We’re back in Vegas at the APEX Center for this Fight Night card. Lately that has meant needing huge scores to win GPPs thanks to exciting fights. This card doesn’t feel much different. Make sure the fighters you back have paths to smash scores. Decision wins en masse aren’t going to do it. Note that the Ladd-Chaison fight is canceled.
Playbook:
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker | 8800/7400 | - | Stackability: Risky | -155/ +135 | -125/+175 |
| This has the makings of a pretty fun fight. Walker is obviously a KO or bust fighter and walking meme. Santos used to be the king of violence but hasn’t had the same energy since shredding both knees in a razor-thin loss to Jon Jones. That was two fights ago so it’s possible he finds his footing any time. If Walker doesn’t pull off his highlight reel magic then Santos probably catches him in the second half of a round. Walker’s flaws are his gas tank and striking defense. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Karol Rosa | 9300 | Bethe Correia | Safe | -590 | +275 |
| Rosa has been a machine in the UFC. She’s aggressive in all areas and pushes an impressive pace. Correia came out of retirement for this so I doubt her typically shoddy cardio can match Rosa’s. Cash and GPP lineups start here. | |||||
| Alexander Hernandez | 9400 | Mike Breeden | Somewhat-Safe | -550 | -125 |
| The UFC results for Hernandez have been up and down. He’s excelled when he gets lower level fights. That’s the case here with late replacement Breeden. Hernadez’s biggest advantage is his strength and wrestling. He doesn’t always really on it, however. This is a fine pivot to Rosa but the lack of pace requires an early finish to be GPP material. | |||||
| Casey O'Neill | 9000 | Antonina Shevchenko | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | +140 |
| The narrative in this one is plain as day: ONeil has shown capable grappling and submission chops in the UFC. Shevchenko gets taken down almost at will by opponents. Unless O’Neil tries to show she can hang on the feet this is a submission win in waiting. | |||||
| Alejandro Perez | 9100 | Johnny Eduardo | Moderate | -235 | +120 |
| Perez has typically been a guy that’s relied on favorable judging to get his UFC wins. Eduardo fights tend to end ITD, however. The main question is what does Eduardo have to offer at 41, after 3 years off. His last win was also 5 years ago. Perez should win but needs a finish to contend in the value department of the tier. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Devonte Smith | 8700 | Jamie Mullarkey | Moderate | -150 | +130 |
| Smith is a very smooth striker with solid power. I’ve eased up on my low opinion of Mullarkey since he cashed as a dog for me last time out. His grit is undeniable. He’s just outgunned in too many areas by Smith. If Smith doesn’t get a finish he has a shot at racking up strikes. | |||||
| Niko Price | 8400 | Alex Oliveira | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +120 |
| The wildness of Niko Price fights has calmed some of late. He’s still an animal and has a crazy reach to go with a willingness to pressure at all times. His loss to Michel Perreira isn’t big for me given Perreira should be fighting up at 185 and Niko couldn’t handle his size. Oliveira doesn’t have much defense these days and has to fight his opponents fight. That means a war for Price. | |||||
| Krzysztof Jotko | 8600 | Misha Cirkunov | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +175 |
| This is a hard fight to cap since Misha is making his debut down at 185. For a guy that had chin issues and some cardio woes, a 20-pound drop is concerning. Jotko isn’t all that aggressive but Misha has been hurt by even glancing blows. Jotko is a solid wrestler, as well. Misha’s BJJ ace in the hole may not matter if Jotko doesn’t want the fight there. Probably Jotko by somewhat lackluster decision but his is live for the KO. | |||||
| Kevin Holland | 8500 | Kyle Daukaus | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +200 |
| Holland can clearly hang with anyone on the feet. He’s also got the BJJ to defend himself on the mat, despite lacking the wrestling to get up off it. If he keeps it standing enough he’s very live. Dauk is a grappler by trade, however. | |||||
| Joe Solecki | 8300 | Jared Gordon | Risky | -140 | +275 |
| Solecki is in a tough spot here. He had trouble with another vet in Jim Miller despite winning. Gordon is basically Miller with cardio (and less lethal BJJ). Is he going to outwrestle him? Probably not. Solecki’s own BJJ is always a threat but hard to get it done that way if you aren’t controlling your opponent. So can he strike with Gordon at Gordon’s pace? We’ll likely find out. | |||||
| Stephanie Egger | 8200 | Shanna Young | Risky | -140 | +330 |
| Egger is another clear grappler with the edge on the mat. She’ll have to get it there first, however. Young outguns her on the feet but hopefully, Egger is smart enough not to press things there. Young also had a baby only four months ago. That’s a crazy turn around time on your body. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jared Gordon | 7900 | Joe Solecki | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +400 |
| Gordon is returning to featherweight after two tough cuts down a weight. He isn’t an elite athlete, just a dude with a ton of heart and the willingness to go where many won’t. Cardio is the most underrated weapon in MMA. Solecki’s BJJ could be a problem given the natural openings for your opponent that style results in. Gordon has a slight advantage everywhere else. It will be fun to see if the return to 155 results in a vintage Flash Gordon performance. He's going to be a popular cash play. | |||||
| Kyle Daukaus | 7700 | Kevin Holland | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +400 |
| The UFC seems content to keep giving Holland grapplers to contend with. Holland is content to keep getting put on his back. This fight shapes up the same way. The takedown is there if Dauk wants it. Given his BJJ skills he probably does. He also showed his toughness in a war with Brendan Allen so he’s got the chin to stand up to a few shots. | |||||
| Misha Cirkunov | 7600 | Krzysztof Jotko | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +200 |
| Misha needs a submission early in this one. I don’t have any faith in his cardio or chin after cutting to 185 for the first time. He’s got one of the best BJJ games in MMA but falls apart under pressure too often. | |||||
| Jamie Mullarkey | 7500 | Devonte Smith | Risky | +130 | +275 |
| Mullarkey’s wins are always going to be of the junkyard dog variety. He’s decently well-rounded but doesn’t excel anywhere. He can take a punch as well, which is a good thing for how hittable he is. He’s going to need to make it an ugly fight and hope for Smith to get tired. | |||||
| Johnny Eduardo | 7100 | Alejandro Perez | Risky | +190 | +380 |
| Many pegged Perez as a fraud after multiple greasy decision wins. Eduardo is the type to go out on his shield in contrast. His striking is dangerous but he forces his opponent to return fire. There’s risk but leverage here. | |||||
| Gaetano Pirrello | 7000 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | Risky | +215 | +450 |
| Pirrello has no answer to Ricky Simon’s wrestling as a late replacement. That’s less of an issue against Andrade, who just aims to knock you back behind a brick wall frame. Not the hardest style to out-technique. Pirrello is live for a decision upset here. | |||||
| Mike Breeden | 6800 | Alexander Hernandez | Risky | +400 | +700 |
| Breeden is at his best late in fights when he takes it to his opponent on the feet. It’s long odds he gets there against Hernandez but not an impossibility given Hernandez’s frequent lack of urgency. Hernadez’s frame also lends to cardio trouble. There’s huge leverage against the biggest favorite on the card. | |||||
Core Plays:
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Karol Rosa | $9,300 |
| Alexander Hernandez | $9,400 | |
Mid Tier | Devonte Smith | $8,700 |
| Krzysztof Jotko | $8,600 | |
| Value Tier | Jared Gordon | $7,900 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Karol Rosa | $22 |
| Niko Price | $19 | |
Mid Tier | Casey O'Neill | $18 |
| Stephanie Egger | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Kyle Daukaus | $13 |
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Daukaus +145, Smith -145
Favorite Props: Egger ITD +330, O’Neill ITD +140
Live Dogs: Gordon, Daukaus, Walker, Cirkunov, Mullarkey, Pirrello, Eduardo
Stats & Picks:
| Thiago Santos | vs | Johnny Walker |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 21-9-0 | Record | Record: 18-5-0 |
| 15 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 15 KO/TKO (83%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Kevin Holland | vs | Kyle Daukaus |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 21-7-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
| 12 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Alex Oliveira | vs | Niko Price |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 22-10-1 (2 NC) | Record | |
| 12 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | |
| +150 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Misha Cirkunov | vs | Krzysztof Jotko |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 22-5-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (27%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (53%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Aspen Ladd | vs | Macy Chiasson |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | |
| -275 | Vegas Odds | +220 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 5/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Alexander Hernandez | vs | Mike Breeden |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (80%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -550 | Vegas Odds | +400 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Joe Solecki | vs | Jared Gordon |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (9%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (35%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (64%) | Subs | |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | vs | Casey O'Neill |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | |
| +185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Bethe Correia | vs | Karol Rosa |
| $6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 11-5-1 | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| +425 | Vegas Odds | -590 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Devonte Smith | vs | Jamie Mullarkey |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (91%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (69%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | |
| -150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | vs | Gaetano Pirrello |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 26-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-6-1 |
| 19 KO/TKO (73%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (73%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) | Subs | |
| -265 | Vegas Odds | +215 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Stephanie Egger | vs | Shanna Young |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 5-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-4-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (14%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Alejandro Perez | vs | Johnny Eduardo |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 22-8-1 | Record | Record: 28-12-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (36%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | |
| -235 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |