NiP (World rank: #11) vs. BIG (World rank: #9) 

  • Moneyline Odds: NiP (-120) | BIG (-105)
  • Map Handicap: NiP -1.5 (+230) | BIG +1.5 (-295)
  • Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)

This is a best-of-three series for the lower bracket semi-finals of the BLAST Premier Spring Final 2021. The loser will be eliminated while the winner moves on the lower final. 

  • NiP - Rating at event: REZ 1.10 | hampus 1.08 | LNZ 0.93 | device 0.92 | Plopski 0.77
  • NiP - Rating past three months: device 1.11 | REZ 1.10 | hampus 1.03 | LNZ 1.02 | Plopski 0.96
  • BIG - Rating at event: XANTARES 1.14 | syrsoN 1.11 | tabseN 1.00 | k1to 0.93 | tiziaN 0.74
  • BIG - Rating past three months: XANTARES 1.14 | syrsoN 1.13 | tabseN 1.06 | k1to 0.98 | tiziaN 0.95

H2H Data

These rosters just faced each other in May 2021 at Flashpoint 3 and NiP won 2-1 (10-16 Dust2 / 16-6 Overpass / 16-14 Train). Device led the way with 65 kills across three maps, but syrsoN was not far behind with 64 kills and a better K/D ratio than device.

Projected Maps

  • NiP removes Vertigo
  • BIG removes Overpass
  • NiP picks Inferno
  • BIG picks Dust2
  • NiP removes Ancient
  • BIG removes Nuke
  • Mirage is left over

The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. NiP should continue to ban Vertigo while BIG might look to switch things up and ban Overpass since NiP outclassed them on that map, 16-6. This would leave Inferno open, and I think NiP would ‘punish pick’ with that map like NAVI did against BIG on Thursday. BIG will take Dust2 if it is open per usual, and Mirage would make the most sense as the decider map out of the remaining three maps. 

  • NiP - Key stats on Inferno past three months (6 maps): 3-3 W/L record, 41.7% pistol round win percent, 70.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 27.6% round win percent after receiving first death
  • NiP - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (6 maps): REZ +12 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | device +6 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | Plopski 0 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
  • NiP - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 78.8% round win percent after getting first kill, 28.3% round win percent after receiving first death
  • NiP - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): device +4 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
  • *Note: These stats only include the results since device joined the roster.
  • BIG - Key stats on Inferno past three months (1 map): 0-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 76.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 7.7% round win percent after receiving first death
  • BIG - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (1 map): XANTARES +9 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | syrsoN +3 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | k1to -4 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
  • BIG - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (14 maps): 11-3 W/L record, 57.1% pistol round win percent, 74.3% round win percent after getting first kill, 36.4% round win percent after receiving first death
  • BIG - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (14 maps): tabseN +42 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | syrsoN +61 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | XANTARES +59 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | k1to +11 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating

Analysis

BIG will probably win at least one map here, but I still do not necessarily favor them to win the series. BIG would be heavy favorites on Vertigo or Dust2, but Vertigo will likely get banned by NiP and Dust2 should be their map pick. BIG won 16-10 on Dust2 last time these teams faced each other, but they actually dominated their T side to have a 14-1 lead at the half. They easily could have won 16-1 if they won pistol round on CT, and they still should have won by more rounds, but they clearly were taking some risks that you are only allowed to take with a massive lead. All the stats also point to BIG winning on their favorite map, so it is safe to assume they win on Dust2. As for the rest of the maps, I do think NiP should be a decent favorite on any of the maps that get played. NiP stomped BIG on Overpass last time, 16-6, which is why I think that BIG will ban it this time, but if they do leave it open then NiP should pick it and most likely win on it. BIG showed a willingness to float Inferno through the first ban phase on Thursday against NAVI, which is another reason why I think they will ban Overpass and leave Inferno, and NiP would probably pick it in that case. NiP only have a 3-3 record on Inferno since adding device, but their losses were against Virtus.pro, mousesports, and G2, and they had wins against fnatic, G2, and FunPlus Phoenix, so they have played some strong teams and have proven that they can compete on this map, particularly on T side. The rest of the map pool looks to be in their favor as well, and they have been playing Mirage a lot lately if it does end up as the decider. I see this series as 2-1 for NiP which means that I recommend stacking NiP for DFS, although some exposure to BIG might make sense for this competitive series between two teams facing elimination. My favorite plays on Draftkings on NiP in order are device, REZ, hampus, Plopski, then LNZ and I like a three stack from NiP the most here. If you did want to mix in someone from BIG, then XANTARES, syrsoN, tabseN, or K1to could all be good options, with XANTARES being my favorite from BIG. 

G2 (World rank: #4) vs. Complexity (World rank: #14) 

  • Moneyline Odds: G2 (-145) | Complexity (+115)
  • Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (+210) | Complexity +1.5 (-265)
  • Map Total: Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-120)

This is a best-of-three series for the lower bracket semi-finals of the BLAST Premier Spring Final 2021. The loser will be eliminated while the winner moves on the lower final.

  • G2 - Rating at event: NiKo 1.22 | huNter- 1.16 | JaCkz 1.05 | nexa 1.05 | AmaNEk 0.99
  • G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.16 | huNter- 1.12 | nexa 0.99 | AmaNEk 0.99 | JaCkz 0.92
  • Complexity - Rating at event: k0nfig 1.43 | blameF 1.15 | jks 1.07 | poizon 0.95 | RUSH 0.87
  • Complexity - Rating past three months: k0nfig 1.15| blameF 1.15 | jks 1.06 | poizon 0.99 | RUSH 0.90

H2H Data

  • These rosters have never faced each other because KennyS was still on G2 instead of JaCkz when these teams faced in February 2021. Complexity won that series 2-0 (16-14 Mirage / 16-12 Dust2).

Projected Maps

  • G2 removes Overpass
  • Complexity removes Inferno
  • G2 picks Vertigo
  • Complexity picks Mirage
  • G2 removes Nuke
  • Complexity removes Dust2
  • Ancient is left over.

The map pool will continue to be difficult to predict with Ancient now in the mix. G2 permaban Overpass so that map should be gone, while Complexity will probably ban Inferno since that has been G2’s best map as of late. G2 picked Dust2 last time, but I think they might go for Vertigo this time especially since Complexity is on a five map losing streak on Vertigo. Complexity typically pick Mirage and it is tough to assume otherwise, though they may consider switching it up with Ancient since G2 has looked sharp on Mirage with their current lineup.  Ancient or Nuke would be the most likely decider maps in this scenario. 

  • G2 - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 73.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 22.9% round win percent after receiving first death
  • G2 - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): NiKo +45 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | huNter- +31 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating
  • G2 - Key stats on Mirage past three months (4 maps): 4-0 W/L record, 100.0% pistol round win percent, 81.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 40.0% round win percent after receiving first death
  • G2 - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (4 maps): huNter- +42 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | NiKo +36 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | nexa +17 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | AmaNEk -17 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
  • Complexity - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (10 maps): 5-5 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 75.2% round win percent after getting first kill, 26.6% round win percent after receiving first death
  • Complexity - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (10 maps): k0nfig +39 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | jks +9 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | blameF +10 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
  • Complexity - Key stats on Mirage past three months (19 maps): 11-8 W/L record, 60.5% pistol round win percent, 73.5% round win percent after getting first kill, 31.7% round win percent after receiving first death
  • Complexity - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (19 maps): blameF +79 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | k0nfig +61 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | jks +9 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | poizon -6 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating

Analysis

Given what we have seen from these teams so far this tournament, it is hard for me to pick against k0nfig and Complexity in this spot. K0nfig has been the MVP of this tournament thus far, and his team seems to perform better when they are all playing together at the same location as they are in this tournament. I also think the map pool looks pretty good for Complexity, and Complexity did even sweep G2 last time they played, granted KennyS was still on G2 instead of JaCkz. Complexity is my favorite stack for DFS, but I think NiKo is hard to ignore for this series. There is a good chance that we see Mirage and NiKo has been on fire on that map with a 1.47 Rating across four maps played in the past month. K0nfig is my favorite option from this series, and I really like stacking him with blameF, especially since blameF is so cheap, but my third favorite option here might actually be NiKo and stacking two from one team and one from the other may make some sense since both teams are facing elimination, and this should be super competitive. Poizon is certainly too cheap given his upside, though he has not looked great so far this tournament. AmaNEk is also too cheap on the G2 side of things in my opinion, but I will not be focusing on the lower end G2 players. I recommend exposure to Complexity in this spot, but I really like getting NiKo into your lineup as well, if possible. 

  • **Favorite Stacks: NiP, Complexity with NiKo
  • **Favorite CPT plays: k0nfig, device, blameF, NiKo, REZ, hampus
  • **Favorite value plays: Plopski, poizon, jks

 

Welcome to the newly-launched PrizePicks CS:GO DFS article provided by Fantasy Alarm! In this article, I will provide 2-3 of my favorite prop bets from the Prize Pick CS:GO Projections posted on their app! 

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PrizePicks Prop Selections

  1. device (NiP) - Over 33.5 Kills (Maps 1-2) [10% discount from PrizePicks]

This is the no brainer play of the day because PrizePicks is offering a 10% discount on device’s projected total, meaning that they have him projected for 37.2 kills but are letting us take the over at only 33.5 kills. It does not take an expert to tell you that the over is a smart play here. Still, we can expect BIG to pick Dust2 as their map pick and device has 166 kills across eight maps played in the past three months for an average of 20.75 kills per map. NiP will probably choose Inferno or Overpass as their map pick and device has 410 kills across 20 maps of Inferno and Overpass combined for an average of 20.5 kills per map. His overall form has actually not been great in recent weeks, but a player as consistent as device should start playing well again soon, and there is still tremendous upside with the 33.5 kill total offered here.

  1. k0nfig (Complexity) - Over 38.5 Kills (Maps 1-2) 

With the way that K0nfig is playing in this tournament, it would be a bold move to bet against him. In the opening round against NiP, k0nfig led the way with 53 kills across two maps along with a 1.66 Rating and 105.5 ADR. He also had an incredible 15 entry kills while only losing four opening duels. Complexity then got swept by the best team in the world, Gambit, and k0nfig still somehow had the most kills on the entire server with 48 across two maps. He has been known to be a streaky player but right now he is in excellent form, and he can truly be one of the best players in the world when he plays at this level. Complexity will likely pick Mirage where k0nfig has a impressive 1.20 Rating and 0.81 kills per round in the past three months. He has 433 kills across 19 maps played for an average of about 22.79 kills per map on Mirage during that time. G2 could pick Vertigo which would be great for k0nfig. He is the top of his team with an outstanding 1.29 Rating and 0.89 kills per round across ten maps played in the past three months on Vertigo. There are plenty of reasons to like k0nfig’s over in this spot, and with the way he is playing right now he might come close to hitting the over on one single map.