The final PPV of the year is set to be a fun one. UFC 269 features two belts on the line and plenty of fireworks. With 15 fights there’s no large need to fade any ownership points. Getting the main event correct is likely to be the final leg of the six person relay you’ll need to pull off. My money is on Charles Oliviera but Dustin Poirier certainly has his paths.
PLAYBOOK:
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier | 7600/8600 | - | Stackability: Moderate | +125/ -145 | +200/+100 |
| The current LW champ and the former interim LW champ square off in this main event. Poirier has year-plus engaged in the Conor drama world and come away with two wins while taking little damage. That’s great for him given how much of a war his fights can become. His strengths will always be heart and a well-rounded skill set. Charles Oliviera was a division dark horse who just hadn’t gotten a big shot. Until he did. He holds the UFC submission record and his rangy striking just keeps getting nastier. Gone is the quitter mantle many saddled him with early in his career after he dug deep to survive Michael Chandler’s first-round barrage and finish Chandler in the second. Those story lines are likely how this one plays out. Poirier will have to weather the early storm and Oliviera will have to find that extra gear if he does. I think Oliviera is a bit too talented not to pick but Poirier is certainly live the later this one goes. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Amanda Nunes | 9500 | Julianna Pena | Safe | -1,000 | -330 |
| The Lady (and an all-time) GOAT continues to gut the weak challengers the UFC can throw at her. The -1000 betting lines tell you everything you need to know here. The biggest risk is Pena could be strong enough to stall in spots and make it a boring fight. | |||||
| Bruno Silva | 9400 | Jordan Wright | Somewhat-Safe | -365 | -225 |
| This is a tailor-made matchup for Silva. Wright has no chin and relies on action to be his defense. Outside of a sneaky BJJ game, Wright is a dead man walking. Silva doesn’t throw high-volume but he throws with mean intentions. | |||||
| Sean O'Malley | 9100 | Raulian Paiva | Somewhat-Safe | -320 | +100 |
| I’d say this is a step-up in competition for O’Malley if Paiva weren’t so thoroughly walloped in his first round against Kyler Phillips (albeit a fight he came back to narrowly win). Paiva is there to be hit. O’Malley deploys reach and volume that will land. At least there’s a chance we have to see O’Malley dig a little deeper than usual. | |||||
| Gillian Robertson | 9300 | Priscila Cachoeira | Moderate | -410 | -125 |
| Robertson gets a step down in competition here. The UFC tends to reward her with those after she takes up-and-comers. Cachoeira is out-gunned everywhere but the toughness department. There’s an outside chance Robertson quits if it gets ugly but that’s pretty unlikely when she’s dominating with top-control wrestling. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Andre Muniz | 8500 | Eryk Anders | Moderate | -145 | +120 |
| This is a good test for Muniz. He’s a pretty safe bet to win but Andres hangs with mediocre competition. You have to have a standout skill to beat him easily. Muniz has that in his BJJ but I’m also interested to see if he uncorks with his kicking game. He can land heavy when he wants to. | |||||
| Randy Costa | 9000 | Tony Kelley | Moderate | -170 | -115 |
| Costa only has bangers. He’s all action and forces opponents to meet his aggression. That’s worked out 50% of the time in his 4 UFC fights. Kelley is happy to oblige for a brawl so it should be a fun fight. Costa’s making big strides in his young career so I see him getting the better of exchanges. Kelley’s shown no wrestling to concern me, either. | |||||
| Tai Tuivasa | 8300 | Augusto Sakai | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +130 |
| I’ve been a Tuivasa fan since day one and hope he wins here. My concerns are that he’s gone back to Australia to train, losing that edge AKA gave him, as well as the more chiseled physique. We can expect the Tai of old to show up and throw down with no care for strategy. That can end in him KO’ing his opponent but has also left him vulnerable to getting KO’d himself by better heavyweights. Sakai is tough as nails and a good kickboxer. | |||||
| Ryan Hall | 8900 | Darrick Minner | Risky | -200 | +100 |
| I fully expect Minner to come out hot, jump on a submission, and almost have it, only to get reversed and tap. Hall is happy to grapple with you and that’s where Minner ultimately ends up as his gas tank depletes. | |||||
| Josh Emmett | 8800 | Dan Ige | Risky | -155 | +240 |
| I’d be more on Emmett if he weren’t coming off knee surgery and a big layoff. His power has bailed him out time and time again but Ige is savvy. He can also take a shot. If Emmett is mostly recovered he probably lands the more meaningful punches en route to a close win. | |||||
| Cody Garbrandt | 8700 | Kai Kara-France | Risky | -140 | +150 |
| Garbrandt’s only win since 2016 was against a washed Rafael Assuncao. Que the drop in weight class hoping for greener pastures. Sure he’s going to have a nice reach advantage and a wrestling edge but speed was a huge part of his success and he’s giving up at least some of that down at 125. It’s also not great for a guy with chin issues to cut another 10 pounds. All that said, KKF is a softer landing in the division. Maybe Cody’s power translates into a run. | |||||
| Geoff Neal | 8000 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | Risky | +110 | +165 |
| Ponz is a favorite of many, and I too have a soft spot for him, but it hasn’t been the same since he returned from a layoff last year. His opponent selection is also pretty dangerous. That’s going to catch up with him here. Neal hits as hard as any welterweight and Ponz gets hit a lot these days. That chin is starting to show the miles. | |||||
| Dominick Cruz | 8100 | Pedro Munhoz | Risky | +100 | +550 |
| Cruz just can’t seem to hang them up. He’s definitely a shell of his best self. Even if that’s still a competent UFC fighter where’s he going? He’s just adding damage to his body. This will be a fun fight, though. Munhoz has some nasty kicks and is game to duke it out with the best. His striking defense is his weak point and Cruz can certainly return fire. | |||||
| Pedro Munhoz | 8100 | Dominick Cruz | Risky | -120 | +275 |
| If Munhoz can stay busy at Cruz’s typical pace he can certainly take the win home. That hasn’t always been his strong suit. It’s also nice that Munhoz has some deadly BJJ in the back pocket, even if he ignores it these days. Cruz’s fading chin is also at play if the right strike lands. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Kai Kara-France | 7500 | Cody Garbrandt | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +250 |
| It’s been a pretty easy recipe to defeating Garbrandt after he threw what was left of his chin away in the Dillashaw fights. Stay busy, pepper him, and wait for a meltdown. The stay busy part is what KKF does best. He’s got some risk in tasting Garbrandt’s power. That’s only if he stands still or gets in wild exchanges, though. | |||||
| Erin Blanchfield | 7800 | Miranda Maverick | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +500 |
| These up-and-coming women are fairly evenly matched. Both have well-rounded skill sets and both have killer insticts. It should be a close fight so give me the better price tag. | |||||
| Augusto Sakai | 7900 | Tai Tuivasa | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +215 |
| Sakai is going to be in the danger zone from the get go. Tai comes out throwing hammers. That’s often his best path. It’s also his undoing against better technical fighters. Sakai has the chin and the kickboxing to turn the tide if he can survive the early going. | |||||
| Jordan Wright | 6800 | Bruno Silva | Risky | +280 | +425 |
| Wright has to force the issue because his chin fails him if the fight goes on too long. That’s led to some unexpected wins for him. Against a mauler like Silva, it’s a recipe for disaster, though. I think his best path is actually some sneaky BJJ he’s flashed in opportune moments. | |||||
| Tony Kelley | 7200 | Randy Costa | Risky | +150 | +380 |
| Kelley is a brawler and has the potential to comeback if you don’t put him away. We haven’t had to see what Costa looks like deep into fights because it never gets there. | |||||
| Dan Ige | 7400 | Josh Emmett | Risky | +135 | +450 |
| One of the many reasons to love Dan Ige is his willingness to take the fights no one wants. He’s also just an average athlete and has to get it done with sheer determination much of the time at this level. He may be able to stick and move on Emmett if Emmett shows some ring rust after the surgery layoff. | |||||
| Raulian Paiva | 7100 | Sean O'Malley | Risky | +250 | +550 |
| Maybe Paiva can pull another rabbit out of his hat after absorbing a huge beating early. That’s fairly unlikely. O’Malley has shown some moments of mental “softness” in the cage, however | |||||
| Darrick Minner | 7300 | Ryan Hall | Risky | +170 | +400 |
| Minner would need to catch Hall with an early barrage and hurt him. Certainly possible with the first-round heat Minner brings. He runs out of gas soon after, though. | |||||
| Priscila Cachoeira | 6900 | Gillian Robertson | Risky | +310 | +650 |
| Cachoeira basically has one path in this fight: Robertson gasses out and quits if things get ugly. We haven’t seen that happen in ten UFC fights for Gillian, though. | |||||
CORE PLAYS:
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Amanda Nunes | $9,500 |
| Sean O'Malley | $9,100 | |
Mid Tier | Randy Costa | $9,000 |
| Andre Muniz | $8,500 | |
| Value Tier | Charles Oliveira | $7,600 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Amanda Nunes | $23 |
| Gillian Robertson | $21 | |
Mid Tier | Andre Muniz | $18 |
| Charles Oliveira | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Geoff Neal | $14 |
Favorite Bets: Muniz -145, Neal +110, Oliviera +125
Favorite Props: O’Malley ITD +100, Nunes-Pena OVER 2.5 rounds +135
Live Dogs: Oliviera, Neal, Kara-France, Ige, Blanchfield, Wright
STATS & PICKS:
| Charles Oliveira | vs | Dustin Poirier |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 31-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | |
| 9 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 14 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 19 SUBMISSIONS (61%) | Subs | |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Amanda Nunes | vs | Julianna Pena |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record: 21-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
| 13 KO/TKO (62%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (19%) | Subs | |
| -1,000 | Vegas Odds | +650 |
| 9/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Geoff Neal | vs | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 29-4-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (62%) | Knockouts | 15 KO/TKO (54%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Kai Kara-France | vs | Cody Garbrandt |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 22-9-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (83%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Raulian Paiva | vs | Sean O'Malley |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 21-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-1-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (19%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
| +250 | Vegas Odds | -320 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 8/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Josh Emmett | vs | Dan Ige |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 16-2-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (27%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Pedro Munhoz | vs | Dominick Cruz |
| $8,100 | DFS Salary | $8,100 |
| Record: 19-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 23-3-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (26%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (42%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Augusto Sakai | vs | Tai Tuivasa |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 15-3-1 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (73%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (92%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Jordan Wright | vs | Bruno Silva |
| #N/A | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 12-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 21-6-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 18 KO/TKO (86%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (42%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +280 | Vegas Odds | -365 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Andre Muniz | vs | Eryk Anders |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 21-4-0 | Record | |
| 4 KO/TKO (19%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (57%) |
| 14 SUBMISSIONS (67%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
| -145 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Miranda Maverick | vs | Erin Blanchfield |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (11%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Alex Perez | vs | Matt Schnell |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 24-6-0 | Record | Record: 15-6-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (21%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (13%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | |
| -335 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Ryan Hall | vs | Darrick Minner |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 26-12-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (4%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | |
| -200 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Randy Costa | vs | Tony Kelley |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Gillian Robertson | vs | Priscila Cachoeira |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 9-6 | Record | Record: 10-3 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -410 | Vegas Odds | +310 |
| Lineup Pool |