Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies

  • O/U: 214.5
  • Spread: MEM -2.5

 

Injuries:

DALLAS

 

MEMPHIS

 

MVP/CPT

Luka Doncic, PG – Luka will, far and away, be the most popular choice for MVP spots tonight. With his 38% usage rate when Porzingis misses and his propensity to throw up double-doubles and triple-doubles (four double-doubles in his last five games), Doncic makes the most sense tonight. We haven’t seen many of the 70-point ceiling games from Doncic this year, but he has been above 41 DK points for 21 straight games, so the extremely high floor is intact. 

Ja Morant, PG – Morant comes into this one a full $2,100 behind Doncic in the MVP salary slot. But his fantasy points per game per dollar of salary is much closer than that tonight. If you consider the MVP salaries, Doncic is at 2.83 fantasy points per dollar tonight while Morant is just slightly behind at 2.77. Morant has also been well over a fantasy point per minute in his last 10 games. Just double check all the news before locking him in. Morant left the game briefly yesterday with an injury, but returned in the second half. All signs point to him playing, but this is the second night of a back to back, so it’s wise to confirm ahead of tip. 

 

UTIL

Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C – I really considered making JJJ an MVP recommendation and I still may go there tonight. But Dallas is a mixed bag for Jackson in terms of what he does best. The Mavericks allow the eighth-most defensive rebounds per game (great for Jackson!), but just the third-fewest blocks. Jackson has been making a living on swats lately, with an insane 21 in his last five games. He is also at nine steals in that span, so with FanDuel’s scoring he makes for an excellent option there. Jackson should still be a strong contributor with points and boards tonight, but I expect output more in the 33-38 points range than the 52-28 he was putting up one week ago. 

Desmond Bane, SG/SF – Other than Morant, Bane has been the most reliable producer for the Grizzlies lately. He has dropped below 30 DK points just twice in his last 11 games and his usage in that span only dropped below 23% one time. The Mavericks are one of the best teams at defending shooting guards this season and their team defense has been elite the last 10 games. But Bane’s usage in the last 10 games is almost 25% and Bane already dropped 47.75 DK points on Dallas once this season. In a game with a tight spread and playoff seeding implications, I’m betting on Bane’s talent to win out. 

Jalen Brunson, PG/SG – Part of that lockdown defense the past 10 games has been due to Brunson, who has turned into a force on both ends of the floor. He has scored double-digit points in every game since Thanksgiving, and also has been hitting the glass and distributing the ball. He has almost six assists and three rebounds per game in his last six contests, making up for the usage rate that dropped once Doncic stepped back into the lineup. 

Maxi Kleber, PF/C – Kleber’s $5,400 salary tag seems quite low for a player who is getting mid-30’s in minutes every night with several Dallas big men on the shelf and for someone who has scored less than 19.5 DK points once in his last 10 games. Over his last four games, Kleber’s fantasy points per game is up by almost seven per game above his seasonal average. In his last game against the Grizzlies, Kleber played 32 minutes and dropped 21 DK points. That is the expectation I have for him tonight with the potential for slightly more as the Grizzlies represent an 18-spot pace bump for Dallas. 

 

Value Tier

John Konchar, SG/SF – Hopefully Konchar isn’t too tired from going to the moon last night. He was a member of several large-field tournament-winning lineups at less than 1% rostership. We can’t count on 15 points, 17 rebounds and 43.75 DK points again, but if we get anything close to the 30 minutes he played last night, he can easily pay off his $3,000 salary. Dillon Brooks is still out and Konchar may have secured himself some more consistent minutes after last night. 

Dwight Powell, C – Kristaps Porzingis is still out tonight, which means we should continue to see plenty of Powell on the court. In the nine games before the blowout on Wednesday against the Knicks, Powell averaged 20.5 DK points per game, so he has an easy path to a 5x salary at just $4,200 tonight. In their past seven games the Grizzlies have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers.