OG (World rank: #10) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #8) - 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: OG (-135) | NiP (+110)
Map Handicap: OG -1.5 (+210) | NiP +1.5 (-265)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (Even) | Under 2.5 (-125)
- This is a best-of-three series for the ESL Pro League Season 14 Quarter-finals.
- OG - Rating at event: mantuu 1.28 | flameZ 1.15 | valde 1.09 | Aleksib 1.03 | niko 1.00
- OG - Rating past three months: mantuu 1.18 | flameZ 1.05 | valde 1.04 | Aleksib 0.96 | niko 0.96
- NiP - Rating at event: device 1.08 | hampus 1.03 | REZ 1.01 | Plopski 0.99 | LNZ 0.91
- NiP - Rating past three months: device 1.10 | REZ 1.10 | hampus 1.08 | Plopski 0.96 | LNZ 0.93
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other in a best-of-one back in June at IEM Summer 2021, and OG won 16-9 on Mirage. Mantuu & flameZ tied for the most kills with 23 each, though mantuu was the highest rated player with a 1.61 Rating.
Map Projections:
NiP removes Mirage
OG removes Vertigo
NiP picks Ancient
OG picks Inferno
NiP removes Nuke
OG removes Overpass
Dust2 is left over
OG - Key stats on Ancient past three months (No maps played)
OG - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (No maps played)
OG - Key stats on Inferno past three months (5 maps): 4-1 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 83.8% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
OG - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (5 maps): flameZ +16 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | mantuu +42 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | valde +17 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Aleksib -1 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
OG - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 78.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 20.4% 4v5 Conversion Rate
OG - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (4 maps): niko +14 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | mantuu +3 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Ancient past three months (11 maps): 7-4 W/L record, 40.9% pistol round win percent, 80.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 26.8% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Ancient past three months (11 maps): REZ +24 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | device +18 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | hampus -21 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Inferno past three months (7 maps): 3-4 W/L record, 64.3% pistol round win percent, 75.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.3% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (7 maps): REZ +14 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | hampus -8 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
NiP - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (7 maps): 4-3 W/L record, 64.3% pistol round win percent, 80.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 25.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
NiP - Notable performers on Dust2 past three months (7 maps): device +15 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating | hampus -15 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: OG wins 2-1.
Both of these teams typically ban Vertigo. NiP tried to get clever against Mousesports by floating Vertigo through instead of banning it, and they got severely punished in a 6-16 loss on that map. However, Vertigo is a true permaban for OG, while Mousesports have a more fluid map pool, so I do think that NiP can take the same risk of not banning Vertigo in this spot and they probably won’t get their hand caught in the cookie jar this time around. This would allow them to strengthen the map pool in their favor by banning a map that is weak for them and strong for OG, like Mirage. OG would then be the ones to ban Vertigo, which means that NiP could pick Ancient. OG have floated Ancient through in the past and have shown some willingness to play it, but they still haven’t had that opportunity yet in a pro match, and this could be their first test. Inferno would make the most sense as the map pick for OG in this scenario, while Dust2 would likely be the decider map in this scenario.
OG is a (-135) moneyline favorite against NiP, which are the same odds that Mousesports had against NiP on Tuesday, and I think that OG is a much tougher match-up for the Ninjas at the moment. OG has had tremendous success in online tournaments with this roster when they are bootcamped together, and the team is confirmed to be together in Copenhagen for the playoffs. OG is one of only two teams to go 5-0 in the group stage of this event, and they were the fifth highest rated team overall with a 1.11 Rating across 12 maps played. OG might have some tricks up their sleeve that NiP are not ready for on Ancient, but the Ninjas should be able to handle them there given the difference in experience on the map. The rest of the map pool should favor OG though, including Inferno and Dust2 if they are played. NiP does not look all that sharp as of late, while OG have been nearly untouchable while bootcamped, so I think OG should win this series, probably in a 2-1 fashion.
Favorite Draftkings Play: valde ($7,000)
Valde at $7,000 is just too cheap to pass up here. He has been one of the most consistent pieces in this OG roster for a while now, and this should be a favorable spot for him, though we have no idea how he will look on Ancient if we do see that map. He has been excellent in the past on Inferno and Mirage, which would be the two most likely options for OG's map pick. If you’re stacking OG, then valde is the first piece that I would add. He might not end up as the top frag on every map, but he should usually be in the mix at least. Mantuu would be the most likely top frag for OG, but I prefer valde slightly more on Draftkings just based on pricing, though mantuu should smash too. FlameZ has been in great form at this event and should be another solid option as well. I would much rather take Aleksib as a value play over niko, especially given pricing. Niko has monster days, but he is generally inconsistent, plus he has plenty of outside distractions with the ongoing situation involving his former coach, HUNDEN, which is just another reason for me to maybe consider lowering his priority. NiP is the not focus for me on this slate since I think they will get eliminated from the playoffs here, but hampus is my favorite on that side.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
Mantuu ($9,400) | flameZ ($8,000) | Aleksib ($5,000) | niko ($5,800) | hampus ($6,200)
Gambit (World rank: #2) vs. Vitality (World rank: #9) - 1:15 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-210) | Vitality (+170)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (+140) | Vitality +1.5 (-170)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series for the ESL Pro League Season 14 Quarter-finals.
- Gambit - Rating at event: Hobbit 1.22 | sh1ro 1.21 | Ax1Le 1.18 | nafany 1.08 | interz 0.91
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.21 | Ax1Le 1.19 | Hobbit 1.17 | nafany 1.10 | interz 0.93
- Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 1.32 | misutaaa 1.10 | apEX 1.04 | shox 1.00 | Kyojin 0.93
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.29 | misutaaa 1.11 | shox 1.02 | apEX 1.00 | Kyojin 0.97
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced each other in June at the IEM Summer 2021 upper-bracket playoffs, and Vitality won 2-0 (16-13 Dust2 / 16-8 Overpass). ZywOo and misutaaa combined for 98 kills across two maps with 50 and 48, respectively.
Map Projections:
Vitality removes Ancient
Gambit removes Nuke
Vitality picks Inferno
Gambit picks Vertigo
Vitality removes Dust2
Gambit removes Overpass
Mirage is left over
Gambit - Key stats on Inferno past three months (14 maps): 7-7 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 75.0% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 23.6% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Gambit - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (14 maps): Ax1Le +51 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | sh1ro +58 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | Hobbit +38 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (9 maps): 9-0 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 76.2% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 40.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Gambit - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (9 maps): Hobbit +49 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating | sh1ro +62 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | Ax1Le +32 K/D Diff, 1.20 Rating | nafany -4 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | interz +13 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Mirage past three months (12 maps): 9-3 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 72.9% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.5% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Gambit - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (4 maps): sh1ro +90 K/D Diff, 1.26 Rating | Ax1Le +26 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | nafany +11 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | Hobbit +5 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Inferno past three months (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 87.5% pistol round win percent, 83.6% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 30.0% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Inferno past three months (4 maps): ZywOo +47 K/D Diff, 1.59 Rating | shox +13 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | misutaaa +5 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | apEX +8 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 83.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 38.9% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): ZywOo +8 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | apEX +10 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | Kyojin +11 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | misutaaa -4 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Mirage past three months (7 maps): 5-2 W/L record, 78.6% pistol round win percent, 78.3% 5v4 Conversion Rate, 31.2% 4v5 Conversion Rate
Vitality - Notable performers on Mirage past three months (7 maps): ZywOo +34 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | apEX -12 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | misutaaa +1 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | Kyojin -3 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Prediction/Narrative: Gambit wins 2-0.
Ancient & Nuke should continue to be the initial bans for these teams, though anything can happen in the playoffs. Overpass has been the best map for Vitality in recent months, but they looked awful on T side against Complexity on Tuesday, and I doubt that they would feel confident giving Gambit CT side to start on that map, so they might look to switch it up here. Inferno would make the most sense considering Gambit have looked vulnerable on that map, but Mirage would be another map that they might consider as well. Gambit continue to be the best team in the world on Vertigo with a 29-2 W/L record across 31 maps played in 2021, and they will likely pick that map despite Vitality looking strong on it as well. Mirage would be the logical decider map in this scenario.
Vitality won this match-up last time at IEM Summer 2021, but that was part of the upper-bracket, meaning the losing team was not eliminated from the tournament, and Gambit actually went on to win the entire event. Gambit has always been a much better team when their back is against the wall, and these playoffs are single elimination, so Gambit have no wiggle room. Vitality did not do much to build confidence in their first playoff win, which was a narrow victory over a banged up Complexity squad. Meanwhile, Gambit won every series of the group stage, with the exception of their last series played, which was when they were already qualified for playoffs. Once again, their disappointing performance came when their back was not against the wall. The map pool could end up looking pretty favorable for Vitality on paper, but Gambit should have a clear edge on any map that gets played if both of these teams are playing at their best. I can’t think of a single map where Vitality would be favored, besides maybe Nuke, which is the permaban for Gambit. Gambit made it to the Grand Final of ESL Pro League S13, and I just do not see Vitality stopping them from another playoff run.
Favorite Draftkings Play: Ax1Le ($9,000)
Ax1Le had a few weak maps at the beginning of this event, but he has had a Rating of at least 1.08 across his last seven maps played, and he looks like one of the strongest options on this slate. He is now priced down to $9,000 which seems like a reasonable price considering his ceiling if he is feeling it. He’s been the best on his team on Inferno if Vitality do decide to pick that map, and his stats are really strong on every map in general. Hobbit also looks like a smash play considering he has been the highest rated player on his team at this event, and his salary is only $7,400, but I think that this is a better match-up for Ax1Le, which makes him my preferred option of the two. Sh1ro also looks great, but his $9,800 salary makes him a bit more difficult to get to. Nafany continues to be a risky value play with tremendous potential upside, while interz is much riskier with far less upside, so I certainly prefer the aggressive IGL, nafany. Vitality is not the focus for me, but ZywOo is almost always a good choice for DFS and he could even be used as a one-off here with two Gambit players. Misutaaa would be my next favorite choice, but I think that he will struggle along with his team, while ZywOo is typically much safer even in a loss.
Other Favorites (In order of priority):
Hobbit ($7,400) | sh1ro ($9,800) | nafany ($6,400) | ZywOo ($8,200) | interz ($5,400)
*Favorite Stacks: Gambit, OG
*Favorite Captain Plays: Ax1Le, mantuu, sh1ro, flameZ, ZywOo
*Favorite Value Plays: valde, Hobbit, Aleksib, nafany