane cardio to overwhelm his foes. Marlon is a pretty big step up for him. The wrestling volume hasn’t translated against other step ups like John Dodson (though Dodson’s strengths are very similar to Merabs). If Moraes doesn’t land an early KO he’s likely to tire. It’s a very risky spot while Moraes has gas in the tank however. | |||||
| Chris Daukaus | 8800 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | Somewhat-Risky | -210 | +100 |
| Daukaus is getting a favorable matchup that’s a notable name. My bigger concerns are with Shamil’s tight style. If it’s a contest of cage control more than range striking the scoring will suffer. Shamil is getting on in years and hasn’t had a fight in some time, however. The younger, hungrier man may put him out to pasture. | |||||
| Dan Hooker | 8700 | Nasrat Haqparast | Somewhat-Risky | -144 | +215 |
| I’d like Hooker more if he hadn’t flown from New Zealand on Thursday. Long flights mess with your body. He made weight fine but I worry about both fighters endurance and durability in this spot. Dehydrated bodies make brains that are at risk of concussions. If he does have his trademark durability it’s probably a winnable fight on the back if his big output. | |||||
| Jessica Andrade | 9000 | Cynthia Calvillo | Somewhat-Risky | -235 | +150 |
| Andrade is always an interesting DK play. When she wins it’s with power wrestling and heavy punches. Calvillo is a tough opponent on both accounts but not someone so good that I can’t see paths for a big score here. | |||||
| Uros Medic | 8400 | Jalin Turner | Risky | -120 | +140 |
| Medic is going to test Turner early. He’s a tough dude and comes to bang. That’s a solid recipe for defeating Turner who has the better physical gifts if he gets going. It bears some risk, like counting on any early finish. We did see Vincente Luque blast through Turner in one round, though. | |||||
| Robbie Lawler | 8300 | Nick Diaz | Risky | -155 | +200 |
| Lawler has been training and fighting in the last half decade. That’s more than we know about Diaz. Lawler’s body is slowing and he isn’t the dangerous dude he used to be. He may not need to be against a fighter out of the sport for so many years and living a lifestyle that’s wearing on the brain. WIld brawls are a specialty of both men but Lawler has been in them much more recently. | |||||
| Omar Morales | 8500 | Cody Brundage | Risky | -165 | +275 |
| I see Morales as the clear favorite but have him this low due to his typically low volume. He controls distance extremely well and doesn’t take many risks. The striking power is there for big KOs he just doesn’t give himself the chance to do it often enough. Pierce is a pressure/volume guy so maybe that changes in this spot. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Nick Maximov | 8000 | Karl Roberson | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +180 |
| I’m a tad less interested in Maximov after an opponent switch but his gameplan will still be the same. Execute takedowns on a loop. He held his own to win on DWCS up two weight classes on late notice at HW. That kind of fighter always grabs your attention. Both guys debuting ups the chaos factor but I think Maximov gets it done. | |||||
| Nick Diaz | 7900 | Robbie Lawler | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +350 |
| No one knows what to expect from Diaz once that cage is locked. Not even himself. It’s been six years since his uninspiring loss to Anderson Silva and that was on the heels of a two year layoff. Ten years to find someone’s last competitive fight is ludicrous. He’s a born fighter and in his head probably still has that edge. There’s just too many questions about where his head and body are for me to be comfortable than more than a share or two. | |||||
| Marlon Moraes | 7300 | Merab Dvalishvili | Somewhat-Risky | +205 | +450 |
| Moraes best path is finding that knockout magic of old and never letting Merab even get started. The man has done it enough to know it’s possible. Merab’s striking has been improving but let’s not pretend it’s in Marlon’s ballpark. Moraes is also live if he’s figured out how to maintain his cardio later into the fight. | |||||
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 7000 | Curtis Blaydes | Risky | +260 | +350 |
| This narrative is clear. Jair probably knockouts Blaydes out during a lapse in defense or is going to get wrestle blanketed. The KO is most likely in the early going when his arms are fresh. Big rish/reward here. I get the sense Jair will be a popular dog given it’s HW and Blaydes was just KO’d. Worth considering the pivot in GPPs. | |||||
| Jalin Turner | 7800 | Uros Medic | Risky | +100 | +275 |
| If Turner keeps his head on straight in the early going he can get to work using his length and combination of skills. We’ve only seen Medic show the ability to come out like a canon shot. I don’t hate that Turner is also the more season MMA professional. | |||||
| Nasrat Haqparast | 7500 | Dan Hooker | Risky | +125 | +275 |
| Nasrat has the same challenges Hooker does in the travel department. He’s never been a huge output guy so jet lag is fairly worrisome. Hooker could be equally jet lagged and has much more damage to his brain from repeated wars. Haq is live for a KO but only slightly. | |||||
| Cynthia Calvillo | 7200 | Jessica Andrade | Risky | +190 | +550 |
| It feels like Calvillo is getting written off after a bad looking loss to Katlyn Chookagian. I’m willing to keep an open mind to that just being a bad matchup for her. You beat Andrade one of three ways: precision boxing, overwhelming power, or, most recently, smothering wrestling. Calvillo can pull off any of the three to some extent. | |||||
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 7400 | Chris Daukaus | Risky | +175 | +350 |
| Heavyweights be heavyweights. The old Russian’s main goal is to fight so tight it frustrates his opponent into mistakes. That’s where heavyweight power comes in handy. | |||||
| Martin Sano | 6800 | Matthew Semelsberger | Risky | +385 | #N/A |
| Sano would need to spring some kind of trap on Semelsberger and pull off a hail mary submission. Not an impossibility given it’s MMA and crazy things happen on the regular. There’s a ton of leverage here if you can tolerate the very low odds. | |||||
Core Plays:
Top Tier | Valentina Shevchenko | $9,500 |
| Curtis Blaydes | $9,200 | |
Mid Tier | Alexander Volkanovski | $8,600 |
| Robbie Lawler | $8,300 | |
| Value Tier | Marlon Moraes | $7,300 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Curtis Blaydes | $21 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | $20 | |
Mid Tier | Chris Daukaus | $19 |
| Nick Maximov | $18 | |
| Value Tier | Cynthia Calvillo | $10 |
Favorite Bets: Morales -160, Calvillo +190
Favorite Props: Moraes ITD +450, Ortega/Volkanovski OVER 3.5 rounds -160, Murphy/Shevchenko OVER 2.5 rounds -120
Live Dogs: Ortega, Moraes, Rozenstruik, Turner, Calvillo, Diaz, Haqparast, Modaferri
Stats & Picks:
| Alexander Volkanovski | vs | Brian Ortega |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 22-1-0 | Record | |
| 11 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | vs | Lauren Murphy |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 21-3-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (53%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
| -1,500 | Vegas Odds | +850 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Nick Diaz | vs | Robbie Lawler |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 26-9-0 (2 NC) | Record | |
| 13 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 20 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (31%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Curtis Blaydes | vs | Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 14-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (92%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -335 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jessica Andrade | vs | Cynthia Calvillo |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 21-9-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-1 |
| 8 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (22%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | |
| -235 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 5/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Marlon Moraes | vs | Merab Dvalishvili |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 23-8-1 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (15%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (26%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| +205 | Vegas Odds | -255 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Dan Hooker | vs | Nasrat Haqparast |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 20-10-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (69%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (35%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -144 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | vs | Chris Daukaus |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 20-5-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (91%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +175 | Vegas Odds | -210 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | vs | Taila Santos |
| $6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 25-19-0 | Record | Record: 17-1-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (16%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (59%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | |
| +330 | Vegas Odds | -435 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Uros Medic | vs | Jalin Turner |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-5-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (80%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Cody Brundage | vs | Nick Maximov |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 5-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | vs | Martin Sano |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 4-2-1 |
| 5 KO/TKO (63%) | Knockouts | |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | |
| -525 | Vegas Odds | +385 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jonathan Pearce | vs | Omar Morales |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 10-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (80%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (18%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | |
| +145 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |