Natus Vincere (World rank: #1) vs. ENCE (World rank: #20) - 10:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: NAVI (-420) | ENCE (+315) 

Map Handicap: NAVI -1.5 (-115) | ENCE +1.5 (-105)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+135) | Under 2.5 (-165)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the ESL Pro League Season 14 Quarter-finals.
  • NAVI - Rating at event: s1mple 1.33 | Perfecto 1.13 | electronic 1.09 | B1T 1.04 | Boombl4 1.03
  • NAVI - Rating past three months: s1mple 1.35 | electronic 1.15 | B1T 1.11 | Perfecto 1.07 | Boombl4 0.95
  • ENCE - Rating at event: hades 1.24 | dycha 1.19 | doto 1.15 | Spinx 1.13 | Snappi 1.09
  • ENCE - Rating past three months: Spinx 1.18 | hades 1.15 | dycha 1.12 | doto 1.07 | Snappi 1.03

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other.

Prediction/Narrative: NAVI wins 2-0.

ENCE have been the second highest rated team at this event so far with a 1.16 Rating across 13 maps played, though NAVI are not far behind in third with a 1.12 Rating across 10 maps at ESL Pro League Season 14. I have been really impressed with the level of Counter-Strike being played by ENCE at the moment, but I do not expect them to have much of a chance against the number one rated team in the world, NAVI. 

Nuke has been the most played map for ENCE in recent months, but NAVI are on a nine map win streak on that map and s1mple is statistically the best Nuke player in the world. Thus, ENCE would be better off picking Ancient, which has been a strong map for them, and it also takes NAVI out of their comfort zone a bit, though their stats are still solid on Ancient as well. NAVI usually likes to pick Dust2 in spots like these, so that would be their most likely choice of map here. Maybe ENCE could put up a good fight on Ancient, but NAVI probably just run away with that map since they would start on the favorable CT side. The rest of the map pool should be significantly in the favor of NAVI without a doubt. There is always a chance that NAVI disrespect ENCE and end up throwing rounds because they’re too comfortable, but other than that, NAVI should dominate. 

Favorite Draftkings Play: b1t ($6,600) 

I have no idea why Draftkings decided to price b1t all the way down to $6,600 in this spot, but you better believe that he is a top priority for me on Draftkings. At this price, I think that b1t will end up as the best value play on the entire slate. He hasn’t done much at this event, but he has continued to post consistent results since he became the full time fifth member of NAVI. B1t should smash here, and his price is just way too cheap to pass up. S1mple is the most expensive option on the slate at $9,800, but he should be another excellent play to pair with b1t. This is a good spot for electronic and Perfecto too, especially given the level of play that Perfecto has been showing lately, but both of them seem slightly too expensive on this slate, so they aren't as much of a priority. Boombl4 is always a risky choice, but I do think that this could be a decent spot to take some shots on him if you need to save some salary. I am staying away from ENCE on Friday, but hades would be my favorite option on that side. 

Other Favorites (In order of priority):

s1mple ($9,800) | Perfecto ($8,000) | electronic ($9,200) | Boombl4 ($5,800) 

 

Heroic (World rank: #7) vs. Liquid (World rank: #13) - 1:15 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-140) | Liquid (+115) 

Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+210) | Liquid +1.5 (-265)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-125)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the ESL Pro League Season 14 Quarter-finals.
  • Heroic - Rating at event: stavn 1.27 | refrezh 1.23 | TeSeS 1.20 | sjuush 1.11 | cadiaN 1.09
  • Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.14 | TeSeS 1.14 | cadiaN 1.09 | sjuush 1.08 | refrezh 1.02
  • Liquid - Rating at event: NAF 1.17 | EliGE 1.15 | FalleN 1.09 | Grim 1.09 | Stewie2k 0.97
  • Liquid - Rating past three months: NAF 1.12 | EliGE 1.08 | Grim 1.04 | FalleN 1.03 | Stewie2K 0.94

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. Both of these teams have changed their lineups since their last meeting in 2020.

Prediction/Narrative: Heroic wins 2-1.

I think there are arguments to be made for both sides winning this series, but ultimately, I think that Heroic is just the better team. Liquid have been in their best form ever with this roster so far at Pro League, and they have a 1.09 Rating across their 14 maps played, which puts them as the sixth highest rated team overall. However, let’s not forget that Heroic went 5-0 during group stage and are the number one highest rated team at this event with a 1.18 Rating across 12 maps played. Sure, they have plenty of outside distractions taking away from their ability to focus due to the ongoing HUNDEN scandal. But is that enough for me to give Liquid an edge? I don’t quite think so. 

Inferno has been the best map for Liquid as of late, and they will likely choose it as their map pick. Heroic were on a four map losing streak earlier in the year on Inferno where they weren’t really playing the map all that much, but it was a strong map for them prior to that, and they have now won their last three times on Inferno against strong opponents: Astralis, Vitality and Spirit. I think that the map could be extremely close, though I’d give a slight edge to Liquid based on recent form. As for the rest of the map pool, I’d give a clear edge to Heroic on Nuke and Vertigo, with Nuke being their most likely map pick. Overpass and Mirage would pretty much be coinflips, but I give an edge to Heroic in general as the better team in my opinion. We saw a monster performance from FalleN on Wednesday, though that is not something that Liquid can really rely on very often. This series could be a close one. 

Favorite Draftkings Play: cadiaN ($7,200)

CadiaN had a quiet group stage for ESL Pro League Season 14, but he didn’t really need to do much. His team pretty much just dominated, only dropping two of their 12 maps played. CadiaN seems to always show up when Heroic need their fearless leader the most, and I expect to see him taking aggressive AWP duels and making plays for his team on Friday. $7,200 just seems way too cheap for the upside that cadiaN has shown in the past, and I expect him to have a big day if Heroic are to win this series. TeSeS, stavn and sjuush are all cheap enough that they look like solid plays as well, but I do wonder if stacking three from Heroic is too risky here given that this could be a really competitive series. Refrezh had a 1.23 Rating in the group stage and is only $5,200 in this spot, and he will continue to be a high risk, high reward play. If he can continue to play at that high of a level, then he would be a no brainer DFS play, and Heroic would win easily. I’m not expecting a consistent performance from him, but if you need to save some salary then he does make a lot of sense as a value option. Having some exposure to Liquid could make sense too if this stays close, and my favorites in order would be EliGE, Grim, then NAF. 

 

Other Favorites (In order of priority):

TeSeS ($8,600) | refrezh ($5,200) | stavn ($7,800) | EliGE ($8,200) | sjuush ($6,200) | Grim ($7,000) | NAF ($9,000) 

 

*Favorite Stacks: NAVI, Heroic

*Favorite Captain Plays: s1mple, cadiaN, electronic, TeSeS, Perfecto, stavn

*Favorite Value Plays: b1t, refrezh, sjuush, boombl4