After weeks in the desert, the UFC has crunched fourteen fights onto this card. There are some fund young names and the Main Event has plenty of narrative. If you haven’t heard, Paulo Costa said earlier this week he weighed 211 lbs and wasn’t going to make 185. Passing briefly by a 195 catchweight the fight was just bumped up a weight class to 205. I don’t think it changes the outlook for either fighter very much. Even if avoiding the cut lets Costa retain some energy he likely isn’t in his peak shape being so far off weight. Vettori is no small middleweight, either. Both gents are big mad heading into a fun fight.
Playbook:
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori | 7600/8600 | - | Stackability: Risky | +155/ -180 | +250/+165 |
| Weight issues aside, this fight likely comes down to how well Vettori’s chin holds up. Costa was able to pressure and stop everyone he fought up until Adesanya. Vettori isn’t one to except an opponents will so they will meet in the center at some point early. If Marvin doesn’t get dropped he’s going to get to work using his grinding style and likely looks to make Costa spend some time on his back. It’s not the best stack since the outcome is pretty binary. I’m hesitant to trust a KO is coming for Costa so Vettori is my pick. It does feel like there could be a leverage opportunity on Costa with the public shunning his shenanigans this week. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mason Jones | 9500 | David Onama | Somewhat-Safe | -435 | -150 |
| Mason Jones has looked great through two UFC fights but has no wins to show for it (a close loss to Mike Davis and a NC). He seems very legit on pace, wrestling, and toughness. Onama’s main counterpoint is that he’s coached by James Krause who always has something up his sleeve for the second half of a fight. It has to get there first. however. | |||||
| Grant Dawson | 9300 | Ricky Glenn | Somewhat-Safe | -490 | +130 |
| Dawson has been a DK horse his whole UFC career. Mainly that’s thanks to wrestling and slick BJJ. He’s been looking to show his striking off a bit too much lately for my liking, however. If Dawson leans on the grappling he should have a good night. Glenn has been mat returned his fair share in prior fights. Dawson does have some punching power, as well, if Glenn’s lost a step. | |||||
| Nicolae Negumereanu | 9100 | Ike Villanueva | Moderate | -235 | -120 |
| A fight with Ike is as easy a layup as you get at this level. He’ll brawl with you for a few minutes but is entirely too hittable. Nic tore through the Romania scene against comparable fighters. He’s obviously live for a KO but also live for a submission if you want a longshot bet. | |||||
| SeungWoo Choi | 9200 | Alex Caceres | Moderate | -280 | +240 |
| Choi will negate the usual reach advantage Caceres enjoys. Choi also showed he can stalk a slippery opponent in his win over Yusuff Zalal. That also means it’s not likely to be the most exciting fight and a longshot to end ITD. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jai Herbert | 8800 | Khama Worthy | Moderate | -180 | +100 |
| Herbert needs a win in the UFC badly. He’s an older prospect and facing a pink slip if he loses his third outing. The good news is that his length and dynamic striking make it pretty likely he checks Worthy’s suspect chin in the early going. Worthy doesn’t have much left in the survival department when he gets hurt. | |||||
| Zviad Lazishvili | 8500 | Jonathan Martinez | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | #N/A |
| We’re not sure entirely how good Zviad is yet. He fought all 0-0 fighters in Georgia on his way to 10-0. Then he won two LFA fights and took home their vacant BW belt. People in his clearly believe in him. When you see his Merab-esque wrestling you get why. He’ll be looking to catch a kick or get under the base of the rangy Martinez. If that happens I don’t see Martinez being able to fight his way back. The only catch is that Martinez kicks very hard and an early KO loss is a risk. | |||||
| Jeff Molina | 8700 | Daniel Da Silva | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +275 |
| Molina’s best weapons are his calm in the face of adversity and his gas tank. Both are hallmarks of James Krause’s pupils. Da Silva is a dangerous young fighter but Molina has been making a career of teaching that kind of guy a lesson in MMA chess. Usually at a great pace with a little of everything mixed in. | |||||
| Tabatha Ricci | 8900 | Maria Oliveira | Somewhat-Risky | -265 | +140 |
| In a move that’s equal parts brave and stupid, Ricci made her debut as a late replacement up a weight class against the hard-charging Manon Fiorot. It did not go well. She’s back to 115 against a very beatable opponent in Oliviera, who’s cherry-picked weaker matchups her whole career. Her path to DK value is getting some grappling going against a very upright striker. | |||||
| Jessica-Rose Clark | 8500 | Joselyne Edwards | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +400 |
| Jessy-Jess is a good opponent for the raw Edwards. Clark will mix all the mixed martial arts while leaning on her superior fitness. I find Edwards enigmatic. She’s looked very live pushing a hard pace but also very vulnerable to exactly the type of well-rounded fighter Clark is. | |||||
| Junyong Park | 8200 | Gregory Rodrigues | Risky | +100 | +350 |
| The Iron Turtle is happy to sign up and fight people no one else wants to. His gritty style often levels the playing field. He probably shouldn’t play around on the mat here, however. That leaves a KO as his path to GPP value. Not out of the questions but not something he’s known for. | |||||
| Gregory Rodrigues | 8000 | Junyong Park | Risky | -120 | +250 |
| Rodrigues is a pretty complete package: size, striking, wrestling, BJJ. The chink in the armor was a fairly easy KO loss to Jordan Williams. Park isn’t a devastating puncher but neither is Williams. Rodrigues’s best path is to get things on the mat and exploit Park’s suspect submission defense. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Joselyne Edwards | 7700 | Jessica-Rose Clark | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +700 |
| If Edwards has made some leaps in the gym she has the tools to beat Clark. Edwards aggression is hard to handle for many opponents. She’ll need to stay off the mat to implement that striking game plan. Clark is a total gatekeeper who loses to those with upward mobility. | |||||
| Daniel Da Silva | 7500 | Jeff Molina | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +250 |
| Wily veteran taking on young hot head, an MMA tale as old as time. Da Silva has shown dangerous striking at the lower levels. He’s stepping into a new league, though. Molina has been in plenty of fire fights and knows how to keep his wits. If you start to gas it only encourages Molina to press. That’s occasionally been Molina’s undoing, as he doesn’t defend particularly well. We’re also in a smaller cage than Molina utilized in his debut to play matador. | |||||
| Khama Worthy | 7400 | Jai Herbert | Somewhat-Risky | +155 | +240 |
| Worthy has two paths given how unreliable his chin has shown to be: one-punch KO or sneaky grappling. Herbert’s length will make dropping him a challenge. That length is also a problem for his takedown defense. Maybe Worthy can get to work on the mat early enough to avoid being hurt. | |||||
| David Onama | 6700 | Mason Jones | Risky | +330 | +500 |
| Plenty of eyebrows raised at Onama raising his hand to step up and face the Welshman on short notice. Onama is part of James Krause corner crew so he was already planning to be in town. I’d normally write off the late replacement facing a wrecking machine like Jones but Krause and team must see something they think they can exploit. There are worse things to back. | |||||
| Jonathan Martinez | 7700 | Zviad Lazishvili | Risky | +100 | #N/A |
| Matinez is facing an uphill battle against the constant wrestling attack of Zviad. If he does manage some early takedown defense we haven’t seen Zviad have to strike for extended periods, yet. That’s not a guaranteed advantage for Martinez but it’s his only path. He’s also an odds value so may garner some analytic interest. | |||||
| Ricky Glenn | 6900 | Grant Dawson | Risky | +360 | +800 |
| If Glenn can keep the fight standing, or Dawson chooses to mainly strike, Glenn’s unorthodox style makes him live to pull off a decision. We’ve been looking for a spot to fade Dawson but I’m not sure this is it. Glenn’s at the tail end of his career. | |||||
| Alex Caceres | 7000 | SeungWoo Choi | Risky | +225 | +550 |
| Caceres would need to submit Choi to have any value to us on DK. He has the skillset, just not the aggression to feel much confidence he can do it. | |||||
Core Plays:
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Mason Jones | $9,500 |
| Nicolae Negumereanu | $9,100 | |
Mid Tier | Marvin Vettori | $8,600 |
| Zviad Lazishvili | $8,500 | |
| Value Tier | Daniel Da Silva | $7,500 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Mason Jones | $23 |
| Marvin Vettori | $22 | |
Mid Tier | Zviad Lazishvili | $17 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Joselyne Edwards | $13 |
Favorite Bets: Lazishvili -120, Negumereanu -235
Favorite Props: Costa-Vettori FDNGTD -175, Dawson ITD +130
Live Dogs: Edwards, Costa, Da Silva, Worthy, Onama, Caceres
Stats & Picks:
| Paulo Costa | vs | Marvin Vettori |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 17-5-1 |
| 11 KO/TKO (85%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (12%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | |
| +155 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Grant Dawson | vs | Ricky Glenn |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 17-1-0 | Record | Record: 22-6-1 |
| 4 KO/TKO (24%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (55%) |
| 11 SUBMISSIONS (65%) | Subs | |
| -490 | Vegas Odds | +360 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jessica-Rose Clark | vs | Joselyne Edwards |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 10-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (30%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Alex Caceres | vs | SeungWoo Choi |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 18-12-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (60%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +225 | Vegas Odds | -280 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Francisco Trinaldo | vs | Dwight Grant |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 26-8-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (35%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (64%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (19%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Nicolae Negumereanu | vs | Ike Villanueva |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 18-12-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (60%) | Knockouts | 15 KO/TKO (83%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -235 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Junyong Park | vs | Gregory Rodrigues |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Mason Jones | vs | David Onama |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 10-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (63%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | |
| -435 | Vegas Odds | +330 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Tabatha Ricci | vs | Maria Oliveira |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 5-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (58%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| -265 | Vegas Odds | +215 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jamie Pickett | vs | Laureano Staropoli |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 11-6-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (73%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (56%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | |
| +185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Khama Worthy | vs | Jai Herbert |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 16-8-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (80%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (19%) | Subs | |
| +155 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Jeff Molina | vs | Daniel Da Silva |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | |
| -160 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Livinha Souza | vs | Randa Markos |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-12-1 |
| 2 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (57%) | Subs | |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |