PLAYBOOK:

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Rob Font vs Jose Aldo8400/7800-Stackability: Safe-140/ +120+250/+320
This is a solid main event. Aldo is still putting on great fights and Font has been stepping up through the ranks steadily. It's more interesting as a five round fight since Aldo can stifle pace. It's a must stack in cash. I'll side with Font for his busier style.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Brendan Allen9600Chris CurtisSomewhat-Safe-360+120
Outside of a boxing lesson Sean Strickland gave him on short notice Allen has been pretty effective at winning UFC fights. He's aggressive with good power and very dangerous BJJ. His main fault is that the aggression gets him into too many wars. You can't keep reliably winning those in the UFC. Curtis is game for any fight and crafty but he's at a pretty big physical disadvantage.
Alex Morono9500Mickey GallSomewhat-Safe-230+275
Morono’s a fairly big risk at this price. He’s got some pretty big liabilities due to his lack of physical tools. He’s a much better striker and has a solid BJJ game. Gall’s only real path is submissions from back control or a fortunate punch hurting Morono.
Jimmy Crute9200Jamahal HillModerate-175+100
Crute the brute bit off more than he could chew against Anthony Smith last time out. He went to his wrestling too late to survive an injured leg. We’ll see if he learned from that mistake. Hill is nasty on the feet but very raw in the grappling department.
Manel Kape9400Zhalgas ZhumagulovRisky-270+200
This is a steep price for Kape. He's 1-2 in the UFC and hasn't looked near as explosive. He's shown flashes and has the ability to swing rounds if it works out. It's still a risky play.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Rafael Fiziev8300Brad RiddellModerate-130+300
This fight is going to be a banger. Both men are savvy kickboxers. Both lay it all on the line for the win. I see Fiziev as a click better in the striking. His kicks are so heavy. They'll wear Riddell down as the fight goes.
Leonardo Santos8800Clay GuidaSomewhat-Risky#N/A+200
Santos has distilled into his final boom or bust form. He doesn't have much gas in the tank but swings for the fences and also has deadly BJJ.
Alonzo Menifield8700William KnightSomewhat-Risky-160+170
Menifield should be the better man here. Whether he pushes for an early finish or paces himself and avoids Knights haymakers.
Dusko Todorovic8600Maki PitoloSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
Dusko is someone I'd been too high on after he dominated low level competition. He's got the tools to dominate Pitolo. His decision making and gas tank is the part in question.
Bryan Barberena8400Darian WeeksRisky-130 
Barbs only path to winning fights is to out-volume opponents while leaning on his chin. Problem is both his chin and body are failing after the huge punishment he's absorbed over the years.
Chris Gruetzemacher8200Claudio PuellesRisky-105+320
Gruetz is way too hittable to trust fully. He will out-work anyone if given the chance. Puelles is certainly susceptible to that.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Maki Pitolo7600Dusko TodorovicSomewhat-Risky+135+240
Coconut Bombz has been a thorn in my side his entire UFC run. His performances are all over the map. He did give Julian Marquez all he could handle before tapping late his last time out, though. Dusko has been a letdown in his own right since his UFC debut. Maki is a live dog.
Jeremiah Wells7100Jake MatthewsSomewhat-Risky+150+240
Wells is a very live dog. His wrestling should match Matthew's and he's a more explosive striker if not a less technically proficient one.
Jamahal Hill7000Jimmy CruteSomewhat-Risky+150+200
Hill is a problem for anyone on the feet. He’s rangy and dynamic. Crute is a tough dude but got sloppy trying to strike with Anthony Smith. If Crute doesn’t get things to the mat Hill is very live.
Brad Riddell7900Rafael FizievSomewhat-Risky+110+400
In the match up of kickboxing coaches Riddell is pro(more well rounded. He's leaned into the takedown when the opportunity presents itself. Fiziev has solid takedown defense, though. All in all, it's gonna be a war. Riddell has the guts to pull off the upset.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov6800Manel KapeSomewhat-Risky+220+500
Zhalgas is getting huge disrespect with this price. Kape's willingness to let his opponent lead the dance gets him into trouble. Zhalgas stays on his opponent, if nothing else.
Clay Guida7400Leonardo SantosRisky+160+550
Guida has two things going for him: an endless gas tank and a wrestling base. Santos is very dangerous but doesn't stay that way deep into fights.
Chris Curtis6600Brendan AllenRisky+280+400
Curtis came through for us in a major way in his UFC debut. He used a slick shell defense to let Phil Hawes wear himself out and then crumpled Hawes with a well-timed hook. Allen isn’t going to gas like that but his war-like style puts his chin at risk against a crafty veteran boxer.
Darian Weeks7800Bryan BarberenaRisky+110 
A bet on Weeks is a bet against Barberena's shoddy striking defense and failing back.

CORE PLAYS:

Draftkings Core Plays

Top Tier

Brendan Allen$9,600
Alex Morono$9,500

Mid Tier

Rafael Fiziev$8,300
Chris Gruetzemacher$8,200
Value TierZhalgas Zhumagulov$6,800
   
   
Fanduel Core Plays

Top Tier

Brendan Allen$23
Alex Morono$22

Mid Tier

Jimmy Crute$21
Leonardo Santos$20
Value TierJeremiah Wells$11

 

Favorite Bets: 

Fiziev -130, Zhumagulov +220, Wells +150

 

Favorite Props:

Morono ITD +275


Live Dogs: 

Aldo, Wells, Zhumagulov, Martin, Pitolo, Weeks 

 

Stats & Picks:

   
Rob FontvsJose Aldo
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 19-4-0RecordRecord: 30-7-0
 Knockouts17 KO/TKO (57%)
 Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (3%)
-140Vegas Odds+120
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Brad RiddellvsRafael Fiziev
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 10-1-0RecordRecord: 10-1-0
5 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (60%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs

1 SUBMISSIONS (10%)

+110Vegas Odds-130
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Jimmy CrutevsJamahal Hill
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 12-2-0RecordRecord: 8-1-0 (1 NC)
7 KO/TKO (19%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (17%)
13 SUBMISSIONS (36%)Subs

9 SUBMISSIONS (50%)

-175Vegas Odds+150
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Clay GuidavsLeonardo Santos
$7,400DFS Salary$8,800
Record: 36-18-0RecordRecord: 18-5-1
5 KO/TKO (42%)Knockouts 
4 SUBMISSIONS (33%)Subs 
+160Vegas Odds#N/A
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Brendan AllenvsChris Curtis
$9,600DFS Salary$6,600
Record: 17-4-0RecordRecord: 27-8-0
5 KO/TKO (29%)Knockouts15 KO/TKO (56%)
9 SUBMISSIONS (53%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (4%)
-360Vegas Odds+280
6/10Lineup Pool23/10
 0 
Alex MoronovsMickey Gall
$9,500DFS Salary$6,700
Record: 20-7-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 7-3-0
10 KO/TKO (67%)Knockouts 
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs 
-230Vegas Odds+190
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Maki PitolovsDusko Todorovic
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 13-8-0RecordRecord: 10-2-0
7 KO/TKO (54%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (60%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (23%)Subs

3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)

+135Vegas Odds#N/A
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Manel KapevsZhalgas Zhumagulov
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 16-6-0RecordRecord: 14-5-0
 Knockouts7 KO/TKO (50%)
 Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (7%)
-270Vegas Odds+220
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Bryan BarberenavsDarian Weeks
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 15-8-0RecordRecord: 5-0-0
4 KO/TKO (24%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (44%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (41%)Subs

3 SUBMISSIONS (33%)

-130Vegas Odds+110
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Jake MatthewsvsJeremiah Wells
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 17-5-0RecordRecord: 9-2-1
2 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (29%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs

2 SUBMISSIONS (29%)

-175Vegas Odds+150
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Cheyanne VlismasvsMallory Martin
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 6-2-0RecordRecord: 7-4-0
 Knockouts9 KO/TKO (90%)
 Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-190Vegas Odds 
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Alonzo MenifieldvsWilliam Knight
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 11-2-0RecordRecord: 10-2-0
2 KO/TKO (20%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (47%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs

3 SUBMISSIONS (20%)

-160Vegas Odds+135
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Claudio PuellesvsChris Gruetzemacher
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 11-2-0RecordRecord: 15-4-0
7 KO/TKO (58%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (70%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs

1 SUBMISSIONS (10%)

-115Vegas Odds-105
3/10Lineup Pool6/10