The UFC returns from a month long hiatus with a whimper before the bang that is sure to be UFC 270 the following week. COVID has wreaked havoc on this Fight Night card. TJ Brown and Brian Kelleher were priced as underdogs and are now favorites against late replacements. They will be in most lineups.
PLAYBOOK:
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Calvin Kattar vs Giga Chikadze | 6900/9300 | - | Stackability: Safe | +195/ -240 | +350/+120 |
| This is a quintessential kicker vs puncher match up. Giga is too good of a kickboxer for most of the MMA world and Kattar is too good of a boxer for almost as big of a group. Kattar gets hit more than it’s good for him and has struggled with kickers before. He’s the deserving underdog but is very live if he can figure out how to close the distance. It’s a half decent cash stack for the odds it goes into the later rounds. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Brandon Royval | 8800 | Rogerio Bontorin | Somewhat-Safe | -170 | +100 |
| Royval is one of our favorite DK targets. His main weapon is an insane pace that is difficult to keep up with. It’s a hard trick to pull off but Royval has a knack for it. If he wins he’s a must roster. | |||||
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 9000 | Dakota Bush | Somewhat-Safe | -180 | +100 |
| Borshxhev has a sizable striking advantage here. He tends to get taken down more often than it's comfortable but he also seems to have capable get up game. Bush can't keep wrestling at a grueling pace, either. | |||||
| Katlyn Chookagian | 8900 | Jennifer Maia | Moderate | -190 | +500 |
| Chook likely does her usual strike from range at a lower pace with little risk taking. That never scores well. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Joanderson Brito | 8600 | Bill Algeo | Moderate | -145 | +275 |
| If Brito can outwrestle Algeo he could score well. Brito has the tools but the concern is the uncertainty he faced with a trainer of his getting COVID and the fight being in limbo. If he stayed focused on cutting weight and tuned out the distractions he’s game. | |||||
| Joseph Holmes | 8600 | Jamie Pickett | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | +150 |
| Holmes has an unusually long reach for the weight. Pickett is used to being the one with the reach advantage. That, combined with Pickett being pretty hittable makes Holmes a play. | |||||
| Jake Collier | 8500 | Chase Sherman | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +350 |
| As a former middleweight, Collier fights at a solid pace for a heavyweight. He’s an average striker with a decent gas tank taking on a solid striker with a shaky gas tank in Sherman. Sherman also eats a lot of heavy shots to put his own pace on. That makes the winner a pretty interesting fighter at the price. | |||||
| Court McGee | 8300 | Ramiz Brahimaj | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +400 |
| McGee is really only interesting if he wrestles, which he doesn’t much these days. Brahimaj is being matched up with him to get some minutes in the Octagon. | |||||
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 7900 | Court McGee | Risky | -120 | +250 |
| Brahimaj’s best path is via submission. McGee is a tested veteran who isn’t falling into many traps, though. You have to be a real talent to blow through him. We haven’t seen that from Brahimaj but he’s improving each time out. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| TJ Brown | 7100 | Charles Rosa | Somewhat-Risky | -210 | |
| You’re looking at the mega chalk after Brown gets a late replacement in Charles Rosa and he winds up the favorite. Rosa is DK poison but he’s on borrowed time in the MMA world. Brown isn’t the best decision maker but he’s a capable fighter. | |||||
| Brian Kelleher | 7500 | Kevin Croom | Somewhat-Risky | -300 | |
| The second chalkiest fighter on the night. Boom Kelleher is accomplished at picking off the lower rungs of the UFC. Croom is noble for stepping in on short notice but likely walking into a losing battle. | |||||
| Chase Sherman | 7700 | Jake Collier | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +275 |
| The Vanilla Gorilla comes to fight every time out. He goes hard from the opening bell. That’s often his undoing but it can work out well for DK scoring when he manages to connect on a big shot. We’re still a bit unsure who Bate Collier the heavyweight is. | |||||
| Rogerio Bontorin | 7400 | Brandon Royval | Risky | +150 | +330 |
| Bontorin is a really interesting opponent for Royval. He’s one of the few fighters that’s as big of a Tasmanian Devil as Royval. His problem is that he can’t match Royval’s gas tank. So it’s win early or get roasted. That’s a GPP profile for sure. | |||||
| Bill Algeo | 7600 | Joanderson Brito | Risky | +125 | +300 |
| Algeo is scrappy in any fight. He stays busy on the feet and has solid BJJ if it hits the mat. | |||||
| Dakota Bush | 7200 | Viacheslav Borshchev | Risky | +155 | +350 |
| If Bush can hold Borshchev down after securing takedowns he has an outside shot. | |||||
| Charles Rosa | 6800 | TJ Brown | Risky | +175 | |
| You want mega leverage? Pivot to the mega chalk’s opponent. Rosa’s only real path to a smash score is snagging an early submission. He has the BJJ but typically avoids risks. | |||||
CORE PLAYS & EXAMPLE LINEUPS:
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Viacheslav Borshchev | $20 |
| Brandon Royval | $19 | |
Mid Tier | Joanderson Brito | $17 |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | $15 | |
| Value Tier | Rogerio Bontorin | $12 |
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Brandon Royval | $8,800 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | $9,000 | |
Mid Tier | Joanderson Brito | $8,600 |
| Brian Kelleher | $7,500 | |
| Value Tier | TJ Brown | $7,100 |
LIVE DOGS:
- Kattar
- Algeo
- Rosa
- Bontorin
- Sherman
STATS & PICKS:
| Calvin Kattar | vs | Giga Chikadze |
| $6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 22-5-0 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| +195 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jake Collier | vs | Chase Sherman |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 12-6-0 | Record | Record: 15-8-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Brandon Royval | vs | Rogerio Bontorin |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 12-6-0 | Record | |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Katlyn Chookagian | vs | Jennifer Maia |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 19-7-1 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Dakota Bush | vs | Viacheslav Borshchev |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 5-1-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| +155 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 7/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Bill Algeo | vs | Joanderson Brito |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 14-6-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-1 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Jamie Pickett | vs | Joseph Holmes |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 12-6-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Court McGee | vs | Ramiz Brahimaj |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 21-10-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Brian Kelleher | vs | Kevin Croom |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 23-12-0 | Record | |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -300 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| TJ Brown | vs | Charles Rosa |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 15-8-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -210 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
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| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
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| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
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| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |