The UFC is treating us well these last two weeks with back to back PPV bangers. Here we have another card with two belts on the line and an undercard stocked with great matchups. As was the case last week, you’re likely facing at least one stack in cash games, if not two. There’s also another main event underdog priced far too low in Colby Covington if you want to take the risk there.
PLAYBOOK
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington | 9300/6900 | - | Stackability: Safe | -320/ +250 | +120/+650 |
| This is low-key the most heated rivalry in the UFC. Mostly because of Colby’s vitriol but Usman leans into. The first fight was extremely close despite the emphatic punctuation of Usman’s late KO win. One judge even had it score Colby’s way at that point. The lack of wrestling was unsurprising. Both know how good the other is in that department. Both felt they could win it on the feet. It will be interesting to see if Colby mixes it up given that Usman matched his striking pace and carries more power. All signs point to this being another very close fight that will head into the championship rounds and have a possibly controversial outcome. The line value and GPP leverage will certainly be the Covington side. Still, I have to pick Usman and his elite athleticism that has blossomed with Trevor Wittman coaching his striking. A must stack in cash. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dustin Jacoby | 9600 | John Allan | Somewhat-Safe | -380 | -115 |
| Jacoby was ready to step in on less than a week’s notice as a veteran kickboxer with experience in same night tournaments. Allan will be majorly outmatched on the feet by him. His main risk is that he’s going to run out of gas faster without a full camp and that Allan has shown the ability to wrestle at times. Jacoby has worked hard to fix his horrible wrestling but it will always be a liability. All in all, a risky profile for the most expensive fighter. | |||||
| Melsik Baghdasaryan | 9200 | Bruno Souza | Somewhat-Safe | -335 | +130 |
| We’re still dealing with a fighter who has 7 total MMA bouts (he has boxing and kickboxing experience, as well). That said, his nickname “The Gun” is a perfect moniker. He’s aggressive and accurate and deadly powerful. The plus money ITD odds likely reflect his opponents karate style and that makes it a very tempting bet. We’ve seen that style shredded to bits when they can’t stay out of range. | |||||
| Alex Pereira | 9100 | Andreas Michailidis | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | -120 |
| The claim to fame for Pereira is his highlight KO of Izzy Adesanaya in a kickboxing war. He’s done it all in the world and needs to get busy in MMA if he wants to leave his mark at the age of 34. Michailidis is a nice UFC debut as a solid enough fighter who’s also pretty beatable. It should be a fun debut but barring a takedown or haymaker from Michailidis it’s Pereira’s night. | |||||
| Ian Garry | 9500 | Jordan Williams | Somewhat-Safe | -400 | -190 |
| Another much anticipated debutant in Garry here. He’s an Irish product with wins over some UFC vets already on his resume. His one knock is that he keeps his hands low. Williams is a warrior but doesn’t have the kind of one-punch power that worries me here. Williams also didn’t look as durable after his first weight cut to 170. | |||||
| Phil Hawes | 9400 | Chris Curtis | Somewhat-Risky | -310 | -105 |
| There are two versions of Phil Hawes fight. He either sees an opening for an enormous haymaker or he grinds against the cage for a decision. His power is immense when he’s fresh enough to swing hard. If not he’s leaning on opponents trying not to completely gas. Very boom/bust for the price. Curtis is also a 30-fight vet and very live as an underdog. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Justin Gaethje | 8900 | Michael Chandler | Moderate | -210 | -125 |
| Gaethje comes in as a nice value here off of his loss to Khabib some time ago. He’s still the most violent individual in MMA. Chandler has brought the heat in two UFC fights but his weak points showed in losing to Charlie Oliviera in the second round. Gaethje has worked to stay violent while closing some of the easy shots he was giving up in counters. His leg kicks are crippling and if Chandler looks to brawl that’s Gaethje’s wheelhouse. Wrestling is the one liability he’s giving up to Chandler but Chandler doesn’t press that edge all that hard these days. | |||||
| Shane Burgos | 9000 | Billy Quarantillo | Moderate | -200 | +175 |
| This fight is an absolute banger. Burgos hits super hard and he keeps coming unless you kill him. Billy Q has to eat punishment to put his best weapon on display: his cardio. Burgos has my pick but I have a little bit of concern on how much damage his chin has absorbed. If it holds he’s likely live for the KO or a decision with a knockdown or two. | |||||
| Marlon Vera | 8800 | Frankie Edgar | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +200 |
| Vera’s a hard price to swallow this week. His only real path is to KO Edgar. Frankie was once iron chinned but age and wear have caught up to him in spots. If Vera didn’t continuously give away first rounds I might back him heavier. He’ll be looking to end the fight in the final two frames against someone that’s crafty and can wrestle. | |||||
| Ode Osbourne | 8700 | CJ Vergara | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +140 |
| Ode’s a dangerous and rangy fighter at the weight. He has KOs and submission wins on his record. Vergara coming in as a late replacement is right in Ode’s crosshairs. When he wins Ode tends to score very well. | |||||
| Rose Namajunas | 8200 | Zhang Weili | Risky | +100 | +240 |
| The rare co-main title fight that’s also a rematch is happening this card. Rose’s swift KO of Zhang left room for people to question how the fight goes if it went longer. We get the chance to find out. Not much has changed, besides the line. Rose has an advantage at range over everyone in the division. She can be bullied in the wrestling department but also has some slick BJJ outs. The crowds seem to be talking themselves into Zhang’s physicality so Rose may be a couple ticks lower in ownership. | |||||
| Zhang Weili | 8000 | Rose Namajunas | Risky | -120 | +250 |
| Being the bully is clearly Zhang’s path to success. Jessica Andrade has twice shown that getting in Rose’s face changes the tone of the fight. That said, Joanna couldn’t bully her and she’s the WMMA queen of bullying. Zhang will have to be pretty flawless implementing that approach, which she was not last fight. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 7700 | Nassourdine Imavov | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +200 |
| Edmen is going to be a popular underdog. He stormed into the UFC before stumbling against top ten competition. Imavov is not that. He’s a good kickboxer and tends to ignore the grappling. That’s why people are buying into Edmen since his losses were to grapplers. The problem is he’s a dangerous striker but still at a technical disadvantage. That makes him overly dependent on the KO. He’s certainly capable of that but it’s always a risk to depend on. | |||||
| Billy Quarantillo | 7200 | Shane Burgos | Somewhat-Risky | +170 | +450 |
| As much as Billy Q is staring down a dangerous barrel his junkyard mentality keeps him in every fight. Burgos has had some grappling struggles in his past and his chin is also showing some signs of wear. It’s a great price for the underdog and Billy has been good to our wallets. | |||||
| Michael Chandler | 7300 | Justin Gaethje | Somewhat-Risky | +175 | +350 |
| I’m playing Gaethje heavily but I can’t ignore how dangerous Chandler is. He’s willing to throw caution to the wind in opportune moments and go for broke to KO his opponent. Often early on. He is also a world class wrestler. Gaethje hasn’t had much trouble there but Khabib did make taking him down look easy. | |||||
| Frankie Edgar | 7400 | Marlon Vera | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +500 |
| This is a buying opportunity. Everyone has the image of Cory Sandhagen’s flying knee KO of Frankie fixed in their minds. His chin is worse for wear and the output game is harder and harder as he ages but he’s still been competitive with Pedro Munhoz and went five with Max Holloway despite losing. Vera’s likely to give him the first round. Edgar also has his wrestling in the backpocket even though he doesn’t implement it as much these days. | |||||
| Chris Curtis | 6800 | Phil Hawes | Risky | +245 | +450 |
| This line is a pretty big disrespect to Curtis. He’s been around the block and matches up well with Hawes' weaknesses. Mainly that Hawes gases and Curtis has shown the ability to win by finish late in fights. Hawes also has major chin issues as he tires. The string of UFC wins for Hawes are nice but don’t belay how close the last two have been. Especially to Imavov where he could have been KO’d twice. | |||||
| CJ Vergara | 7500 | Ode Osbourne | Risky | +160 | +240 |
| There’s been a tale of two fighters for Ode Osbourne in the UFC. Against solid competition he’s looked lost. Against subpar competition he’s looked very dangerous. Vergara is tough to measure as a UFC debutant but he has some decent names on his fight resume. The late notice nature gives me pause but a good gameplan and hard nosed approach could keep him in the fight. | |||||
| John Allan | 7800 | Aleksa Camur | Risky | +290 | +650 |
| The path for Allan is purely wrestling based. Jacoby already has a glaring liability in the grappling. When you factor in that he’s a week of replacement with a risk of gassing out it’s a very viable upset here. | |||||
| Gian Villante | 7900 | Chris Barnett | Risky | -130 | +240 |
| The line on Villante has flipped to him being the favorite. Barnett is not a UFC mainstay by any means. If he’s motivated it’s a very winnable fight for Gian. That’s a major question given his announcement this will be his retirement fight. | |||||
| Andreas Michailidis | 7100 | Alex Pereira | Risky | +200 | +500 |
| Michailidis is the MMA vet despite being the worse striker. That occasionally surprise us and the glitzy striker ends up in situations they aren’t prepared to handle. Michailidis is mainly a brawler, however. | |||||
CORE PLAYS
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Melsik Baghdasaryan | $9,200 |
| Ian Garry | $9,500 | |
Mid Tier | Justin Gaethje | $8,900 |
| Rose Namajunas | $8,200 | |
| Value Tier | Chris Curtis | $6,800 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Melsik Baghdasaryan | $21 |
| Ian Garry | $22 | |
Mid Tier | Justin Gaethje | $18 |
| Frankie Edgar | $13 | |
| Value Tier | John Allan | $9 |
Favorite Bets: Namajunas +100, Edgar +140, Curtis +245
Favorite Props: Baghdasaryan ITD +130, Burgos/Quarantillo UNDER 2.5 rounds -135
Live Dogs: Covington, Namajunas, Edgar, Chandler, Curtis, Shahbazyan, Allan, Barnett
STATS & PICKS
| Kamaru Usman | vs | Colby Covington |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 19-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-2-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (47%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | |
| -320 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Rose Namajunas | vs | Zhang Weili |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 21-2-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (48%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Frankie Edgar | vs | Marlon Vera |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 23-9-1 | Record | Record: 17-7-1 |
| 7 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (35%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | |
| +140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Shane Burgos | vs | Billy Quarantillo |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 16-3-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (44%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | |
| -200 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Justin Gaethje | vs | Michael Chandler |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 22-3-0 | Record | Record: 22-6-0 |
| 19 KO/TKO (86%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (45%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | |
| -210 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 3/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Alex Pereira | vs | Andreas Michailidis |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 3-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (54%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Al Iaquinta | vs | Bobby Green |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 14-6-1 | Record | Record: 27-12-1 |
| Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (33%) | |
| Subs | ||
| +155 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Phil Hawes | vs | Chris Curtis |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 26-8-0 |
| Knockouts | 14 KO/TKO (54%) | |
| Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) | |
| -310 | Vegas Odds | +245 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | vs | Nassourdine Imavov |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (82%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Ian Garry | vs | Jordan Williams |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 9-5-0 (1 NC) |
| 4 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (78%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | |
| -400 | Vegas Odds | +300 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Gian Villante | vs | Chris Barnett |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 17-13-0 | Record | Record: 21-7-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (59%) | Knockouts | 16 KO/TKO (76%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (12%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Dustin Jacoby | vs | John Allan |
| $9,600 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 15-5-1 | Record | |
| 10 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (69%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | |
| -380 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Melsik Baghdasaryan | vs | Bruno Souza |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (83%) | Knockouts | |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -335 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |