Someone in Terrance McKinney's corner tested positive for COVID-19 so McKinney's fight with Fares Ziam is now OFF for today's card.
There's a lack of big names on this card but there are still solid fights. The midrange is a mine field again this week. We saw underdogs come through aplenty last week. Will they be barking again?
Playbook:
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ketlen Vieira vs Miesha Tate | 7900/8300 | - | Stackability: Safe | -115/ -105 | +250/+350 |
| Tate is being fast-tracked for a title shot after coming out of retirement. It makes sense. Amanda Nunes has no real challengers. Vieira is a solid bar to clear for her but likely outgunned by Tate. Vieira counts on a wrestling edge or big punches finding a home. Tate is likely the better wrestler and cleaner striker. The main risk is that it's a slow paced affair with a lot of leaning on each other. An okay stack but not a must. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Adrian Yanez | 9100 | Davey Grant | Somewhat-Safe | -310 | -125 |
| Yanez is one of the cleaner young boxers right now. His main flaw is that he's an intelligent fighter and doesn't rush in for quick finishes. Grant's devil-may-care aggression may help increase the odds of an early finish but does add some variance risk. | |||||
| Luana Pinheiro | 9300 | Sam Hughes | Somewhat-Safe | -425 | +140 |
| The UFC is looking to get Pinheiro back on track after a DQ win in her debut. Hughes' manager must not like her very much after giving her a third straight lopsided fight. Pinheiro has the grappling potential we need for big points. | |||||
| Sean Soriano | 9000 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | Moderate | -265 | +130 |
| Soriano is always an easy breakdown. His striking is elite but he couldn't stop his grandmom from taking him down. He's a book bust option against a Chinese fighter who has poor wrestling but the will to attempt it. | |||||
| Taila Santos | 9200 | Joanne Wood | Moderate | -365 | +300 |
| I don't like the price for Santos here. This is a major step up. Jojo is aging but still in the middle of the top 10. She'll get beat up but returns just as much volume. Santos best path as the stronger woman is via wrestling. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Terrance McKinney | 8400 | Fares Ziam | Moderate | -105 | +110 |
| McKinney has been a boom or bust guy at this level. A tad odd for a wrestler. Ziam has been the opposite. His weakness lies in the wrestling department, as well. The risk is that McKinney works at cage control if he can't complete takedowns and we end up with no stats. | |||||
| Sean Brady | 8900 | Michael Chiesa | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +140 |
| Brady is looking for a test and Chiesa is a good one. Both guys had been cleaning out weaker competition lately. Everyone has a striking advantage over Chiesa but his BJJ is a quick out for him at any point. | |||||
| Cody Durden | 8600 | Aori Aoriqileng | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +300 |
| Durden is favored more because of his opponent here. There's not that much to love about him. Aori will bring the fight and that keeps him in our GPP pool for the brawl that could ensue. | |||||
| Pat Sabatini | 8700 | Tucker Lutz | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +230 |
| I don't have enough faith in Sabatini to pay this price. He's a generalist who's outclassed athletically fairly easily. He's going to fight hard but that's not always enough. | |||||
| Rani Yahya | 8000 | Kyung Ho Kang | Risky | +100 | +200 |
| Yahya is, as always, sub or bust. He's at the end of his career and it's becoming harder to pull that rabbit out of the hat. | |||||
| Kyung Ho Kang | 8200 | Rani Yahya | Risky | -120 | +280 |
| I'd be more interested in Kang if his style didn't require the grappling and putting himself in constant danger. Heavy top pressure is an effective way to beat Yahya, though. You just have to keep your neck safe. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Michael Chiesa | 7300 | Sean Brady | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +333 |
| Either Chiesa has you beat in the grappling department or he's toast. Brady has shown good grappling but also hasn't faced any kind of test in the UFC yet. If he stumbles Chiesa is always dangerous. | |||||
| Loma Lookboonmee | 7400 | Loopy Godinez | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +500 |
| I'd call Loma a smash play if she had any kind of ITD shot. Getting the better striker (and possibly grappler) at this price is bonkers. | |||||
| Aori Aoriqileng | 7600 | Cody Durden | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +350 |
| Qileng put on a show against Jeff Molina but ultimately ran out of gas. We're feeling like Molina is pretty good right now. If he brings the same heat he'll be a good dart throw. | |||||
| Joanne Wood | 7000 | Taila Santos | Somewhat-Risky | +280 | +800 |
| Jojo had figured out MMA chess pretty well: solid cardio with high output and lots of leg kicks. Only quality fighters can typically solve that problem, which has been the case with her loses. People are high on Santos' physical tools but this challenge is more of a mental one. Plenty of prospects don't pass it the first time. | |||||
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 7200 | Sean Soriano | Risky | +215 | +450 |
| Do we weight the 14 takedowns Shayilan was credited with against Josh Culibao or weight that he only went 2/14 against a mediocre wrestler? Soriano is a fish out of water in the grappling but he's been working on it for a long time. If this fight occurs standing Shayilan's in trouble. | |||||
| Davey Grant | 7100 | Adrian Yanez | Risky | +245 | +500 |
| Grant is a YOLO brawler who finds opportunities in pushing a hectic pace. He's never going to be favored but he's live in every fight. | |||||
| Tucker Lutz | 7500 | Pat Sabatini | Risky | +100 | +400 |
| Lutz is kind of a worse version of Sabatini, though maybe a little more dangerous. | |||||
Core Plays:
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Adrian Yanez | $9,100 |
| Luana Pinheiro | $9,300 | |
Mid Tier | Miesha Tate | $8,300 |
| Rani Yahya | $8,000 | |
| Value Tier | Loma Lookboonmee | $7,400 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Luana Pinheiro | $23 |
| Adrian Yanez | $22 | |
Mid Tier | Miesha Tate | $17 |
| Terrance McKinney | $15 | |
| Value Tier | Michael Chiesa | $12 |
Favorite Bets: Tate -115, Yanez -310, Loma +140
Favorite Props:
Live Dogs: Chiesa, Loma, Wood, Grant, Aoriqileng, Nuerdanbieke
Stats & Picks:
| Ketlen Vieira | vs | Miesha Tate |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 19-7-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (21%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | |
| -115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Michael Chiesa | vs | Sean Brady |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 18-5-0 | Record | Record: 14-0-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (21%) |
| 11 SUBMISSIONS (61%) | Subs | |
| +145 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Joanne Wood | vs | Taila Santos |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 18-1-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (56%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | |
| +280 | Vegas Odds | -365 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Rani Yahya | vs | Kyung Ho Kang |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 27-10-1 (1 NC) | Record | |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (12%) |
| 21 SUBMISSIONS (78%) | Subs | |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Davey Grant | vs | Adrian Yanez |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (23%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (64%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (62%) | Subs | |
| +245 | Vegas Odds | -310 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 7/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Pat Sabatini | vs | Tucker Lutz |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 10 SUBMISSIONS (67%) | Subs | |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Rafa Garcia | vs | Natan Levy |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (9%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (64%) | Subs | |
| -115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Loma Lookboonmee | vs | Loopy Godinez |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| +140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Terrance McKinney | vs | Fares Ziam |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (42%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (55%) | Subs | |
| -105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Cody Durden | vs | Aori Aoriqileng |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 11-3-1 | Record | Record: 18-8-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (28%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) | Subs | |
| -160 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | vs | Sean Soriano |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 19-7-0 | Record | Record: 14-7-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (47%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (26%) | Subs | |
| +215 | Vegas Odds | -265 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Luana Pinheiro | vs | Sam Hughes |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 5-3-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | |
| -425 | Vegas Odds | +320 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |