PLAYBOOK:
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Rob Font vs Jose Aldo | 8400/7800 | - | Stackability: Safe | -140/ +120 | +250/+320 |
This is a solid main event. Aldo is still putting on great fights and Font has been stepping up through the ranks steadily. It's more interesting as a five round fight since Aldo can stifle pace. It's a must stack in cash. I'll side with Font for his busier style. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Brendan Allen | 9600 | Chris Curtis | Somewhat-Safe | -360 | +120 |
Outside of a boxing lesson Sean Strickland gave him on short notice Allen has been pretty effective at winning UFC fights. He's aggressive with good power and very dangerous BJJ. His main fault is that the aggression gets him into too many wars. You can't keep reliably winning those in the UFC. Curtis is game for any fight and crafty but he's at a pretty big physical disadvantage. | |||||
Alex Morono | 9500 | Mickey Gall | Somewhat-Safe | -230 | +275 |
Morono’s a fairly big risk at this price. He’s got some pretty big liabilities due to his lack of physical tools. He’s a much better striker and has a solid BJJ game. Gall’s only real path is submissions from back control or a fortunate punch hurting Morono. | |||||
Jimmy Crute | 9200 | Jamahal Hill | Moderate | -175 | +100 |
Crute the brute bit off more than he could chew against Anthony Smith last time out. He went to his wrestling too late to survive an injured leg. We’ll see if he learned from that mistake. Hill is nasty on the feet but very raw in the grappling department. | |||||
Manel Kape | 9400 | Zhalgas Zhumagulov | Risky | -270 | +200 |
This is a steep price for Kape. He's 1-2 in the UFC and hasn't looked near as explosive. He's shown flashes and has the ability to swing rounds if it works out. It's still a risky play. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Rafael Fiziev | 8300 | Brad Riddell | Moderate | -130 | +300 |
This fight is going to be a banger. Both men are savvy kickboxers. Both lay it all on the line for the win. I see Fiziev as a click better in the striking. His kicks are so heavy. They'll wear Riddell down as the fight goes. | |||||
Leonardo Santos | 8800 | Clay Guida | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | +200 |
Santos has distilled into his final boom or bust form. He doesn't have much gas in the tank but swings for the fences and also has deadly BJJ. | |||||
Alonzo Menifield | 8700 | William Knight | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +170 |
Menifield should be the better man here. Whether he pushes for an early finish or paces himself and avoids Knights haymakers. | |||||
Dusko Todorovic | 8600 | Maki Pitolo | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Dusko is someone I'd been too high on after he dominated low level competition. He's got the tools to dominate Pitolo. His decision making and gas tank is the part in question. | |||||
Bryan Barberena | 8400 | Darian Weeks | Risky | -130 | |
Barbs only path to winning fights is to out-volume opponents while leaning on his chin. Problem is both his chin and body are failing after the huge punishment he's absorbed over the years. | |||||
Chris Gruetzemacher | 8200 | Claudio Puelles | Risky | -105 | +320 |
Gruetz is way too hittable to trust fully. He will out-work anyone if given the chance. Puelles is certainly susceptible to that. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Maki Pitolo | 7600 | Dusko Todorovic | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +240 |
Coconut Bombz has been a thorn in my side his entire UFC run. His performances are all over the map. He did give Julian Marquez all he could handle before tapping late his last time out, though. Dusko has been a letdown in his own right since his UFC debut. Maki is a live dog. | |||||
Jeremiah Wells | 7100 | Jake Matthews | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +240 |
Wells is a very live dog. His wrestling should match Matthew's and he's a more explosive striker if not a less technically proficient one. | |||||
Jamahal Hill | 7000 | Jimmy Crute | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +200 |
Hill is a problem for anyone on the feet. He’s rangy and dynamic. Crute is a tough dude but got sloppy trying to strike with Anthony Smith. If Crute doesn’t get things to the mat Hill is very live. | |||||
Brad Riddell | 7900 | Rafael Fiziev | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +400 |
In the match up of kickboxing coaches Riddell is pro(more well rounded. He's leaned into the takedown when the opportunity presents itself. Fiziev has solid takedown defense, though. All in all, it's gonna be a war. Riddell has the guts to pull off the upset. | |||||
Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 6800 | Manel Kape | Somewhat-Risky | +220 | +500 |
Zhalgas is getting huge disrespect with this price. Kape's willingness to let his opponent lead the dance gets him into trouble. Zhalgas stays on his opponent, if nothing else. | |||||
Clay Guida | 7400 | Leonardo Santos | Risky | +160 | +550 |
Guida has two things going for him: an endless gas tank and a wrestling base. Santos is very dangerous but doesn't stay that way deep into fights. | |||||
Chris Curtis | 6600 | Brendan Allen | Risky | +280 | +400 |
Curtis came through for us in a major way in his UFC debut. He used a slick shell defense to let Phil Hawes wear himself out and then crumpled Hawes with a well-timed hook. Allen isn’t going to gas like that but his war-like style puts his chin at risk against a crafty veteran boxer. | |||||
Darian Weeks | 7800 | Bryan Barberena | Risky | +110 | |
A bet on Weeks is a bet against Barberena's shoddy striking defense and failing back. |
CORE PLAYS:
Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Brendan Allen | $9,600 |
Alex Morono | $9,500 | |
Mid Tier | Rafael Fiziev | $8,300 |
Chris Gruetzemacher | $8,200 | |
Value Tier | Zhalgas Zhumagulov | $6,800 |
Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Brendan Allen | $23 |
Alex Morono | $22 | |
Mid Tier | Jimmy Crute | $21 |
Leonardo Santos | $20 | |
Value Tier | Jeremiah Wells | $11 |
Favorite Bets:
Fiziev -130, Zhumagulov +220, Wells +150
Favorite Props:
Morono ITD +275
Live Dogs:
Aldo, Wells, Zhumagulov, Martin, Pitolo, Weeks
Stats & Picks:
Rob Font | vs | Jose Aldo |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 19-4-0 | Record | Record: 30-7-0 |
Knockouts | 17 KO/TKO (57%) | |
Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (3%) | |
-140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Brad Riddell | vs | Rafael Fiziev |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
5 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (60%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
+110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Jimmy Crute | vs | Jamahal Hill |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 (1 NC) |
7 KO/TKO (19%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (17%) |
13 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Clay Guida | vs | Leonardo Santos |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 36-18-0 | Record | Record: 18-5-1 |
5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | |
4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | |
+160 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Brendan Allen | vs | Chris Curtis |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 27-8-0 |
5 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 15 KO/TKO (56%) |
9 SUBMISSIONS (53%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) |
-360 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 3/10 |
0 | ||
Alex Morono | vs | Mickey Gall |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 20-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
10 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | |
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | |
-230 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Maki Pitolo | vs | Dusko Todorovic |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 13-8-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
7 KO/TKO (54%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (60%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | |
+135 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Manel Kape | vs | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 16-6-0 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (50%) | |
Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | |
-270 | Vegas Odds | +220 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Bryan Barberena | vs | Darian Weeks |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 15-8-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
4 KO/TKO (24%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (44%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (41%) | Subs | |
-130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Jake Matthews | vs | Jeremiah Wells |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-1 |
2 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Cheyanne Vlismas | vs | Mallory Martin |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-4-0 |
Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (90%) | |
Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | |
-190 | Vegas Odds | |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Alonzo Menifield | vs | William Knight |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
2 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (47%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | |
-160 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Claudio Puelles | vs | Chris Gruetzemacher |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
7 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (70%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |