This card should be called UFC 272: Bad Blood. There are plenty of dramatic storylines, from the main event on down. Remember that the quality of underdog is typically better on PPV cards so you need to be more selective with big favorites.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal | 9400/6800 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -335/ +260 | +250/+380 |
| This fight has been years in the making with these two barking through the fence constantly. It's an exciting fight but Colby's wrestling and volume should be too much for Jorge to handle. Masvidal does have decent punching power so he's not drawiing dead but does need a KO to win, IMO. It's a good cash stack with the likelihood it goes five full rounds. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 9600 | Brian Kelleher | Somewhat-Safe | -760 | +120 |
| Cousin Umar looks to take the next step in putting the 135 division on notice. We saw what a Khabib protege can do last week in Makhachev. Umar is poised for more of the same. | |||||
| Kevin Holland | 9100 | Alex Oliveira | Somewhat-Safe | -365 | -120 |
| People have been saying Holland needs to drop to 170 for years now and it finally happened. He should be able to better avoid being outwrestled and his power can play up even more. Cowboy is a soft landing spot for him, to boot. | |||||
| Marina Rodriguez | 9300 | Yan Xiaonan | Somewhat-Safe | -260 | +250 |
| This figures to be a striking affair that, while technical and enjoyable, may not score in DFS. Marina does have exceptional power for WMMA but that’s hard to rely on. | |||||
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 9000 | Tim Elliott | Moderate | -250 | +175 |
| This is a great test for Tagir. He’s been underwhelming in the UFC but is a young fighter capable of making leaps. Elliott will test his wrestling both offensively and defensively. Elliott also tends to gas when pushed that way. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Serghei Spivac | 8700 | Greg Hardy | Moderate | -195 | +120 |
| This is a binary fight. Either Hardy starches Spivac in the first few minutes or Spivac will grind him down and probably submit him. | |||||
| Bryce Mitchell | 8300 | Edson Barboza | Moderate | -155 | +165 |
| Mitchell is taking a huge leap in competition. He managed to beat Andre Fili but Fili was not without his moment. Mitchell will need to find frequent success in the wrestling and bring a full gas tank. On the feet, he’s toast. | |||||
| Jalin Turner | 8200 | Jamie Mullarkey | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | +140 |
| Mullarkey is a tailor-made opponent for Turner. The Aussie’s gritty style of absorbing punishment is going to be out to the test with Turner’s range and power. | |||||
| Mariya Agapova | 8800 | Maryna Moroz | Risky | -170 | +180 |
| We have no idea what mindset Agapova will show up in. She has incredible raw tools but was rumored to be living life in the fast lane and asked to leave ATT prior to her last fight. She made the solid Sabina Mazo look lost in a whitewashing, however. Moroz and she have plenty of bad blood from her time at ATT so she should be properly motivated. | |||||
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 8400 | Nicolae Negumereanu | Risky | -135 | +140 |
| Another inconsistent fight, Nzechkwu is a great raw athlete and very long. He doesn’t fight with much volume and often excepts his opponents will for where the fight goes. Negumereanu is just a guy, though, and Kennedy could hurt him in the stand up eas | |||||
| Dustin Jacoby | 8600 | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Risky | -200 | +140 |
| Jacoby probably gets the stand up war he needs here. He’s a good kickboxer and that’s a dangerous way to fight him. Oleksiejczuk also doesn’t have the deepest gas tank. | |||||
| Devonte Smith | 8500 | Ludovit Klein | Risky | -155 | +120 |
| Smith hasn’t been the same since rupturing his achilles. He’s still a pretty smooth boxer but just looks gunshy too often. Klein’s looked equally lost so one of these fighters likely get back on track. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Renato Moicano | 7200 | Rafael Dos Anjos | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +350 |
| As a late replacement Moicano, price at $7200, is only $100 below his opponent, RDA. You’ll need to take one side in this fight and Moicano has outs via submission and KO. | |||||
| Rafael Dos Anjos | 7300 | Renato Moicano | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +150 |
| RDA’s paths to winning are his deep gas tank and volume or finding Moicano’s shaky chin. That’s certainly a possibility given the quick turnaround for Moicano and extra weight cut. | |||||
| Edson Barboza | 7900 | Bryce Mitchell | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +300 |
| Barboza doesn’t iron clad takedown defense but he’s been able to stuff the non-elite wrestlers in many spots. We don’t know where Mitchell falls just yet but he’s certainly on the raw side technically. If it stays standing, Barboza will tool the young man up with his kick game. | |||||
| Michal Oleksiejczuk | 7600 | Dustin Jacoby | Risky | +170 | +350 |
| Michal probably needs to lean on Jacoby and maybe even take him down if able. A 15-minute kickboxing bout would put him at a disadvantage. He has some UFC takedowns but it’s not his bread and butter. | |||||
| Tim Elliott | 7200 | Tagir Ulanbekov | Risky | +200 | +450 |
| There are sharps out there that have sniffed Tagir as a fraud of sorts. Elliott isn’t a top ten guy anymore but he’s solid enough to expose someone who doesn’t belong in the UFC. And plenty of players still chase that unicorn fight where Elliott put up an all-time high score. | |||||
| Ludovit Klein | 7700 | Devonte Smith | Risky | +135 | +250 |
| Klein could take over in the middle of this fight and land a highlight KO. We’ve seen Smith dropped before and he also wilts if the fight doesn’t go his way. | |||||
| Greg Hardy | 7500 | Serghei Spivac | Risky | +165 | +275 |
| As mentioned, if Hardy doesn’t find an early KO he’ll be worn down via wrestling and submitted. But if he does land big shots…. | |||||
| Maryna Moroz | 7400 | Mariya Agapova | Risky | +150 | +500 |
| Moroz is the tighter technical fighter and has takedowns in her arsenal. That should be enough to expose the worst version of Agapova. It all comes down to whether Agipova has put in a dedicated camp and fights smart. | |||||
EXAMPLE LINEUP
Vegas Plays:
Live Dogs: Moicano, Barboza, Klein, Hardy, Moroz, Elloit, Oleksiejczuk
Stats & Picks:
| Colby Covington | vs | Jorge Masvidal |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 16-3-0 | Record | Record: 35-15-0 |
| 4 | Knockouts | 16 |
| 4 | Subs | 2 |
| -335 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Rafael Dos Anjos | vs | Renato Moicano |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 30-13-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-1 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 0 |
| 10 | Subs | 9 |
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Edson Barboza | vs | Bryce Mitchell |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 22-10-0 | Record | Record: 14-1-0 |
| 13 | Knockouts | 0 |
| 1 | Subs | 9 |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Kevin Holland | vs | Alex Oliveira |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 21-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 22-11-1 (2 NC)
|
| 12 | Knockouts | 12 |
| 5 | Subs | 5 |
| -365 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Serghei Spivac | vs | Greg Hardy |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-4-0 (1 NC) |
| 5 | Knockouts | 6 |
| 6 | Subs | 0 |
| -195 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Jalin Turner | vs | Jamie Mullarkey |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 11-5-0 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
| 8 | Knockouts | 10 |
| 3 | Subs | 3 |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Marina Rodriguez | vs | Yan Xiaonan |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 15-1-2 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 (1 NC) |
| 6 | Knockouts | 0 |
| 1 | Subs | 9 |
| -260 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Nicolae Negumereanu | vs | Kennedy Nzechukwu |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
| 7 | Knockouts | 6 |
| 3 | Subs | 0 |
| +115 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Maryna Moroz | vs | Mariya Agapova |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
| 1 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 5 | Subs | 5 |
| +150 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Brian Kelleher | vs | Umar Nurmagomedov |
| $6,600 | DFS Salary | $9,600 |
| Record: 24-12-0 | Record | Record: 13-0-0 |
| 8 | Knockouts | 1 |
| 10 | Subs | 6 |
| +525 | Vegas Odds | -760 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 8/10 |
| Tim Elliott | vs | Tagir Ulanbekov |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 18-12-1 | Record | Record: 14-1-0 |
| 3 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 6 | Subs | 6 |
| +200 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Devonte Smith | vs | Ludovit Klein |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
| 10 | Knockouts | 8 |
| 1 | Subs | 8 |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Dustin Jacoby | vs | Michal Oleksiejczuk |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 16-5-1 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 (1 NC) |
| 10 | Knockouts | 11 |
| 1 | Subs | 1 |
| -200 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |